UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

[piglord]

i haven't watched any tape on stevie ray yet but i think alan patrick is completely legit. if he opens as a dog i will probably play him.

 

[Joseph Budden]

i haven't watched any tape on stevie ray yet but i think alan patrick is completely legit. if he opens as a dog i will probably play him.

He almost certainly will

 

[crewman]

can somebody please talk me out of including Nelson in a parlay? He's gonna win, obvs, but betting on shot heavyweights is stoooooopid. Yet I find myself drawn to doing it...help?

Its a HW fight and a well placed shot can end the fight, yes, even if you have a good chin like Roy. (Arlovksi knocked Roy out before)

And Bigfoot also has a recent decent win over Soa the Hulk so its not like its a total squash match.

Bigfoot can gameplan to get Nelson tired like what he did to Reem but the problem is, Roy surprisingly (by the way he looks) actually has good cardio, he had Reem in trouble late in their fight, and kept up a good pace for a full 5 rounds against Barnett.

If I were Bigfoots coach I would advise him to look for the KO early on in the fight and try to shock the world. Apart from that or a bad judges decision I don't see a way for Bigfoot to win.

 

[Sham5916910]

Thats true but he didn't look great even in his win vs Rosholt. I definitely think Nelson wins this, probably in the first round but at his current odds there is just no value in him.

Roy was hesitant against Rosholt due to the takedown threat.

 

[EzFlyer]

Thoughts on Pepey vs De La Torre? I wanna watch some tape on De La Torre but initial lean is Pepey at -150 or better. Its a battle of the explosive guy with barely any skills against the skilled jiu jitsu guy with zero fight IQ. But I don't think Pepey will be as lost here as he was against Elkins, and likely finds a sub.

SUPER tough fight.

DLT is an enigma, tho. as weird as pepey is (and he is a weirdo), DLT is more erratic to me. every time i think he's legit, he gets ko'd. everytime i say "k f this guy" he looks legit.

pepey rd 1 in brazil is NEVER a bad idea..

 

[Sham5916910]

Roy and Bigfoot are pure fade material at this point. But Nelson ate huge bombs from Lewis and kept going. Bigfoot is the most shot fighter I have ever seen in the UFC.

I understand why people dont want to pay juice on Nelson tho... he is awful these days.

I don't think Roy is awful he just struggles against top tier fighters and that's all hes been facing lately. He just lost to the Black Beast and the decision could have gone his way. When he has fought anyone outside of the top tier he has wrecked them (besides Rosholt who as i said above he was hesitant with due to the takedown threat).

 

[Sham5916910]

Its a HW fight and a well placed shot can end the fight, yes, even if you have a good chin like Roy. (Arlovksi knocked Roy out before)

And Bigfoot also has a recent decent win over Soa the Hulk so its not like its a total squash match.

Bigfoot can gameplan to get Nelson tired like what he did to Reem but the problem is, Roy surprisingly (by the way he looks) actually has good cardio, he had Reem in trouble late in their fight, and kept up a good pace for a full 5 rounds against Barnett.

If I were Bigfoots coach I would advise him to look for the KO early on in the fight and try to shock the world. Apart from that or a bad judges decision I don't see a way for Bigfoot to win.

Just on Soa it looked to me like he was going to gnp BF for the stoppage win but BF was saved by the bell.

 

[crewman]

For those who have been around a while........ Is barry a troll? I mean ever since I have been lurking here he has been making picks and seriously I think he might be right 25% of the time. From what i can see, he is just a troll that may suck some newbie people into believing that he actually is a good capper and they lose money by tailing his posts.

lol, I think Barry is the long time troll account of MMA Goodfella.

Just on Soa it looked to me like he was going to gnp BF for the stoppage win but BF was saved by the bell.

yeah Soa was clearly going all out though which is why he gassed himself out. I can also see him doing something similar to Nelson.

 

[quincy k]

I have a little on o2.5, too. Both guys are pretty durable.

Felder is asking for donations to pay for his coaches to come with him to Brazil...I'm guessing this is the first time hes fought outside the US? (Canada doesn't count if he fought there)

if felder cant afford 1k tickets for his coaches then there is a good chance hes on a budget himself and flies to brazil late, with layovers and may not acclimate himself to the altitude not to mention the jet lag of taking over 15 hours to get there.

and then he also has to get past the judges where no one other than people betting on him will think twice if he gets robbed

 

[EzFlyer]

i haven't watched any tape on stevie ray yet but i think alan patrick is completely legit. if he opens as a dog i will probably play him.

ray is always heavily favored

 

[EzFlyer]

if felder cant afford 1k tickets for his coaches then there is a good chance hes on a budget himself and flies to brazil late, with layovers and may not acclimate himself to the altitude not to mention the jet lag of taking over 15 hours to get there.

and then he also has to get past the judges where no one other than people betting on him will think twice if he gets robbed

yep. i'm a felder fan, despite him being a letdown in a couple fights where he should've done way better.. but i think this is a tough spot for him.

 

[Oblivian]

Barry is one of the best trolls that I've ever seen on this site. He wasn't always a troll either. He's been around forever.

 

[EzFlyer]

it's amazing that he never breaks character, i'll give him that.

 

[piglord]

interesting read on alan patrick:

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/09/ufc-li...-streets-of-brasilia-now-he-returns-as-a-star

 

[quincy k]

yep. i'm a felder fan, despite him being a letdown in a couple fights where he should've done way better.. but i think this is a tough spot for him.

i might bet trinaldo now, but if not, 100 percent a solid live betting opportunity if francisco were to lose the first round and get offered at plus money

 

[iGnP]

if felder cant afford 1k tickets for his coaches then there is a good chance hes on a budget himself and flies to brazil late, with layovers and may not acclimate himself to the altitude not to mention the jet lag of taking over 15 hours to get there.

and then he also has to get past the judges where no one other than people betting on him will think twice if he gets robbed

acclimate himself to altitude? Brasilia isn't at elevation

 

[Bork Lazer]

Coming clean because I'm a no bullshit capper and when I lose I'm man enough to admit it. This is not how most online touts behave so you know I have integrity.
One of my unlucky nights where I lost money and trust me this is not the norm. So this is what I'm gonna do:
Gonna rollover my picks from UFN94 to UFC95 and you're going to get some extra free picks and as word is my bond I'mma win you guys some money. You tell me
another dude who looks after his followers like me. I ain't leaving no soldier behind on the battlefield we keep on grinding till we make that dough.

- Barry

BARRY! BARRY! Waiting on those locks from a professional capper with bated breath.

I got to know your picks so I can bet the exact opposite. 60% of the time, this strategy works everytime.

 

[EzFlyer]

I didn't play Brown or Belal last weekend because I didn't see any value there, especially with a green fighter like Brown but I honestly think Nelson, Barao and Santos have value. They are all squash matches.

Do you think they only win their fights 50% of the time? I think it's much higher, so there's value there. There was no value on Brown at all, he should have been like -200 if not higher like I expected him to

yep.

absolutely massive bet for me on the over on ortiz-formiga, and i have no intentions of hedging unless it gets to +250 at least. even then, idk.

15 straight O2.5's. can't stress that enough. ortiz has no power, he can only finish guys if he wears them out and gets late 3rd stoppage (don't see that happening w/formiga), and he's super durable and a cardio machine. he's built for o2.5's. obviously.

 

[quincy k]

acclimate himself to altitude? Brasilia isn't at elevation

4000 feet elevation.

its not mile high denver but everything counts in a fight that in all likelihood is going to go the distance. it could easily be 1/1 going into the third and elevation, coming into brazil four days before the fight, 15+hour flight, weight cut...i see no value on betting felder here

 

[Joseph Budden]

4000 feet elevation.

its not mile high denver but everything counts in a fight that in all likelihood is going to go the distance. it could easily be 1/1 going into the third and elevation, coming into brazil four days before the fight, 15+hour flight, weight cut...i see no value on betting felder here

Wow nice spot. 4000 ft elevation is no joke at all.