Danis/Walker
If you are a -1000 favorite in your debut, there's a reason for it. Danis is an elite grappler, in the class at least of the Gordon Ryans and Gary Tonons of the world. Walker has lost his last 2 fights by sub. I think it's kind of obvious what Bellator is trying to do here. Obviously nobody wants to lay -1000 juice, that's just dumb. Esp on a guy in his debut. I took FDNGD when it was -350, but even that is -465 now. Danis itd is -375. IDK, I guess I like my DNGD action at -350 as Danis should get a sub win, but with current odds I guess either put a microscopic bet on Walker +800 or just pass.
Lovato/Harris
I put a little flier on Harris dec when it was +790, but it's down to +575 now, so little to no value at all. Lovato should handle Harris. But -475, nah. Odds probably about right overall. Harris is game, so maybe o2.5 or FGD are in play, but again, I just don't see a ton of value on anything.
Torres/Gracie
Gracie -1100. Yeah...no. I guess if you want to take a small flier on Torres +900 it's hard to argue. MMA is weird, and you can essentially risk almost nothing for a decent payout if something bizarre happens. Personally I like DNGD at -155. If a guy is a -1100 favorite with 6 finishes in 7 fights, you kind of expect him to finish. Gracie itd is -152 so for essentially the same price you can take DNGD. U1.5 at +147 could be worth a small stab too. On the mat, Gracie should be able to gain dominant position pretty quickly.
Sicilia/Sanchez
Sanchez should grind Sam out, but Sicilia does throw wild power shots so a stab at Sam itd at +1100 isn't awful (as long as it's a very small amount). I said in another post I like u2.5 at +210 better than Sanchez itd at +191 I think. Most likely is Sanchez winning an easy decision, but not sure paying the juice on that makes sense.
Mir /Fedor
Talked about a lot, I'm big on u1.5 at -145. I think both guys will throw power shots and one will land and that will be it. Two questionable chins with guys around 40. I think that if this doesn't end in round 1 or early in round 2 though, both guys could slow down a lot and then maybe we see hugging and sloppiness that makes it to the cards. FGD +347...IDK maybe if you really think neither guy starches the other early. Mir dec +548, Fedor dec +775 if you have a lean. I like Mir to win, but I don't heavily favor him at all. -135 seems at least close to being right imo. I have him -140 but very small and doubt I'll add to it.
I threw a few RR's out there with some props for fun, but honestly this seems like a good card to keep action pretty small overall. Just how I see it.
