Trump's Border Wall and The Upcoming Elections

[glenwo2]

If the Dems put up a great candidate Trump is going to get destroyed.

That's a big "IF", though.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I linked you to a 2005 report from two Bear Stearns analysts who thought the real figure was about 20 million at that time. They used school enrollments, housing permits, foreign remittances and border crossings to arrive at their estimate. I don't endorse their figure, but I think their approach is far more sensible than relying on census figures.

Do they have a materially different estimate of the rate of change over the past decade? Note that the conclusion that you'd be checking materiality against is that the scope of the problem has reduced to the point that a rational gov't would deprioritize it.

As for the "free money" thing, I don't think the simplistic assumptions from microeconomics are reflective of reality. I think they are closer to reality in the case of legal immigration than illegal immigration.

I value clarity more than anything else here, as I don't generally expect anyone to change their minds even when presented with overwhelmingly strong arguments that they were wrong, and I think that's lacking here. First you brought up my claim to a lesser poster in a way that implied that it was self-evidently false and outrageously so. Then you appeared to endorse the claim. Now you're suggesting (you're not addressing the claim head on) that it is conventional wisdom but that conventional wisdom may be wrong in this case. If it is--and you've made no attempt to explain how--that still makes the statement at least defensible, I'd think.

If you said that corporate taxes should be eliminated because their incidence falls primarily on workers, I'd think it would be bad cricket to try to rile say, @VivaRevolution or @The Diplomat by bringing it up as something outrageous that you said. I don't really agree with the claim, but it falls in the area of something that reasonable people disagree about. And, actually, I think that there's much more support for the idea that "immigration is free money" than there is that corporate tax incidence falls primarily on workers (that is, the former is pretty close to a solid, uncontroversial claim while the latter is a controversial one that might be true).

 

[woodguyatl]

I think that would hurt him come November, if he put his foot down as I assume that many of his supporters don't actually want to see that much money spent on a wall.

Glad to hear the problem "has been fixed"- It is hard to believe that there are morons there who say this with a straight face.




Edit: I would like to add something. I think the wall could be a positive thing as well. It could create many jobs and would become a major, major tourist attraction. I could see the wall lined with resorts, amusement parks, strip malls, etc. It would employ and attract many people. There is great weather all year in most of that region too.

Overall, I don't see it as a practical solution but it could also serve as a symbol.

Unemployment under 4% (generally considered a state of full employment) and we want to create more jobs? Who would fill them?

 

[Tekk]

Good troll. Keep trolling.

Idk why you think that's trolling its just an honest assesment of trumps character. I think his constant adultery is definitely a sign of poor judgement.

 

[bufetadanacara]

Because the left parades crying women and children around as the face of illegal immigration. They give them romantic tags like "Dreamers." The left in this country are driven purely by emotion. They don't see the forest for the trees.

I know, it is hard to believe. I think that many Democrats are probably against illegal immigration but fear being called "Hitler" if they say as much.



They are sheep and only know what is portrayed to them by the media.

Unemployment under 4% (generally considered a state of full employment) and we want to create more jobs? Who would fill them?

If you believe that only 4% of able bodied people are working, then I have a bridge to sell you.

Start cutting welfare and start sending them to the wall!

 

[woodguyatl]

I know, it is hard to believe. I think that many Democrats are probably against illegal immigration but fear being called "Hitler" if they say as much.



They are sheep and only know what is portrayed to them by the media.



If you believe that only 4% of able bodied people are working, then I have a bridge to sell you.

Start cutting welfare and start sending them to the wall!

Trump said it is under 4%. I believe him.

 

[bufetadanacara]

Trump said it is under 4%. I believe him.

Do you understand how it is calculated?

 

[zebby23]

That's a big "IF", though.

Yes... Yes it is

 

[kenetics]

In my view, there is no single issue that can rev up Trump's base more than illegal immigration. Trump's "wall" was the centerpiece of his platform. In national polls, Republicans cite immigration as the #1 most important issue facing the USA.

700 miles long, 30 ft. high. No need to build over mountains and other natural barriers for now.

So where is it?

Trump has been in office for nearly two years. His party has held the House and the Senate during this period.

Here we are, 20 days out from the budget deadline. It's the last budget deadline before the alleged "blue wave" could pour in and wipe out any chance for legislative implementation of the wall or any other part of Trump's agenda.

Two days ago, Ryan and McConnell supposedly went to the White House to try to convince Trump not to push for the wall until after the mid-terms. Unless I'm missing something, this would be a huge political mistake. A shutdown battle over the wall would rev up the Trump base like none other. Without the boost, losing the House is a major possibility.

If the Rs lose the House how much wall funding do you think Trump can get?

The answer is zero.

So what are McConnell/Ryan doing? My guess is they are suckling the teets of their wealthy donors, who don't want the wall primarily because their business interests depend on cheap labor.

Almost no one seems to be writing about it, but we have arrived at a key moment in the Trump presidency. Is Trump merely a master media manipulator, or does he have what it takes to be a courageous commander of consequence?

If the former, perhaps Trump is destined to be a transitional president, rather than a transformational president.

The wall will never be done. Deal with it.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Is Mexico still paying for it?

 

[waiguoren]

Santa Teresa, NM

 

[Trotsky]

My guess is they are suckling the teets of their wealthy donors, who don't want the wall primarily because their business interests depend on cheap labor.

LOL @ thinking that a wall would have any more than a marginal effect on the importation of cheap labor, or that undocumented immigrants are vital to more than a handful of industries like agriculture and hospitality. The biggest donors to the GOP are in oil and finance, neither of which depend on undocumented labor.

This entire "the corporations want cheap labor" shit is moronic. The fact is that the wall is a stupid policy and a giant waste of money. And, on top of the tens of billions required to build it, for it to be even be remotely effective, it would require billions more every year in monitoring and security. You don't need corrupting influences to oppose such a dumb idea.

 

[waiguoren]

LOL @ thinking that a wall would have any more than a marginal effect on the importation of cheap labor,

My belief is that most illegal immigrant labor comes across the southern border rather than overstaying a visa. Do you disagree?

or that undocumented immigrants are vital to more than a handful of industries like agriculture and hospitality.

Big Ag is huge and very influential in politics.

And, on top of the tens of billions required to build it, for it to be even be remotely effective, it would require billions more every year in monitoring and security. You don't need corrupting influences to oppose such a dumb idea.

Given the size of the overall budget, 10s of billions is a tiny investment for reduction in illegal immigration and a substantial reduction in heroin/fentanyl/cocaine/meth coming into the country. Israel's wall has worked well and cost only a small percentage of government spending.

 

[Neph]

Given the size of the overall budget, 10s of billions is a tiny investment for reduction in illegal immigration and a substantial reduction in heroin/fentanyl/cocaine/meth coming into the country. Israel's wall has worked well and cost only a small percentage of government spending.

It doesn't matter how much it costs because Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it

 

[Limbo Pete]

It doesn't matter how much it costs because Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it

Any day now

 

[waiguoren]

@bufetadanacara

Check out the article I added to the OP. Click into it and read some of the 2,500 comments. This is why I think Trump is making a big mistake if he listens to Ryan/McConnell.

 

[waiguoren]

Read the edited post. This site is so buggy it takes forever to edit.

P.s you’re missing the political element to this move, immigration will fire up the left, we don’t want that.

No, I'm not missing that. You're missing that the "left" is already at a 11/10 level of enthusiasm. The Trump people are at a 7/10. The wall will get them to 10/10.

The last time the Democrats forced a shutdown over immigration (standalone DACA bill), they got their asses kicked.

 

[bobgeese]

No, I'm not missing that. You're missing that the "left" is already at a 11/10 level of enthusiasm. The Trump people are at a 7/10. The wall will get them to 10/10.

The last time the Democrats forced a shutdown over immigration (standalone DACA bill), they got their asses kicked.

We’ll have to agree to disagree about the first part.

IMO, National security and the economy far outweigh the Wall. As long as they show their success there, they are pushing policies everyone can get behind.

Your last point is correct, however it’s best timed for next year. Force them to choose illegals over Americans right at the start of the 2020 campaign.

 

[waiguoren]

historically speaking, the longer walls are, the less effective they seem to be. there is probably a mathematical proof for that lol. and it would seem that such a concept is just common sense, too.

border wall guard makes what, 40k a year? think about the resources the cartels and even human smugglers have. theyll pay 40k a month to turn a blind eye. the mongols did the same shit to the chinese.

The Israeli wall is 440 miles and highly effective. You're telling me 700 miles will be ineffective?

I'm not claiming the wall is the only solution needed. It's an important piece of a larger solution. The Border Patrol's union agrees. Why do you think they endorsed Donald Trump for president in their first-ever presidential endorsement?

 

[waiguoren]

We’ll have to agree to disagree about the first part.

IMO, National security and the economy far outweigh the Wall. As long as they show their success there, they are pushing policies everyone can get behind.

Your last point is correct, however it’s best timed for next year. Force them to choose illegals over Americans right at the start of the 2020 campaign.

Right now on Breitbart you can find literally thousands of die-hard Trumpist/Bannonist people who are enraged that Trump's vision is again taking a backseat to Ryan's and McConnell's plans. These people are going to be discouraged from voting in November.

On the other hand, the #resistance people are motivated like I have never seen in my lifetime.