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With all the muslim threads going on constantly and frankly bizarre numbers being thrown around, I thought I would finally take the time to look into the statistics. This thread is not about whether the muslim ideology is good or bad. Personally, I dislike fundamentalism in all shapes and forms and it's no secret the muslim faith has substantial amount of that. However, the figures often mentioned does not always comport with reality. This is purely to put some of the misinformation to rest.
THE CURRENT STATE OF MUSLIMS IN EUROPE
Demographics of Northern and Central European Countries
Ireland
Ethnicity: 82,2% White Irish, 9,5% white other
Religion: 92.0% christian, 6.2% unaffiliated, 1.4% muslim
(1, 2)
United Kingdom
Ethnicity: 87% White British
Religion: 59% christian, 25% unaffiliated and 4-6% muslim
(1, 3).
Sweden
Ethnicity: 75,9% Swedish
Religion: 67% christian, 27% unaffiliated, 4,6-8% muslim
About 76 are ethnically Swedish, and immigration is on a sharp decline, with Syrian refugees being down 34% from last year. Add to that 2% of the population are foreign born from Africa and 4,2% from the middle east which here include: Iran, Irak, Afghanistan and Syria (1, 4, 5, 6).
Denmark
Ethnicity: 87% Danish
Religion: 84,5% christian, 11,8% unaffiliated, 4-5,3% muslim
Non-western ethnicity including second generation accounts for about 7% of the population.
(7, 8).
Norway
Ethnicity: 84% Norweigan
Religion: 84,7% christian, 10,1% unaffiliated, 4% muslim
(9, 10).
Germany
Ethnicity: 80% German, 90% European
Religon: 68.7% christian, 24.7% unaffiliated, 5.8-6,1% muslim
(1, 11)
France
Ethnicity: 89% French
Religion: 63.0% christian, 28% unaffiliated, 7.5%-9% muslim
(1,12, 12(2))
Belgium
Ethnicity: 75-85% Belgian
Religion: 64.2% christian, 29% unaffiliated, 5.9% muslim.
(1, 13, 14)
European Union Total
Ethnicity: 92,5% European
Religion: 74,5% Christian, 18.8% Unaffiliated and 4,9% Muslim
On average 74~% are christian, 18.8% unaffiliated and 5.9% muslim. This includes countries like Albania and Kosovo which are almost exclusively muslim (80-90%). They are however not migrants or refugees. The European Union (EU), which is a better representation, has a population of 4,9% muslims. EU citizens are 92,5% ethnically European (1, 9-2).
The percentage of muslims in Europe is vastly overstimated. In fact, surveys show that Europeans themselves overestimate the muslim population several times over (15).
A side note here to consider is the difference between being culturally religious and practicing your religion. In a Danish study by "Islamic Thought" at the University Of Copenhagen, they estimated that about 40-50% of muslims living in Denmark was cultural muslims, meaning not practicing (16). Part of this can be explained by children of muslim parents being calculated as muslims in the statistics, when they might not always identify as muslims. Denmark is a very secular country, so that's another thing to consider. World Vision Research Group of Germany estimated that about 20% of German muslims where living as secular muslims (17). In Belgium, a 2005 survey found that only 10% of muslims were practicing (18), although what that means exactly in this context is not stated. Another Belgian 2010 survey found that the majority of muslims wanted religious freedom and the freedom to decide to leave islam if a person wanted to (19).
THE FUTURE OF MUSLIMS IN EUROPE:
Pew Research did a 2015 analysis at the height of the Syrian refugee crisis, the largest refugee crisis of our time (20), attempting to make projections about the muslim population in Europe from 2016 to 2050 (21). It included three different scenarios:
1) No migration, 2) Medium migration and 3) Highest migration:
Zero migration would assume no migration or refugees, which is not realistic, so let's put that aside.
High migration would assume the same number of refugee influx as in 2014-2016, at the height of Syria crisis as mentioned, each year for the next 35 years straight which also is not realistic (and we already know now not the case). We will remove that as well.
That leaves us the medium immigration scenario.
In this scenario, from 2016 to 2050, Europe will go from a population of muslim at 4,9% to 11,2%. So roughly ten percent of the population in Europe will be muslim in 2050. However, there are two important factors in regards to this projection.
1. Fertility rates.
The article states that: "Europe are assumed to have fertility rates that match those of Muslims in their destination countries"
If you look at fertility rates of major muslims countries, they have been dropping sharply in the last few decades. Going back 35 years (same as the projection ahead), from 1980 to 2015, the following countries fell as shown in the graph below:
Afghanistan: 7,45 to 4,80
Irak: 6,57 to 4,43
Pakistan: 6,53 to 3,35
Syria: 7,09 to 2,97
Indonesia: 4,43 to 2,39
India: 4,84 to 2,35
Libya: 7,22 to 2,30
Turkey: 4,40 to 2,09
Iran: 6,48 to 1,69
Average: 6,10 to 2,93
(22).
With this drop, it is reasonable to assume that the fertility rate will drop further and not stay the same untill year 2050. So the basis for initial comparison is a bit shaky.
In regards to European muslims, they use the following projections:
Which again assumes that fertility rates stays the same. This seems unfeasable as immigrant fertility rate has been dropping in most European countries during the last decade (23). Further, numbers from Austria and Germany shows that the fertility rate of muslim women is falling in both countries and is now simular to the ethnic population in some demographics (24).
2. Immigrant influx
The projected immigrant data used from 2014-2015 is hardly reliable considering the steep drop Europe has seen in asylum seekers and refugees since the height of the crisis in 2015. In this year, Germany took the biggest number of asylum seekers out of any country in Europe. This was a staggering 890.000 people. Last year (2017), that number was down to 186.644:
As the German Interior Minister, de Maizière, said in January: ""The crisis of the extremely high figure of 2015 and 2016 has been overcome" (25).
Sweden went from 156.110 in 2015, to 22.190 in 2017. Denmark went from 20.825 in 2015, to 3.125 in 2017. Norway went from 30.470 in 2015, to 3.350 in 2017 (26). Bear in mind, these are people seeking asylum, not necessarily being granted it.
In fact, Europe as a whole has seen a substantial drop in asylum seekers and refugees, about 50% since 2015, and this number is likely to keep decreasing (27):
This could not have been predicted in 2015, therefor it is fair to assume that Pew Research might have overstated the projected immigrant influx.
In summary:
European Union is over 90% ethnic Europeans. EU is about 4,9% muslim. Europe has been projected by some estimates to become 11,2% muslim in 2050, however this data may be overstated and going with current trends the number may be lower. Ultimately, no one can predict all these variables, but declining fertility rates amongst muslims, a sharp decline in asylum seekers and tighter immigration policy will probably keep the number in the low-mid end estimates.
EDIT:
Corrections on Sweden ethnicity numbers and France muslim numbers after input from @Son of Jamin and @Kindacrazy
Sources:
THE CURRENT STATE OF MUSLIMS IN EUROPE
Demographics of Northern and Central European Countries
Ireland
Ethnicity: 82,2% White Irish, 9,5% white other
Religion: 92.0% christian, 6.2% unaffiliated, 1.4% muslim
(1, 2)
United Kingdom
Ethnicity: 87% White British
Religion: 59% christian, 25% unaffiliated and 4-6% muslim
(1, 3).
Sweden
Ethnicity: 75,9% Swedish
Religion: 67% christian, 27% unaffiliated, 4,6-8% muslim
About 76 are ethnically Swedish, and immigration is on a sharp decline, with Syrian refugees being down 34% from last year. Add to that 2% of the population are foreign born from Africa and 4,2% from the middle east which here include: Iran, Irak, Afghanistan and Syria (1, 4, 5, 6).
Denmark
Ethnicity: 87% Danish
Religion: 84,5% christian, 11,8% unaffiliated, 4-5,3% muslim
Non-western ethnicity including second generation accounts for about 7% of the population.
(7, 8).
Norway
Ethnicity: 84% Norweigan
Religion: 84,7% christian, 10,1% unaffiliated, 4% muslim
(9, 10).
Germany
Ethnicity: 80% German, 90% European
Religon: 68.7% christian, 24.7% unaffiliated, 5.8-6,1% muslim
(1, 11)
France
Ethnicity: 89% French
Religion: 63.0% christian, 28% unaffiliated, 7.5%-9% muslim
(1,12, 12(2))
Belgium
Ethnicity: 75-85% Belgian
Religion: 64.2% christian, 29% unaffiliated, 5.9% muslim.
(1, 13, 14)
European Union Total
Ethnicity: 92,5% European
Religion: 74,5% Christian, 18.8% Unaffiliated and 4,9% Muslim
On average 74~% are christian, 18.8% unaffiliated and 5.9% muslim. This includes countries like Albania and Kosovo which are almost exclusively muslim (80-90%). They are however not migrants or refugees. The European Union (EU), which is a better representation, has a population of 4,9% muslims. EU citizens are 92,5% ethnically European (1, 9-2).
The percentage of muslims in Europe is vastly overstimated. In fact, surveys show that Europeans themselves overestimate the muslim population several times over (15).
A side note here to consider is the difference between being culturally religious and practicing your religion. In a Danish study by "Islamic Thought" at the University Of Copenhagen, they estimated that about 40-50% of muslims living in Denmark was cultural muslims, meaning not practicing (16). Part of this can be explained by children of muslim parents being calculated as muslims in the statistics, when they might not always identify as muslims. Denmark is a very secular country, so that's another thing to consider. World Vision Research Group of Germany estimated that about 20% of German muslims where living as secular muslims (17). In Belgium, a 2005 survey found that only 10% of muslims were practicing (18), although what that means exactly in this context is not stated. Another Belgian 2010 survey found that the majority of muslims wanted religious freedom and the freedom to decide to leave islam if a person wanted to (19).
THE FUTURE OF MUSLIMS IN EUROPE:
Pew Research did a 2015 analysis at the height of the Syrian refugee crisis, the largest refugee crisis of our time (20), attempting to make projections about the muslim population in Europe from 2016 to 2050 (21). It included three different scenarios:
1) No migration, 2) Medium migration and 3) Highest migration:
Zero migration would assume no migration or refugees, which is not realistic, so let's put that aside.
High migration would assume the same number of refugee influx as in 2014-2016, at the height of Syria crisis as mentioned, each year for the next 35 years straight which also is not realistic (and we already know now not the case). We will remove that as well.
That leaves us the medium immigration scenario.
In this scenario, from 2016 to 2050, Europe will go from a population of muslim at 4,9% to 11,2%. So roughly ten percent of the population in Europe will be muslim in 2050. However, there are two important factors in regards to this projection.
1. Fertility rates.
The article states that: "Europe are assumed to have fertility rates that match those of Muslims in their destination countries"
If you look at fertility rates of major muslims countries, they have been dropping sharply in the last few decades. Going back 35 years (same as the projection ahead), from 1980 to 2015, the following countries fell as shown in the graph below:
Afghanistan: 7,45 to 4,80
Irak: 6,57 to 4,43
Pakistan: 6,53 to 3,35
Syria: 7,09 to 2,97
Indonesia: 4,43 to 2,39
India: 4,84 to 2,35
Libya: 7,22 to 2,30
Turkey: 4,40 to 2,09
Iran: 6,48 to 1,69
Average: 6,10 to 2,93
(22).
With this drop, it is reasonable to assume that the fertility rate will drop further and not stay the same untill year 2050. So the basis for initial comparison is a bit shaky.
In regards to European muslims, they use the following projections:
Which again assumes that fertility rates stays the same. This seems unfeasable as immigrant fertility rate has been dropping in most European countries during the last decade (23). Further, numbers from Austria and Germany shows that the fertility rate of muslim women is falling in both countries and is now simular to the ethnic population in some demographics (24).
2. Immigrant influx
The projected immigrant data used from 2014-2015 is hardly reliable considering the steep drop Europe has seen in asylum seekers and refugees since the height of the crisis in 2015. In this year, Germany took the biggest number of asylum seekers out of any country in Europe. This was a staggering 890.000 people. Last year (2017), that number was down to 186.644:
As the German Interior Minister, de Maizière, said in January: ""The crisis of the extremely high figure of 2015 and 2016 has been overcome" (25).
Sweden went from 156.110 in 2015, to 22.190 in 2017. Denmark went from 20.825 in 2015, to 3.125 in 2017. Norway went from 30.470 in 2015, to 3.350 in 2017 (26). Bear in mind, these are people seeking asylum, not necessarily being granted it.
In fact, Europe as a whole has seen a substantial drop in asylum seekers and refugees, about 50% since 2015, and this number is likely to keep decreasing (27):
This could not have been predicted in 2015, therefor it is fair to assume that Pew Research might have overstated the projected immigrant influx.
In summary:
European Union is over 90% ethnic Europeans. EU is about 4,9% muslim. Europe has been projected by some estimates to become 11,2% muslim in 2050, however this data may be overstated and going with current trends the number may be lower. Ultimately, no one can predict all these variables, but declining fertility rates amongst muslims, a sharp decline in asylum seekers and tighter immigration policy will probably keep the number in the low-mid end estimates.
EDIT:
Corrections on Sweden ethnicity numbers and France muslim numbers after input from @Son of Jamin and @Kindacrazy
Sources:
1: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projection-table/2010/percent/all/
2: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp8iter/p8iter/p8e/
3: http://www.irr.org.uk/research/statistics/ethnicity-and-religion/
4: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/ethnicity-in-the-uk
5: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...knyhet/befolkningsstatistik-1a-halvaret-2018/
6: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...kningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/
7: https://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/Publikationer/VisPub?cid=20705
8: https://www.religion.dk/religionsanalysen/hvor-mange-indvandrer-lever-i-danmark
9: https://www.rights.no/2017/03/nye-ssb-tall-om-norges-befolkning/
9-2: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...p/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics
10: https://www.rights.no/2017/11/ssb-med-anslag-pa-antallet-muslimer-i-norge/
11: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikat...grund2010220177004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
12: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/series/103088458
12(2): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/fr.html
13: https://www.indexmundi.com/belgium/demographics_profile.html
14: https://www.britannica.com/place/Belgium/Ethnic-groups-and-languages
15: https://www.thelocal.se/20161214/swedes-wildly-overestimate-muslim-population-survey
16: https://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/statistik#2-religion-i-danmark
17: https://fowid.de/meldung/religionszugehoerigkeiten-deutschland-2017
18: https://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2006/71371.htm
19: https://books.google.dk/books?id=NW7DBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA233&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
20: https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts
21: http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
22: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
23: https://www.researchgate.net/public...y_datasheet_2015_httpwwwfertilitydatasheetorg
24: https://fowid.de/meldung/mythos-hoher-muslimischer-geburtenraten
25: https://www.dw.com/en/refugee-numbers-in-germany-dropped-dramatically-in-2017/a-42162223
26: https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/63732
27: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...ics#Number_of_asylum_applicants:_drop_in_2017
2: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp8iter/p8iter/p8e/
3: http://www.irr.org.uk/research/statistics/ethnicity-and-religion/
4: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/ethnicity-in-the-uk
5: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...knyhet/befolkningsstatistik-1a-halvaret-2018/
6: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...kningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/
7: https://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/Publikationer/VisPub?cid=20705
8: https://www.religion.dk/religionsanalysen/hvor-mange-indvandrer-lever-i-danmark
9: https://www.rights.no/2017/03/nye-ssb-tall-om-norges-befolkning/
9-2: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...p/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics
10: https://www.rights.no/2017/11/ssb-med-anslag-pa-antallet-muslimer-i-norge/
11: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikat...grund2010220177004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
12: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/series/103088458
12(2): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/fr.html
13: https://www.indexmundi.com/belgium/demographics_profile.html
14: https://www.britannica.com/place/Belgium/Ethnic-groups-and-languages
15: https://www.thelocal.se/20161214/swedes-wildly-overestimate-muslim-population-survey
16: https://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/statistik#2-religion-i-danmark
17: https://fowid.de/meldung/religionszugehoerigkeiten-deutschland-2017
18: https://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2006/71371.htm
19: https://books.google.dk/books?id=NW7DBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA233&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
20: https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts
21: http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
22: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
23: https://www.researchgate.net/public...y_datasheet_2015_httpwwwfertilitydatasheetorg
24: https://fowid.de/meldung/mythos-hoher-muslimischer-geburtenraten
25: https://www.dw.com/en/refugee-numbers-in-germany-dropped-dramatically-in-2017/a-42162223
26: https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/63732
27: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...ics#Number_of_asylum_applicants:_drop_in_2017
Last edited:
