UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[t6p]

Anyone looking to play Condit might want to consider his NSC line at +170. His record in fights that go the distance is terrible, while Chiesa hasn’t lost a decision. Given the style matchup it’s also pretty likely that Condit will have spent significant time on bottom or with Chiesa on his back if this does make it the full 15 mins.

 

[Jordan3399]

Am I right in thinking theres a method that allows you to effectively do a NSC bet without it actually being an option with a bookie? Never done one as it's not an option on UK sites.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Am I right in thinking theres a method that allows you to effectively do a NSC bet without it actually being an option with a bookie? Never done one as it's not an option on UK sites.

I might be wrong but I believe @pytycrys was good at doing this.

 

[pytycrys]

Play goes to distance and put the potential profits on the X fighter ITD.

 

[piglord]

Am I right in thinking theres a method that allows you to effectively do a NSC bet without it actually being an option with a bookie? Never done one as it's not an option on UK sites.

you'll be able to get nsc lines at ohmbet in the uk in a few weeks man

 

[And]

Am I right in thinking theres a method that allows you to effectively do a NSC bet without it actually being an option with a bookie? Never done one as it's not an option on UK sites.

Here's an old example I wrote for David Branch - Thiago Santos:

An example using Branch - Santos on 5D:

1 unit on fight goes the distance +120, to win 1.2 units.

Bet the potential profit, 1.2 units, on Branch inside the distance +436, to win 5.232 units (total payout 6.432 units)

Together it adds up to risking 2.2 units for a total payout of 6.432 units (profit 4.232 units) which equals the odds +192.

This is by the way worse than his actual NSC-line which is +250, but just an example how to do it.

 

[Jordan3399]

Thanks everyone! Looks like I can get Condit NSC for +112 then, will be glad to get the lines on Ohmbet if thats opening soon.

 

[piglord]

speaking of ohmbet i have a few special props this week:

who completes more takedowns?

jones -357
gustafsson +275

who lands more significant strikes?

jones -250
gustafsson +180

 

[matthew55]

just had a vision of jon jones finishing gus against the fence and then on the ground,,tbh i just bout always had jones winning even thought i love to take the underdog, just think jones is a different animal who has motivation out the wazzooo

 

[ill800]

Saw some talk on yan/silva

Silva is a good gatekeeper.

He’s pretty well rounded. Throws power hooks quite a bit and mixes in leg kicks.

Had a very difficult time with fonts boxing and his jab

Yan should be able to replicate fonts fight with Andrade. Tough guy with good boxing and power for his weight class

 

[PuertoRican]

The main thing that I remember was that Mendes didn't seem to give a shit at all that he lost. He looked happy as hell with losing.

"Chad Mendes: Dude, Conor, thank you for my biggest MMA payday!"
"Conor McGregor: No problem, bud! Now you can spend more time hunting like you have always wanted to do."

 

[Kyle Stephens]

In the clip below you'll see Valentina and Cris do drills side by side. I noticed how stiff and slow is Cris compared to Valentina. It's not a surprise, Valentina does this shit since she was a small child and she is significantly smaller than Cris. But this could play a big role in Cris' fight v Amanda. I remember the big speed disadvantage Amanda had in her fight v Valentina. She won't have any disadvantage in speed now, not only that - she will be the faster girl.

 

[matthew55]

In the clip below you'll see Valentina and Cris do drills side by side. I noticed how stiff and slow is Cris compared to Valentina. It's not a surprise, Valentina does this shit since she was a small child and she is significantly smaller than Cris. But this could play a big role in Cris' fight v Amanda. I remember the big speed disadvantage Amanda had in her fight v Valentina. She won't have any disadvantage in speed now, not only that - she will be the faster girl.

Have you seen cyborg sparring with claressa shields? Ppl should watch that

 

[Jordan3399]

In the clip below you'll see Valentina and Cris do drills side by side. I noticed how stiff and slow is Cris compared to Valentina. It's not a surprise, Valentina does this shit since she was a small child and she is significantly smaller than Cris. But this could play a big role in Cris' fight v Amanda. I remember the big speed disadvantage Amanda had in her fight v Valentina. She won't have any disadvantage in speed now, not only that - she will be the faster girl.

It wasn't Shevchenko's speed it was her technique to make it work. The way she was slipping to the inside, countering then getting out perfectly. Nunes might be the faster fighter but she has none of that technique like Shevchenko. Not to mention that speed is gonna be outweighed by the fact she's also the smaller, weaker, less powerful fighter who further will likely have her speed edge mitigated by Cyborg just blasting counter shots up the middle like she did to outbox Holly.

Having a speed advantage is only good when you have a significant technique advantage over your opponent to utilise it. It also requires great cardio as you're often fighting to a decision being active the whole time to outwork the bigger fighter plus in any grappling exchanges no matter how brief you are gonna be using way more muscle trying to handle a bigger opponent which burns you out fast. Nunes is pretty much screwed on that one.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

Cyborg smashes Nunes and (hopefully) finally gets some respect.

I also really like Latifi in this spot.

By the way the legend goes if you fade Arlovski enough times you'll be rich.

No breakdowns from me dudes. I just think what I think and bet what I bet. Been working so far.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

You guys talking about betting arlovski as the dog lol that ninja can fall over dead at any given sec.... kelleher and siyar both dogs in the first 2 fights of night-don’t see them both losing. Also uriah hall is the 3rd fight of the night and the odds is even. I’m. Bettin bj penn no matter what and especially at those odds I’m surprised the odds ain’t more closer to even as this will be a ground game fight in which bj will thrive and win. Cat due for a win I like her as a slight fav. Of course jones prolly Chiesa.

On a card like this i ain’t touching arlovski lol

..I do like arlovski tho and I hope he wins.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

Bj penn is a bigger underdog in this fight against Ryan Hall than he was against Yair smdh..
It’s clearly a offline

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Have you seen cyborg sparring with claressa shields? Ppl should watch that

Have you ever seen Shields boxing? You should watch that.
Edit: some quotes from enterely different thread where @executionermma said some important things about women's boxing.

Women boxing is pretty much primitive in comparison to men, the skill gap between them is much bigger than the skill gap between WMMA and MMA. Women boxing overall speaking sucks really bad. Cyborg probably could beat many girls at boxing, i know she came from MT but she won rounds against Jorina who is maybe the best female kickboxer/MT fighter ever.

...ask any boxing hardcore guy, women boxing is dogshit, that's why you see so many girls being pro boxer, then they come to MMA and they are outclassed and outlanded by stand up MMA fighters, it's not that boxing is not effective as a main discipline to MMA, it's that the level of women boxing is reaaally low, there are some legit fighters like Cecilia Braekhus, Christina Hammer etc but it's pretty much terrible, plenty of women 38+ years old as contenders, just like HW division but even worse. They usually have no defense whatsoever..

 

[Dianabol]

Michael Chiesa = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Nathaniel Wood = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Siyar Bahadurzarda = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Amanda Nunes = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Bevon Lewos = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!

 

[Gugabe]

Michael Chiesa = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Nathaniel Wood = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Siyar Bahadurzarda = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Amanda Nunes = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!
Bevon Lewos = ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!!

Don't trust Wood's defense, though I do feel like it's going to be a quick R1 stoppage in that fight. Just not sure who.