UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

[mkess101]

One more thing when it comes to Dern/Jandiroba:

Dern's striking technique is fairly sloppy and telegraphed. She doesn't hide her punches well and she will throw her overhand so wildly that it leaves her off balance a bit. A truly crisp counter striker (of which there are very few in WMMA) would light her up standing due to that alone. That is FAR from Jandiroba though. What Dern does do is turn over on her punches and throws them much harder than most WMMA fighters. When she lands, there's a thud you don't hear all that often in WMMA. Even shots that she throws that are partially blocked have an effect. And part of the reason she's able to be kinda wild like that is that she is 100% fine with someone trying to duck under and take her down. For the most part, everyone wants to avoid her ground game like the plague though. But the freedom it gives her to throw big power shots and be off balance is important. It makes her a real threat standing, even with sub par technique. Jandiroba is likely among the few who might attempt to go to the mat with Dern. She's still at a disadvantage there imo, but she's better than most so we'll see. But I'm not discounting at all the chance that Dern hurts her standing.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Anyone favoring Holland ITD and Hedge with Jacare by Decision?

 

[Broe.]

Anyone favoring Holland ITD and Hedge with Jacare by Decision?

lol i would rather play Souza sub and hedge with Holland decision. But this fight is weird, Souza hasn't really gone for takedowns in his last 6 fights and Holland seems to fight a lot smarter now in recent fights so anything can happen this fight really.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

Styles make fights, and I think Tony is the 1 guy at the top of the division who is tailor-made to break down Chucky Olives. I rate Oliveira very highly and I think he might have Tony in trouble early in the fight (like most guys do to Tony lol) but in the end I think Tony gets the job done.

Tony + Gane is an appealing parlay for me.

Jacare to win by Sub is tempting. I still don't know what to make of Kevin Holland. Until I see him prove his worth I'll consider him more flash than substance.

If all the above goes well I think I have to take a stab on Moreno. Figueredo is very impressive. However, I think Moreno has the constitution to take him into deep waters. At the current price it might be worth a gamble.

All in all this is a very fun card on paper. Good luck to everyone!

 

[TrueAscension]

Styles make fights, and I think Tony is the 1 guy at the top of the division who is tailor-made to break down Chucky Olives. I rate Oliveira very highly and I think he might have Tony in trouble early in the fight (like most guys do to Tony lol) but in the end I think Tony gets the job done.

Tony + Gane is an appealing parlay for me.

Jacare to win by Sub is tempting. I still don't know what to make of Kevin Holland. Until I see him prove his worth I'll consider him more flash than substance.

If all the above goes well I think I have to take a stab on Moreno. Figueredo is very impressive. However, I think Moreno has the constitution to take him into deep waters. At the current price it might be worth a gamble.

All in all this is a very fun card on paper. Good luck to everyone!

Why parlay a -400 favorite to your Tony bet when you can simply add 25 pct to your Tony bet and only worry about one fight?

 

[HighStakesMMA]

Why parlay a -400 favorite to your Tony bet when you can simply add 25 pct to your Tony bet and only worry about one fight?

Partly less total amount wagered risk....partly cuz I'm a degenerate and I want to get involved on Gane and use him as a parlay piece including with some NFL bets Sunday.

 

[TrueAscension]

Partly less total amount wagered risk....partly cuz I'm a degenerate and I want to get involved on Gane and use him as a parlay piece including with some NFL bets Sunday.

Well I can't argue with any of that lol
What are your NFL leans?

 

[mkess101]

I really don't see how anyone could trust Jacare at all at this point. 41 years old, and his body transformation is noticeable. (Not necessarily saying it's due to USADA but...it's there and it's obvious). A ton of wear and tear over the years between his grappling career and MMA career. He's shopworn imo. He was a bjj player that became a good MMA wrestler in large part due to his athleticism. But he seems much slower and weaker. He's coming off a 1 year layoff (which in his case maybe isn't the worst thing admittedly, it could have given his body some time to rejuvinate, but even that seems a bit of a stretch). We know Jan has big power, but Jacare seemed utterly petrified to trade with him.

I think Holland is a good but not great fighter. Prime Jacare would sub him, likely round 1. But now...Holland will be considerably faster, and he hits hard enough to hurt Jacare for sure. We haven't seen Jacare really try to initiate much grappling lately (he did a bit vs Joker, and then was thoroughly outgrappled which in itself was a shock). Even if he does, the explosiveness he had seems gone so I don't know if he's even capable of getting Holland down at all.

I have to lean Holland here, and the $ coming in on Jacare seems weird to me. Could be people betting a name maybe? IDK, but I'd be on Holland and Holland itd.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

Well I can't argue with any of that lol
What are your NFL leans?

Due to the volatility of NFL betting I have been heavily leaning on teasers and ML's instead of straight spreads. Lower payouts but it's been keeping me +money on the season. It's unconventional but overall it works. Doing 2-leg teasers or round robin teasers has been my approach.

So right now I'm liking Packers -1, Tampa -1, Tennessee -1, Raiders +8.5, Steelers +8.5 and potentially Bears +7.5/8.5. I can parlay Gane with each of these teased lines.

If I had to take straight lines I'd lean Raiders +3, Steelers +2.5....and if you're feeling frisky the Dolphins +7 looks a bit high to me but I'll see how my Saturday goes before I stand in front of the Mahomes train. I think KC is in neutral gear until the playoffs so I don't see them giving a herculean effort against Miami who definitely need to come out with all they got.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

I really don't see how anyone could trust Jacare at all at this point. 41 years old, and his body transformation is noticeable. (Not necessarily saying it's due to USADA but...it's there and it's obvious). A ton of wear and tear over the years between his grappling career and MMA career. He's shopworn imo. He was a bjj player that became a good MMA wrestler in large part due to his athleticism. But he seems much slower and weaker. He's coming off a 1 year layoff (which in his case maybe isn't the worst thing admittedly, it could have given his body some time to rejuvinate, but even that seems a bit of a stretch). We know Jan has big power, but Jacare seemed utterly petrified to trade with him.

I think Holland is a good but not great fighter. Prime Jacare would sub him, likely round 1. But now...Holland will be considerably faster, and he hits hard enough to hurt Jacare for sure. We haven't seen Jacare really try to initiate much grappling lately (he did a bit vs Joker, and then was thoroughly outgrappled which in itself was a shock). Even if he does, the explosiveness he had seems gone so I don't know if he's even capable of getting Holland down at all.

I have to lean Holland here, and the $ coming in on Jacare seems weird to me. Could be people betting a name maybe? IDK, but I'd be on Holland and Holland itd.

Very valid points. I guess the real question is how good Holland is. Jacare fights top-tier guys; I'm not sure Holland has. And Holland is a bit sloppy for my liking. I think this is one of those fights where whatever happens you'll be like "oh yeah I should have seen that coming". If Holland wins it's like yeah he's ascending and Jacare is shopworn. If Jacare wins it's like "yeah Holland is all hype and Jacare is a gatekeeper who can get rid of guys like that".

 

[Monster Meat]

Partly less total amount wagered risk....partly cuz I'm a degenerate and I want to get involved on Gane and use him as a parlay piece including with some NFL bets Sunday.

Instead of gane at -400 why not take a shot with gane by tko or dec parlay w tony at +158

 

[Monster Meat]

Due to the volatility of NFL betting I have been heavily leaning on teasers and ML's instead of straight spreads. Lower payouts but it's been keeping me +money on the season. It's unconventional but overall it works. Doing 2-leg teasers or round robin teasers has been my approach.

So right now I'm liking Packers -1, Tampa -1, Tennessee -1, Raiders +8.5, Steelers +8.5 and potentially Bears +7.5/8.5. I can parlay Gane with each of these teased lines.

If I had to take straight lines I'd lean Raiders +3, Steelers +2.5....and if you're feeling frisky the Dolphins +7 looks a bit high to me but I'll see how my Saturday goes before I stand in front of the Mahomes train. I think KC is in neutral gear until the playoffs so I don't see them giving a herculean effort against Miami who definitely need to come out with all they got.

browns +1.5 is a nice one this week.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

Instead of gane at -400 why not take a shot with gane by tko or dec parlay w tony at +158

I've been running bad trying to pick out props recently so I'm just looking for easier/simpler approaches til I get back on track. Wouldn't surprise me if Gane just picked JDS apart for a 30-27 decision. I want to get a piece of Gane in some way but will be annoyed if he gets the decision.

 

[mkess101]

Very valid points. I guess the real question is how good Holland is. Jacare fights top-tier guys; I'm not sure Holland has. And Holland is a bit sloppy for my liking. I think this is one of those fights where whatever happens you'll be like "oh yeah I should have seen that coming". If Holland wins it's like yeah he's ascending and Jacare is shopworn. If Jacare wins it's like "yeah Holland is all hype and Jacare is a gatekeeper who can get rid of guys like that".

I think that would have been my exact take 2 fights ago for Jacare honestly. Literally word for word. Now...I think you're spot on with Holland but that Jacare truly is just way past it.

 

[Monster Meat]

I've been running bad trying to pick out props recently so I'm just looking for easier/simpler approaches til I get back on track. Wouldn't surprise me if Gane just picked JDS apart for a 30-27 decision. I want to get a piece of Gane in some way but will be annoyed if he gets the decision.

yea I’m covering the decision as well. The bet is gane by tko/ko or by dec parlayed with tony. So only loses if obv he loses or wins by sub. Going from -400 to -162 on this one I think makes sense.

 

[beroisimo**]

As expected, Holland is getting slept on, ONCE again!

Jacare is one of my fav fighters, but even I can admit that the guy was never the most technical of strikers, and has looked incredibly sluggish on the feet of late.

Holland lights him up imo.

 

[benebox]

I think Souza knows Holland doesn't have the TDD compared to recent opponents and is going to focus on his grappling and make this look easy. I got him at +140 but I would still bet him at his current price.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I really don't see how anyone could trust Jacare at all at this point. 41 years old, and his body transformation is noticeable. (Not necessarily saying it's due to USADA but...it's there and it's obvious). A ton of wear and tear over the years between his grappling career and MMA career. He's shopworn imo. He was a bjj player that became a good MMA wrestler in large part due to his athleticism. But he seems much slower and weaker. He's coming off a 1 year layoff (which in his case maybe isn't the worst thing admittedly, it could have given his body some time to rejuvinate, but even that seems a bit of a stretch). We know Jan has big power, but Jacare seemed utterly petrified to trade with him.

I think Holland is a good but not great fighter. Prime Jacare would sub him, likely round 1. But now...Holland will be considerably faster, and he hits hard enough to hurt Jacare for sure. We haven't seen Jacare really try to initiate much grappling lately (he did a bit vs Joker, and then was thoroughly outgrappled which in itself was a shock). Even if he does, the explosiveness he had seems gone so I don't know if he's even capable of getting Holland down at all.

I have to lean Holland here, and the $ coming in on Jacare seems weird to me. Could be people betting a name maybe? IDK, but I'd be on Holland and Holland itd.

I think it's more of the fact that Holland was completely dominated on the ground less than a year ago by Brendan Allen. Even Stewart had him full mounted and was doing a lot of damage before the fight ended.

His ground game is subpar at best, and he isn't really a 1 punch KO kind of guy.

Yes, he KO'd Buckley in the third, but that was after an accumulation of strikes throughout the fight.

Jacare just went 5 rounds with the LHW champ in his last fight. He's obviously at the tail end of his career, but even so, Holland is getting too much respect because of all the fights he's had this year.

 

[avid1]

I'm putting some money on Cyril Gane submission @ 12.

 

[mkess101]

I think Souza knows Holland doesn't have the TDD compared to recent opponents and is going to focus on his grappling and make this look easy. I got him at +140 but I would still bet him at his current price.

Interesting. Really wide variety of takes on this fight. I'm on the opposite side of you, I think Jacare has really aged over the last few fights.

That said, one of the most difficult things about capping is trying to parce out how much a guy has aged and how bad he looks independent of his opponent vs does he actually not look that terrible and we'll see that with a step down in competition.

I'm of the mind that Jacare is just old and mostly broken relative to the guys he will be in there with (Holland included). But...yeah there's a chance that he doesn't need his explosiveness on TD's to get Holland down and from there his grappling skills take over. Will be interesting to see which it is.