UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

[LEMONZEST]

The funniest part of that was that so often announcers will just let stuff that their colleagues say slide. But Rogan could just not sit there and allow that to go unchecked. Especially because he just worships guys like Marcelhino.

Goldy: "Travis Lutter is the Michael Jordan of bjj..."
Rogan (after a brief pause where he considers whether to comment): "No, he's not"
Goldy: "He isn't?"
Rogan: "No."

And then they move on LMAO. One of the best exchanges ever for on air commentary.

Goldie is my fave. Some classics like this so funny. Honestly, I will take charisma any day over dry announcers. Cruz is technically good but he is kind of a downer. I loved the energy Rogan/Goldie brought.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Yeah I don't think Holland's ground game looks good, but Brendan Allen isn't a slouch grappler either, he's damn good. Not Jacare level obviously, but what Allen does have at this point that I don't think Jacare does is the ability to set up a shot and get an athletic guy to the mat.

Jacare's TD attempts now look so slow and telegraphed (when he even tries them). And it's a huge problem for him because his wrestling at best was only ever just "okay" technically. He realized he could use his crazy athleticism to get in on guys hips and get them down, but once his explosiveness fell off that seemed to go away. IF Jacare gets Holland to the mat, I agree that Holland is in trouble. There's a very wide skill gap there. I just have very little confidence that Jacare can do it.

Jacare did go 5 with Jan yeah. He had an okay rd 1, but did pretty much nothing after that. That was a weird fight but Jacare looked scared of Jan, I mean Jacare landed what, maybe 5 strikes per round or so? If that?

Edit: Just checked and Jacare landed 20 sig strikes TOTAL in that fight. Over 5 rounds...

I could be overstating his decline, I fully realize that. But to me he hasn't looked like anything close to what he used to be.

I am in the camp of viewing Jacare as over the hill. Holland is young and hungry and wins via tenacity. Rare moments when betting a 41 year old to beat a 28 year old is the right move.

Just looking at the trajectory of their careers right now I find it totally impossible to bet Jacare here.

 

[thehighking]

Ha not trying to rain on your parade, but you also have the chance of her securing mount and Jandiroba being unwilling to give up her neck and Dern just pounding on her until the ref stops it. Which is a TKO.

I'm gonna do one more parlay just in case lol. Mckenzie by KO would be great odds to stack on with a few favorites.

 

[Kazda1]

Did anyone happen to catch the cringeworthy ufc on the line episode for this card with Nick and Gianni arguing over placing a bet in mma using statistics vs actual tape footage?

 

[svmr_db]

Did anyone happen to catch the cringeworthy ufc on the line episode for this card with Nick and Gianni arguing over placing a bet in mma using statistics vs actual tape footage?

Yeah I tuned in for that, you can tell Gianni has no clue about the sport lol. At least he's winning more than he's losing though I suppose.

 

[Kazda1]

Yeah I tuned in for that, you can tell Gianni has no clue about the sport lol. At least he's winning more than he's losing though I suppose.

It's crazy to think as a professor gambler Gianni believes stats are almost absolute in a sport where so much randomness determines an actual win. It's not baseball for crying out loud. I actually like him for his NFL analysis but as an mma bettor, I've got some questions regarding his thought process

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Jacare glued Jan to the cage for long periods of times in their 5 round fight and Holland is a child compared to Jan. I don't see why Jacare couldn't do the same thing to a boring decision or get a takedown going from that position.

 

[mkess101]

Jacare glued Jan to the cage for long periods of times in their 5 round fight and Holland is a child compared to Jan. I don't see why Jacare couldn't do the same thing to a boring decision or get a takedown going from that position.

He can if Holland is lazy and doesn't stick and move. Which...admittedly is a possibility. Jan is a better fighter by a lot obviously, but he's a plodder too for the most part. He likes to plant his feet and bang. Holland definitely needs to fight smart and use his speed, I guess we'll see if he does or if he allows Jacare to get to spots where he can have success.

 

[SolarSeiko]

lol i would rather play Souza sub and hedge with Holland decision. But this fight is weird, Souza hasn't really gone for takedowns in his last 6 fights and Holland seems to fight a lot smarter now in recent fights so anything can happen this fight really.

they were both over +300 for me. I figure Holland wants to jumpstart his title contention by destroying Souza and I think Souza is just too over the hill to submit Holland in terms of cardio and strength at this stage in his career. So if Souza were to win, I figure it'd be via a decision. at 185, Souza now has to cut weight again vs just coming in fully hydrated when he fought Jan.

I believe it was Holland ITD +300, Jacare DEC +333

 

[carolinagrapple]

Post weigh in, i am throwing a few more bucks on Barrett Ko at +1000. Looked in solid shape and has been saying his game plan is to head hunt. JDS looked better then I expected so liking the over...

 

[2020Tracked]

where you seeing that? i'm only seeing over 2.5 for -300

edit: taking a stab at hughes decision +650

Some UK books opened the over 1.5 at -110, a gift!

 

[matthew55]

Some UK books opened the over 1.5 at -110, a gift!

this screams trap to me..I do think it's a good line but I wouldn't be shocked to see Tecia get a finish, she looked really good her last fight and it seemed like she was actively trying to finish the fight..her 2nd fight in a row fighting a woman on a totally different level imo

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Unpopular opinion of the week but i am on Virna Jandiroba hoping her underdog bet pays off with Gane,Deiveson Figueiredo ITD.
I am staying away on betting the first fight of the night.

Jandiroba by Dec
Gane ITD
Deiveson Figueiredo ITD

 

[theTKDguy]

old men JDS and Jacare looked very good.....

 

[mkess101]

old men JDS and Jacare looked very good.....

Yeah...agree. Their weigh in pics actually look solid. Esp Jacare compared to his last fight at 185. He's 41...no accusation at all but maybe he's decided to say the hell with it and add in some Tea.

 

[mkess101]

Unpopular opinion of the week but i am on Virna Jandiroba hoping her underdog bet pays off with Gane,Deiveson Figueiredo ITD.
I am staying away on betting the first fight of the night.

Jandiroba by Dec
Gane ITD
Deiveson Figueiredo ITD

If you're betting Virna, dec is the way to go. Looks like a good enough delta too, her ML around +160 and her dec line around +240. Her striking sucks and she doesn't hit hard. And Dern has shown she's not just some bjj player who will crumble when hit. She can take a punch (which again probably doesn't matter too much here). And Virna subbing Dern is EXTREMELY unlikely barring Dern just gassing horribly. If Virna wins, it's very likely her figuring out a way to keep top position long enough to steal rounds imo. Can't see her finishing barring some truly freak thing happening.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Why parlay a -400 favorite to your Tony bet when you can simply add 25 pct to your Tony bet and only worry about one fight?

Can you explain this math to me? When I use a sports betting calculator, it doesn't add up so I must be missing something. EDIT: Not trying to be disrespectful, I tailed a few of your bets before I joined the forum, but I'm curious as to how you arrived at 25%.

At 5Dimes, Ferguson is -165 so add Gane@-400. A two team parlay pays $100.76 in profit. Playing $100@-165 = $60.61 in profit so adding 25% gives $125@-165 = $75.76 in profit. You'd have to play $166@-165 to get $100.61 in profit which is 66% added to your bet.

I like Ferguson and Gane O1.5. This may be the stupidest thing I've said about a 265 fight, but I think Gane/Dos Santos FGTD has/had value. The line seems really wide and I don't know if JDS' chin is as bad as people say it is, but we'll find out tomorrow. EDIT: JDS ML also has value and he may be able to TKO Gane, but they both move so well that I doubt it.

Dern hedged with Jandiroba DEC seems like a decent play.

Jacare at + money looked solid and now you can get Holland at + money for a no risk play. Same thing happened with Fiziev/Moicano. I'm leaning Jacare and Fiziev.

The Moreno/Fig line seems wide. Fig cuts a lot of weight and having to redo it 3 weeks later should work against him. I lean Fig by TKO.

Some good betting breakdowns:

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Jandiroba KO is +700, and Jacare KO is +750?

What in the actual fuck.

Jacare has power standing, and could easily decide to pound him out for a stoppage on the ground.

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

Jandiroba KO is +700, and Jacare KO is +750?

What in the actual fuck.

Jacare has power standing, and could easily decide to pound him out for a stoppage on the ground.

Huh? In the books I use Jandiroba KO varies between +1800 and +2200.

I have a small bet on Jacare ITD +230, though mainly because the highest I ever saw for his sub line was +200 lol.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Huh? In the books I use Jandiroba KO varies between +1800 and +2200.

I have a small bet on Jacare ITD +230, though mainly because the highest I ever saw for his sub line was +200 lol.

Weird, 2 of the books I use have her KO line @ +700, +720 at the highest.

Irregardless, +750 on Jacare KO is rather enticing.