Why John Danaher is wrong about randomness in striking and "punchers chance" compared to grappling

[Enclave]

Same for me... I have very good strikes, and speed but I don't believe that I can land on Michael Jai White.. Ever.. And he's not an elite striker. He's just so much more experienced.

I can slam sn experienced Wrestler or judoka though who is a regular Joe. It's not easy but I can do it.

People don't understand these things. It just looks like swing and hit with striking... It's not.

 

[Enclave]

Put it in another way, I can "brute force" (plus some talent and strength) a grappler and toss him.

I can't brute force a hugely experienced striker. He spots everything a mile away.

 

[maximus__]

It's asinine to suggest it never happens in grappling. There are countless examples of guys falling into chokes during bad takedowns - ones the takedown defender wasn't even looking for.

Falling into bad chokes? Those chokes have been drilled for years. The very act of catching the choke is different to closing your eyes and swinging wildly. The video I showed above could be found in bum fights multiple times. Francis misses with over 50% of the punches. How can you compare that to catching a guillotine in response to someone shooting a takedown poorly? To hit that guillotine you have done 5-10 things correctly, winging punches you are just hoping something hits and hits hard enough to drop someone.

 

[BJJ Coffee Drinker]

Put it in another way, I can "brute force" (plus some talent and strength) a grappler and toss him.

I can't brute force a hugely experienced striker. He spots everything a mile away.

How heavy are you? Why do you assume you can brute force the grappler, you are assuming you are stronger than them. What if strength and weight were equal? or you are the smaller one?

 

[mattemate]

How heavy are you? Why do you assume you can brute force the grappler, you are assuming you are stronger than them. What if strength and weight were equal? or you are the smaller one?

His first "paragraph," if you want to call it that, made zero sense.

"Same for me... I have very good strikes, and speed but I don't believe that I can land on Michael Jai White.. Ever.. And he's not an elite striker. He's just so much more experience."

What the hell is going on there? So it sounds like he thinks of himself as an elite striker, but can't land on MJW, who is not an elite striker, but has more experience? WTF is this nonsense?

 

[drblackula]

Puncher's chance in striking is the equivalent of large athletic guy takes a BJJ class. Both have an opportunity of pulling something out of their ass against the same level of competition.

I'm just gonna go ahead and say the guy that's spent his entire life training grappling of course is going to think it's the most complex angelic sport possible with nothing easy and everything earned, blah blah blah.

 

[ChickenBrother]

His first "paragraph," if you want to call it that, made zero sense.

"Same for me... I have very good strikes, and speed but I don't believe that I can land on Michael Jai White.. Ever.. And he's not an elite striker. He's just so much more experience."

What the hell is going on there? So it sounds like he thinks of himself as an elite striker, but can't land on MJW, who is not an elite striker, but has more experience? WTF is this nonsense?

He's a troll, brah. This thread has spurred some interesting discussion but TS is full of shit.

 

[Enclave]

His first "paragraph," if you want to call it that, made zero sense.

"Same for me... I have very good strikes, and speed but I don't believe that I can land on Michael Jai White.. Ever.. And he's not an elite striker. He's just so much more experience."

What the hell is going on there? So it sounds like he thinks of himself as an elite striker, but can't land on MJW, who is not an elite striker, but has more experience? WTF is this nonsense?

You are conflating technique with ability to fight. I have some techniques at master level, but I don't have the footwork and experience to apply them, and I never will to someone who started training Karate since he was 10. And when it's his turn, I never defended against someone at that level so I'm a fish out of water defensively.

But let's say my fast twitch can allow me to KO MJW in one go... There is nothing random about that then. I fully earned it. I moved without him parrying it well enough.

 

[BJJ Coffee Drinker]

Puncher's chance in striking is the equivalent of large athletic guy takes a BJJ class. Both have an opportunity of pulling something out of their ass against the same level of competition.

note the word "large." usually these stories about athletic guys jumping into bjj class and manhandling some if the lower belt students involve the "athletic" guy having a 40+ pounds weight advantage.

You are conflating technique with ability to fight. I have some techniques at master level, but I don't have the footwork and experience to apply them, and I never will to someone who started training Karate since he was 10. And when it's his turn, I never defended against someone at that level so I'm a fish out of water defensively.

But let's say my fast twitch can allow me to KO MJW in one go... There is nothing random about that then. I fully earned it. I moved without him parrying it well enough.

so if you were 170lbs, you could brute force escape some of Demian Maia or Gilbert Burns techniques? If you were 185, you could power out of one of Palhares's attacks or Jacare's top game? Uh huh, good luck if you aren't 70+ lbs heavier

 

[Enclave]

so if you were 170lbs, you could brute force escape some of Demian Maia or Gilbert Burns techniques? If you were 185, you could power out of one of Palhares's attacks or Jacare's top game? Uh huh, good luck if you aren't 70+ lbs heavier

I'm obviously fucked once they hit their groove and get into actual rolling, but it's not out of the question that I can stuff a takedown, even do a random o goshi that they don't expect that I can pull off, and slam them. Stuff like that.

Suppose instead that I have to strike Canelo. There's very little chance for me to hit him. And I am not a bad puncher. I can put him out if I land,, I just don't think I will.

 

[mattemate]

You are conflating technique with ability to fight. I have some techniques at master level, but I don't have the footwork and experience to apply them, and I never will to someone who started training Karate since he was 10.

Footwork IS technique.
I'm still not following your logic.

 

[mattemate]

He's a troll, brah. This thread has spurred some interesting discussion but TS is full of shit.

lol thanks, I got all serious for a minute. Even though I saw his new join date, I figured he might be serious. Maybe he just be ignant

 

[Forceof1]

Even though TS in unserious... I'll weigh in.

I've trained karate / kick boxing / muay thai for 25 years... and BJJ for 12. I've fought with really good guys in both sports.

If you really want to have this debate, need to control a couple of things.

Size- both combatants are roughly the same size.
Skill- one combatant is highly skilled, the other is a complete novice. Using MMA is a bad example, because the participants are still trained in multiple disciplines.
Rules for winning- in striking the untrained person needs to land a blow or blows that knocks out his opponent, in grappling the untrained person needs to tap out the highly skilled opponent.

With this scenario, there is a very small, "so your telling me there's a chance!" level small, chance that the highly skilled striker gets caught. You can at least imagine a scenario where he could slip on the ring mat, not expect a lefty, or get caught by a random unorthodox strike. It's doubtful, but I can at least conjure a scenario.

With this scenario, I can think of no chance the highly skilled grappler loses. Even if the unskilled opponent football tackles him to the ground- it won't matter. He may grab a headlock instinctively- won't matter. There is literally nothing a similarly sized, untrained opponent is going to do to a highly skilled grappler. I'm a black belt, and there are highly skilled grapplers that I literally have nothing for. That a similarly sized untrained person could do anything to them is laughable.

The punchers chance only exists in striking. There is no such thing as a grapplers chance with similarly sized, unskilled opponents.

 

[Enclave]

Footwork IS technique.
.

No. Footwork is rythm.. You can be flat footed but a great technician and fighter.

 

[Enclave]

Even though TS in unserious... I'll weigh in.

I've trained karate / kick boxing / muay thai for 25 years... and BJJ for 12. I've fought with really good guys in both sports.

If you really want to have this debate, need to control a couple of things.

Size- both combatants are roughly the same size.
Skill- one combatant is highly skilled, the other is a complete novice. Using MMA is a bad example, because the participants are still trained in multiple disciplines.
Rules for winning- in striking the untrained person needs to land a blow or blows that knocks out his opponent, in grappling the untrained person needs to tap out the highly skilled opponent.

With this scenario, there is a very small, "so your telling me there's a chance!" level small, chance that the highly skilled striker gets caught. You can at least imagine a scenario where he could slip on the ring mat, not expect a lefty, or get caught by a random unorthodox strike. It's doubtful, but I can at least conjure a scenario.

With this scenario, I can think of no chance the highly skilled grappler loses. Even if the unskilled opponent football tackles him to the ground- it won't matter. He may grab a headlock instinctively- won't matter. There is literally nothing a similarly sized, untrained opponent is going to do to a highly skilled grappler. I'm a black belt, and there are highly skilled grapplers that I literally have nothing for. That a similarly sized untrained person could do anything to them is laughable.

Chael Sonnen made the point that some people just don't know how to move their hips and coordinate themselves and that wrestling is largely innate. And this is why some BJJ guys never get good at wrestling. They just aren't athletic enough.

And those particular BJJ guys - high level or recreational, are not going to outwrestle a super talented cross fit guy who just never cared to join a wrestling club.

 

[mattemate]

No. Footwork is rythm.. You can be flat footed but a great technician and fighter.

Chael Sonnen made the point that some people just don't know how to move their hips and coordinate themselves and that wrestling is largely innate. And this is why some BJJ guys never get good at wrestling. They just aren't athletic enough.

And those particular BJJ guys - high level or recreational, are not going to outwrestle a super talented cross fit guy who just never cared to join a wrestling club.

OK, at first I thought you were trolling.

Now I know you're just stupid. Everything you've said is bullshit. I'm done here.

 

[shunyata]

This is an interesting topic. Some thoughts of mine:



First, your striking scenario is "any tough guy who never trained striking" but your grappling scenario is someone who is "talented." Is there no such thing as someone "talented" at striking even if they have "never trained in striking"? Second, grappling is not more innate than striking. Literally anyone can throw a punch, but not everyone can even lock up an effective choke, to say nothing of arm locks and leg locks.

It might also be useful to consider how MMA fighters like Gary Goodridge and Rampage went into K-1 and upset top guys like Mike Bernardo and Cyril Abidi, but K-1 fighters like Cro Cop and Peter Aerts didn't come to MMA and upset Nogueira or Shungo Oyama with submissions...they got submitted.



A noob can wing punches. I've never seen a noob wing an omoplata.



We can add to this Jeremy Horn getting tapped by Ebenezer Fontes Braga, Masakatsu Funaki getting caught by Jason Delucia, and Manabu Yamada getting choked out by Bas Rutten. There are two interesting things about these examples, though. The first thing, you noted yourself:



A "superior" grappler can open themself up to an "inferior" grappler, take a risk, and pay a price for it. The second thing is that "grappler's chance" as we're discussing it here has a lot to do with surprise. Bas Rutten is a deadly MT striker. Did Manabu Yamada really expect him to lock up such a slick arm-triangle from the bottom? Same thing with Gonzaga Cro Copping Cro Cop. Gonzaga is a beastly BJJ guy. Did Cro Cop really expect him to throw such a beautifully set-up and executed high kick? The thing about a puncher's chance is more often than not surprise is not a part of the equation. Put differently, most puncher's chance examples will not be like Gonzaga Cro Copping Cro Cop. Instead, they'll be more like Goodridge and Rampage throttling Bernardo and Abidi: They knew that they'd be striking, but they still got caught because when you're swinging heavy leather, it only takes one mistake and one shot. With grappler's chance, by contrast, it's more often than not entirely about the element of surprise. You're on the ground and you're assuming that the person is thinking only defense, or just trying to get back to their feet. You're not actually expecting to go sub for sub, otherwise you would've been better prepared, you would've been on the lookout for that arm-triangle or that kimura or what have you.

Beautiful.

But to get back on thread topic, Danaher himself has also said the guilotine is the top submission a mediocre grappler can use to tap a much more talented grappler.

 

[Bullitt68]

Beautiful.

But to get back on thread topic, Danaher himself has also said the guilotine is the top submission a mediocre grappler can use to tap a much more talented grappler.

For sure. Guillotines and kimuras probably as #1 and #2. Bas Rutten basically survived on the strength of guillotines while he was learning how to grapple coming up in Pancrase. Interestingly, both guillotines and kimuras are submissions that you can get to from a lot of different positions and they're both submissions that you can secure on more aggressive opponents, including opponents who are attacking you with TDs or controlling you from the top. It's also easier for beginners to use their arms for submissions like chokes such as guillotines and RNCs and arm locks such as kimuras and keylocks rather than their legs for submissions like armbars, triangles, omoplatas, etc.

 

[mattemate]

For sure. Guillotines and kimuras probably as #1 and #2. Bas Rutten basically survived on the strength of guillotines while he was learning how to grapple coming up in Pancrase. Interestingly, both guillotines and kimuras are submissions that you can get to from a lot of different positions and they're both submissions that you can secure on more aggressive opponents, including opponents who are attacking you with TDs or controlling you from the top. It's also easier for beginners to use their arms for submissions like chokes such as guillotines and RNCs and arm locks such as kimuras and keylocks rather than their legs for submissions like armbars, triangles, omoplatas, etc.

Strongest guy I ever trained with was a big Lithuanian dude. 6'4", 250, day laborer. He's stronger than NFL guys I've trained with, it was just ridiculous. He tapped me twice with sloppy guillotines that were nowhere near being close to choking me, but it felt like he was about to just break my neck. Shit was crazy.

If I had him in side control, I had to have perfect technique and keep driving forward, because his hips were so strong he could just stand up. I finally figured out his number. I couldn't take him down, but he would always try for judo throws, and he didn't have good technique, so would expose his back. Being able to get a guy like that out of there gave me a lot of confidence in my BJJ, because he was an absolute animal.

 

[shunyata]

For sure. Guillotines and kimuras probably as #1 and #2. Bas Rutten basically survived on the strength of guillotines while he was learning how to grapple coming up in Pancrase. Interestingly, both guillotines and kimuras are submissions that you can get to from a lot of different positions and they're both submissions that you can secure on more aggressive opponents, including opponents who are attacking you with TDs or controlling you from the top. It's also easier for beginners to use their arms for submissions like chokes such as guillotines and RNCs and arm locks such as kimuras and keylocks rather than their legs for submissions like armbars, triangles, omoplatas, etc.

They flow off each other nicely too.

Both in take down defense and in the full guard > hip bump > kimura > guilotine loop.