2017 Recap & Analytics

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 30, 2017.

  1. rille31

    rille31 Brown Belt

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    Great year for me, was able to by a nice car and remodel my kitchen with betting money, sadly things will propably get harder 2018 as these euro bookies keep limiting me giving me less options to work with
     
  2. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    i completely and utterly fucked up the first 9 months of this year. beginning of september i had a profit of £7.

    i would have been up £5000 or so from solely ufc bets but i kept playing soccer, basketball, baseball and other garbage.

    i realise why this happened now.

    i had insane sleep deprivation due to sleeping next to a construction site (literally a few feet next to my head) and was sleeping during the day so i could work at night when my deranged mother was asleep.

    impulse control is so much harder when you're lacking sleep and because i was constantly looking for a distraction to my depressing existence, i would drop out of life for a few hours and watch a random ball game. obviously i was betting on the games too, like an idiot.

    almost every week i was blowing chunks of my profit on bouncing ball sports, which was a double hit on the weeks when i had a bad ufc.

    anyway, i moved house in october and i've been doing well since then with much more disciplined plays. i've only been playing the occasional nba game.

    in the past 3 months i've gone from £7 to £4245. ironically, 6 months rent for me is exactly £4200 so it helps a tonne as i make very weak income.

    my original goal for the year was £10,000 which i would have been thereabouts if i had been disciplined year round.

    it's okay to not be the genius of all sports, know your one thing and double down on it.

    some lessons i learned on the ufc:

    flaky fighters always find ways to lose. one of my deficiencies has been betting on fights based on technical skills and the way styles align while not paying enough attention to fighters being flaky fucks.

    on paper, there is no way justin scoggins should have possibly lost to sasaki, yet i parlayed him up and look what happened. bermudez was another huge loss and it was all down to a bit of positional control.

    live bet has some gift lines. i've found it's also very useful for hedging when your fighter looks nothing like expected. i was on cannonier and rountree and i got both their opponents at + money during the fight when they looked like dogshit, helped to lessen the blow.

    remember it's a long-term game. because of my style, my night is normally anchored on one or two fighters. embrace the nights that are damage control, you can't always be positive every fight night, it's the upward trajectory that matters.

    i also think acb has some massive betting potential, more than any of the other promotions. you can find tonnes of youtube footage and there have been some wacky lines this year.
     
  3. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Honestly I have't bet that much this year. I bet up until early February and then stopped because it distracted me from studying way too much and I had my final exams coming up in the summer. I also found that I tend to enjoy watching fights more if I don't have anything riding on them, much more relaxing and fun for me.

    I still browse the forum daily and love reading different opinions. I actually think that this is the best place to discuss MMA since everyone is so knowledgeable.

    Also, I still play Pick 'Em and one somewhat interesting thing I found is that favourites won roughly 68% of the time, since thats around my pick rate and I mostly pick favourites with a few exceptions.

    Looking forward to discussing MMA and breaking down fights with you guys!
     
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  4. TheKingOwl

    TheKingOwl White Belt

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    Start: UFC Fight Night 115 - Volkov vs. Struve
    End: UFC 219 - Cyborg vs. Holm

    2017: +13,12un

    Top 3 Profit Events
    UFC 216 - Ferguson vs. Lee (Ferguson ITD, Draw Dariush x Dunham, DJ ITD, Moraga)
    UFC 217 - Bisping vs. St. Pierre (TJ, Rose x Joanna Under Rounds, Wonderboy DEC, Borrachinha ITD, James Vick, OSP TKO, Randy Brown)
    UFC 218 - Holloway vs. Aldo 2 (Holloway ITD, Cejudo DEC, Alvarez, Tecia Torres, Yancy Medeiros)

    Top 3 Worst Events
    UFC 215 - Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2 (Shevchenko, Cejudo DEC, Adriano Martins, Latifi TKO)
    UFC Fight Night 119 - Brunson vs. Machida (Machida, Maia, Hacran Dias, Niko Price, Rob Font)
    UFC Fight Night 120 - Poirier vs. Pettis (Poirier x Pettis Rounds, Brown x Sanchez Over Rounds, Clay Guida DEC, John Dodson)

    Biggest Win
    Bet on the draw even in the second round, when Evan Dunham began to grow in the fight against Beneil Dariush.

    Biggest Loss
    Stay betting on a win by knockout of Valentina Shevchenko against Amanda Nunes during the fight. I bet on her every round and at the end for a decision win. I lost good units there.
     
  5. Papi

    Papi Blue Belt

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    Bro your the p4p champ! We should call you mighty mouse
     
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  6. ADD

    ADD White Belt

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    This is my first year capping and think I've done a ok job. I love marital art and have previous years betting just to spice the exciement up a bit on fighters that I like/don' like.
    I've tested some different ways of capping during this year and done so many wrongs along the way but I've also learned a lot from those wrongs (hopefully)
    I'm going in to a new year of capping and leaving my rookie season behind me and hoping to improve my results.

    http://www.betmma.tips/Philosopher
    Here is most of my capping this year If anyone have some spare minutes to eye through it and give me some critique both good and bad it would be appreciated.
    Happy New year
     
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  7. And

    And White Belt

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    After many years of betting on MMA and lurking on sherdog, I finally decided to start posting my bets here. Next year I'll intend to be a more active contributor on the forum instead of just posting my bets. I posted my first bets here on 10/29/17 and these are the results so far:

    UFC FN 119 +7.22u
    UFC 217 +12.115u
    UFC FN 120 +12.304u
    UFC FN 121 -6.01u
    UFC FN 122 +4.585u
    UFC 218 -1.585u
    UFC FN 123 +3.667u
    Titan FC 47 +0.423u
    UFC on FOX 26 +9.532u
    UFC 219 +11.774u

    Total profit: +54.025u

    These are only the pre-event bets that I posted in the bet-threads. Bets after the event started or live-bets are not included.

    A big thank you to everybody contributing on the betting section of the forum and a happy new year to all of you!
     
  8. danareem

    danareem Blue Belt

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    +162u on mma this year. Lost a ton on lb tennis.
    Sticking to mma, soccer and basketball only, from now.
     
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  9. Kowboy Karl

    Kowboy Karl Brown Belt

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    No more big parlays






































    No more big parlays
     
  10. BatBoyJG

    BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    Live betting tennis is nuts from my experience very -EV

    Nice bud looks good. I’m a few spots behind you there keep up the good capping!
     
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  11. 2bet

    2bet Orange Belt

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    Guys something just came to my mind, might well be that it's lame and stupid, so please give me your thoughts about it.

    I will try to succeed with a gigantic 'parlay' in 2018:

    At the next event (Stephens vs Choi) I will put 1unit on the ML that I am most confident in, totally ignoring the odds.
    In case of me winning, I will put that 1unit + the winnings all on the ML that I am most confident in for the following event.
    And so on, and so on. I am sure you get the idea already.

    I would call this the 'L-Challenge'.
    What does the L stand for?
    It's obvious isn't it - on one hand it will stand for 'Lock', on the other hand it will stand for 'Luca' (since I will probably end up on heavily favorited fighters most of the time).
    Could also be that I am done after 2 events already, who knows.

    Would anybody be interested in joining me with this?
    I could make an own thread for it, and it would be kind of a tournament.

    The winner would be the guy who survives the longest.
    This year there have been around 40 UFC events, I doubt that anybody will be able to last that long.
    In case that the two last man standing last for the same event, the one with the higher stack wins.

    On top of my head the rules would be:
    -you have to make your choice for every event, if you skip one you are out!
    -you have to be on board for the first event of the year already, joining later won't be possible!
    -you are only allowed to bet a ML, no props!
    -you are not out if the fight ends in a draw or a no contest

    There would be no prize pool, it would just be for glory and honor and fun, so you could theoretically also join if you don't bet the whole thing for real (although that makes it less interesting, I feel).
    You don't have to make screencaps for your actual bet or so.

    Sounds fun? Sounds stupid? Please gimme your feedback.
    This literally came to my mind a few minutes ago, so I might be totally off about it. But in my head it sounds like a fun community thing to do.
    I will personally do this anyway, the only question is if others are interested in it as well.

    Thank you for your attention for now :cool:
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2017
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  12. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    I used to meticulously track my bets. And lost in the long term.

    I stopped tracking and suddenly started to win. Odd... But I've worked myself slowly, surely out of the red and finally hit black this fall.

    Like piglord, some of the others, I spread myself over too many sports: hockey, soccer, tennis, american sports. And some I know nothing about. I am quite certain had I left those sports alone and stuck to MMA only I'd be much more profitable than I currently am.

    In 2018 I will restart my tracking methods for MMA/fighting and tweak my approach. Discipline and not giving in to free dopamine hits are key...

    This was useful...just to get it out of my brain and into words. Cathartic-ish. Thanks for reading.


    And I would like to thank this community and hard work many of you do and share. Your knowledge is immensely useful. Happy new year.
     
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  13. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Nice job man! I think it's awesome the way you keep your detailed stats. It definitely gives perspective on things like underdogs/parlays. It's interesting that the results are almost identical. I remember I did that with singles vs. parlays and was shocked how my profit was almost a 50/50 split between the two.
     
  14. NinjaCat456

    NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    2017 was great for me. Started betting in 2015 and honestly I didn't know what the f--k I was doing. Was betting a lot on soccer, rugby, darts etc lol. The bookies love people staking on these kind of sports and I found out why.

    Being the pedantic bastard I am I've tracked every single bet I've ever placed, so no one's asking but here are my life-long betting results:

    2015: -£94.25
    2016: -£127.76
    2017: +£1,914.23

    Lovely turnaround. Now obviously with a smaller unit size you can hide a little behind hedges & arbitrage and I absolutely do this. Nevertheless I still feel like I've learned a lot with my betting style and to an extent cured my phobia of betting on large dogs on a consistent basis.

    One exception was the Soldic/Mankowski fight in KSW last week. I capped Soldic as a -200 favourite and couldn't believe the +200 odds we got on him (closed at something like +260!). But.. pretty much the whole forum/thread insisted he was outmatched, even @JimGunn laid crazy juice on his opponent. This completely discouraged me from making the big play I felt was warranted and ended up just doing a silly free bet on him. That gnawed away at me for a few days, felt like I'd lost money, no UFC that week made it even worse.

    With that in mind I'll be increasing not just my unit size in the new year but also my ball size regarding steep dogs I feel are live.

    Onwards and upwards.
     
  15. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    I really haven't been able to track since I started school. I was up around 70 units in UFC wagers at that point and I suspect my overall yearly MMA count would fall somewhere in between 70 and 80 units.

    biggest wins of the year were on RDA (versus Magny), Masvidal (versus Cowboy), Holloway ITD (vs Aldo II), Ferg ITD (versus Lee), and Whittaker (vs Jacare)

    biggest losses were on Yair (versus Edgar), Jones DEC (versus DC II) [this one really hurt], Masvidal (versus WB), and Lewis (vs Hunt)

    if you look at my biggest winners, you can tell that i like to fade aging fighters against good, up and comers. obviously they lose from time to time (see: Yair versus Edgar) but i think we get amazing line value on these fights and it's what i like to exploit the most in these lines
     
  16. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Dont know how to count it in units, raised my unit size quite a bit since the beginning of the year
    Started of with a 2200$ BR in January. Never bet on any other sport ever before I started watching/betting on UFC in May/July 2016, barely ever watched any sport, so can't complain

    UFC +15 930$
    DWCS +1 770$
    Bellator +950$
    ACB +867$
    Titan FC +90$
    Glory +130$
    Rizin +125$
    CW +151$
    Invicta -70$
    Boxing -2 028$ (GGG/Canelo...)

    UFC stats
    2351 bets, 949 wins, 1402 losses
    ROI 107.83%. Also including freerolls so that lowers the ROI quite a bit¨
    Looking forward to new Dana Whites Contender Series, had 39 wins and 12 losses and 165% ROI there only wiki/sherdogcapping
    Had some rough ufc events during the summer and was down to around what I started with this year but rebounded nice in autumn/winter.
    Picked every main event right since Nunes/Shevchenko2 also, and that decision was questionable imo
    SEK is the currency in my spreadsheet, only including ufc fights
    upload_2018-1-2_8-33-43.png


    And I like to take a moment to thank Max Holloway for this past year,
    not including multiple parlays with him
    upload_2018-1-2_8-30-34.png
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2018
  17. Polarize

    Polarize Green Belt

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    I finished the year winning 270u, (5400 € with 1u = 20 €) (I'm raising my unit size constantly so I didn't win so many units speaking properly, I will do a better job next year with the numbers lol). I'm happy considering my goal was to make a good bankroll this year. But there is a lot of room for improvement, my previous bets were not very good compared to 2016 (I had a very good run) and some months I was somewhat frustrated and didn't have the correct mind for a daily grind. On the other hand I have not stopped winning livebetting, especially the last two months: I won a lot livebetting on Rose Clark (vs. Rawlings) Muhammad (vs. Means) Guan (vs. Caceres), Teymur (vs. Klose) Davis (vs. Carmouche), Benitez (vs Knight), Makdessi (vs Trujillo) and finally yesterday won a lot betting Hooker (vs Diakese) and Holm / Cyborg goes DEC +137 and a bit less livebetting Michal vs. (Khalil bumtree)

    The first months of the year were bad, I remember starting the year losing 10u livebetting Held vs Lauzon (wtf) and I had a terrible event where I ended up full tilt and lost a good amount of units (the event where Barboza won vs. Dariush by flying knee and Formiga lost vs Borg in the last minute lol). The biggest win of the year was yesterday (UFC 219-Holm-Cyborg) with a total profit of 1170€.

    I began playing cents 27-28 months ago with a 100€ bankroll and now I have 7.2K. So yeah, I'm happy :D.

    I have not participated much in the discussions of the fighting this year partly because English is not my language and for lack of time but as someone has said before, this is the best MMA forum and you learn a lot from the community. You guys are a nightmare for the bookies. good job !!
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2017
  18. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    @Wiktoruspro !
     
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  19. Polarize

    Polarize Green Belt

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    You are doing great, you are winning with a good ROI. Very good numbers considering this is your 1 year betting. Just be careful with the parlays, you are losing in that regard. Don't go big with parlays, parlays have a lot of variance and the bookies love the multiparlay bettors. I know some ppl in real life who can't stop doing parlays( even worst: livebetting parlays on australian soccer and shit like that. that's pure gambling) and they think that they do not win by bad luck and not by a terrible long-term strategy lol. But that's my opinion, there are people who know his shit and can be very successful with parlays.
     
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  20. Papi

    Papi Blue Belt

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    Sounds fun count me in bro!
     
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