2017 Recap & Analytics | Page 3

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 31, 2017.

  1. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
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    This wont be doable due to limits
     
    #41
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
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  2. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Started 2017 with a bankroll of $75,327. With no further deposits, I am now sitting at $215,053.

    Zooming toward retirement at geriatric pace (upgrade from tortoise pace last year).

    Started doing this in May 2015 with the intention of retiring young. So far it has gone a bit worse than expected, but to be honest my expectations were a bit too high. I fully intend to ride this bus until the wheels fall off, meaning all the top bookies ban me. I figure there must be a number at which this occurs even though they tell me otherwise.
     
    #42
  3. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Such a great result would be infinitely more interesting if you posted your bets.
     
    #43
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  4. Naterade White Belt

    Naterade
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    Dam boy! Killing em
     
    #44
  5. Soccer Steve Orange Belt

    Soccer Steve
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    “That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.” -CH

    A handy quote to keep in mind when navigating this forum at times.
     
    #45
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  6. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Biggest losses of 2017 (includes parlays and singles):

    1. Net loss of $22,000 on Mayweather-McGregor, didn't bet Mickey SU but tons of failed props. Did not expect McGregor's gas tank to be that bad
    2. Net loss over $21,000 on UFC 211, worst MMA event of the year, absolute garbage plays, took a bath that night and had to focus on regrouping
    3. Net loss almost $15,000 on UFC 214
    4 Lost $10,000 or $11,000 thinking Belfort could last O 1.5 vs Gastelum
    5. Lost $7800 thanks to BJ Penn losing to Dennis Siver, crap bet
    6. Lost $7000 fading Super Sage against Michel Quinones, horrible bet


    Worst bet of the year:

    JDS over Miocic or Maia over Woodley
     
    #46
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
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  7. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
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    You must have immense self control and calmness to keep your cool after losses like that! Makes your profit this year that much more impressive IMO.
     
    #47
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  8. waiguoren Black Belt

    waiguoren
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    Thanks. There have been times when the stress has gotten to me but overall I'm managing pretty well.

    Oddly(?) it seems to happen more with wins than losses. I had a > $53,000 profit on one UFC event and I couldn't really function for about a day afterward. Had headaches and just felt really wiped out. I seem to handle losses really well and am pretty open about them.
     
    #48
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
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  9. streetSub101 White Belt

    streetSub101
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    I built up alot of confident in 2017 with accurate mma betting. Bought a new car with my winnings. Gona use an imaginary unit size and use my paycheck to regulate my unit size. Its my confident picks that have boosted my unit size, my confident picks are not allways based on skills, Emmet pick was based on good use of steroids, Magny fight was based on intervies and a fading Condit

    My 10-15u plays over the year
    Wins
    Josh Emmet (2,4)vs Darrel hitched
    Magny(2,6)vs Condit
    Holloway (2,1) vs Aldo
    Luke Jumeo (1,85) vs Dominqe Steel
    Angela Hill(1,4) vs Ashly Yoder

    10u L
    Arlovski vs Taybar
    Jojo Calderwood (3,2)vs Cynthia Carvalio
    Lina Länsberg (3,0)vs Cynthia Carvalio
     
    #49
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  10. Yotsuya Orange Belt

    Yotsuya
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    I made my first sportsbook bet fall 2016 and I started active betting last spring, but these stats cover events since UFN 115. After rough summer I made some new rules for myself:
    1) No livebets. I mainly want to get good at prebets anyways and hate messing up my sleep pattern.
    2) No arbing as it won’t be a consistent possibility if I start betting big someday. Better to try to learn clean technique from start so to speak. Also for a beginner arbing is a distraction from actual match-up analysis.
    3) Separate gambling from bankroll bets as I sometime like to just have fun and have money on my favourites. There’s no reason to mess up my bankroll because of that, as I’m both trying to learn and have fun.
    4) As consistent bet sizes as possible to get good track record to learn from.

    Total since UFN 115: +33.5u (Before that I was -2u.)
    UFC: +25u with roi of 19% (265 bets)
    Bellator: +2u
    Mayweather - McGregor: +6.5u

    Following stats are UFC only:

    ML roi 18% (116 bets)
    My preferred ml odds range 1.7-2.8 roi was 26%.

    Itd, dec, sub and ko/tko props roi 35% (55 bets)

    Round props roi 13% (77 bets)
    R3 bets had best result with roi of 100% (37 bets and five wins).

    Does/does not go to judges + unders and overs roi -13% (17 bets)
    U2.5 had best results with roi of 155%. 5 bets, 5 wins, odds 2.0-3.35. lol

    I admit, that I’m guilty of cherry picking fallacy, as I actually do have very good records on my iPad of all my bets this year. I’m just too lazy to do statistics from all of them, as summer was very demoralizing. I’m somewhat confident though, that losing streak back then made me a more solid bettor. From now on I promise to type all my bets on Excel after each event.

    I think this year I’ll try to use 2-3u bet size range more on undercard ml bets and also increase bet sizes of R3 and u2.5 bets.

    I’m still struggling with technical analysis, so huge thanks for everyone who has helped me with that stuff.
     
    #50
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
  11. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    You came out of nowhere a couple months ago and your betting style is very similar to mine, I like it a lot!
     
    #51
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  12. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    I haven't worked out a way to track parlay results specifically on my sheet.. tho I do have the parlays listed on the side , which I could manually add up and deduct from the totals etc, I guess..

    Not sure if it's something I feel the need to track, tho, cause I don't think I'd learn anything from it
     
    #52
  13. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Time to increase unit size, no?
     
    #53
  14. timmyclax22 Blue Belt

    timmyclax22
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    And this is only MMA! No tennis or hockey, wow!
     
    #54
  15. timmyclax22 Blue Belt

    timmyclax22
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    Going to keep meticulous track of everything in 2018 (not like EZ though).

    Biggest win was Weidman over Gastelum.

    Biggest loss was Brunson losing to Silva.

    The biggest takeaway for me in 2017 was that I know what I’m watching and I need to not focus on what everyone else thinks in the forums. There were times I had bets for no good reason and times that I loved fights but didn’t bet accordingly.

    Good luck to everyone in 2018, thank you to everyone for the help and insight, and let’s make 2018 the most profitable year yet!
     
    #55
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  16. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    upload_2018-1-1_19-56-57.png
    My money over the year. Had a real bad ending but clawed my way back with UFC219. Total of +13,53U. Not bad, but not super good either. I dont play big plays and I dont make tons of plays.

    Made 260 plays, with 102 wins and 151 losses, 7 pushes. ROI 105.13%.

    Had some really nice plays I felt gooda bout like RDA vs Lawler, but everytime I tried upping my amount of units in bets the gods pulled me down, Gastelum vs Weidman, Gaethje vs Alvarez and Swanson vs Ortega being big bets I lost. Gotta be better at playing bets i feel good about with more units, now I rarely go over 2U per play.

    Biggest wins:

    Oliveira vs Brooks +5U
    Whittaker vs Jacare +3.74U
    Woodley vs Thompson +3U

    Biggest losses:

    Luke Jumeau vs Dominique Steele -3U
    Josef Benavidez vs Darren Elkins -2.5U
    Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Weidman -2.5U

    In hindsight Steele was a retard bet, but the other ones still feels good.

    Im much better at finding dogs than favorites so I gonna keep doing that. Never pay the juice again!

    I gotta, just like everyone else it seems, be better att NOT PLAYING JUST BECAUSE I CAN. Pass on fights or big events if I cant find a play i want. Dont live bet cause that always go south.

    Onwards and upwards.
     
    #56
  17. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
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    by benavidez did you mean bermudez? if so that was one of my worst plays of the year too.
     
    #57
  18. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    Oh yeah of course.
     
    #58
  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Yep I got murdered on bermudez-elkins, too
     
    #59
  20. NorthernLights Orange Belt

    NorthernLights
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    I started betting on MMA in june 2016, so 2017 was my first complete year as a bettor. My personal goal for the year was to end up with atleast 100u profit and counting the McGregor/Mayweather fight I just barely managed to pull it off so I'm really pleased with that. Especially considering that I was barely paying attention to MMA at all between 2006 and 2016 and haven't had time to watch nearly as much tape as I would have liked too. I still have TONS to learn, and there's no better place to absorb knowledge than right here! This might sound stupid to some, but I stopped posting my bets a couple of events ago because I felt that it distracted me. I actually felt like it interfered with my decision making since I was starting to think about what others might think about my bets. I know, it's extremely silly and vain but nevertheless true.

    I think the area that I've improved most in during the later part of the year is livebetting. I'm getting better at pulling the trigger and recognizing good LB opportunities and it's starting to show in my results. In fact, I think I'll try making less pre-bets this year and focus more on livebetting. I say try because I don't know if I'll even be able to watch most events live anymore since I'm becoming a father again soon. It's the greatest thing in the world, but I doubt I'll have the energy to stay up between 1AM and 7AM every weekend. It's pretty draining as it is. Looking back at my numbers for the year I also realise that my affection for lottoparlays lost my a pretty big chunk in the long run. The "tiny plays" added up over the year and if my calculations are correct I lost about 10u on such plays. Even as I type this one part of my brain is going "Dude! You just need ONE of those to hit to cover your parlay losses for the next couple of years"...I've also started doing fewer and smaller prop bets and focusing more on ML bets which seems to be benificial so far.

    2018:

    - Less parlays
    - Less prop plays
    - More livebetting (hopefully)
    - Increased unit size
     
    #60
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018

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