Burns is way too explosive. Masvidal looked like a slug in his last two fights. What is more, looking explosive against Khamzat, who is known for his explosiveness himself, is a true feat (meaning that it's not like Burns looked explosive against CM Punk -- or in Masvidal's case, against Nate Diaz).
Also, I think everyone is forgetting that the last time Masvidal won a fight was in 2019. Meanwhile, since the beginning of 2020, Burns has won 5 fights.
If logic and feats aren't enough to think Burns is going to win, let's apply some good, old-fashioned MMA Math. Masvidal couldn't handle Wonderboy or Demian Maia (though Maia was a close fight), yet Burns dominated them. And other than Usman, those are really the only relatively recent opponents that they share.