I do believe there will be war by 2030, the west will not secede power to a communist asian country without using their main advantage, thier military power.
China has not shown any ambition to become the world police like the US, their sphere of influence is regional and they wish to keep it that way. Its one of the reasons why African goverments like doing business with them, no strings attached, show me the money. No moral grandstanding, no demands to implement their system of government, etc.
But back to topic, everything going on right now points to war:
- expansion into the south china sea, creation of artificial islands and bases.
- major deployments of US carrier groups to the pacific
- Xi extending his ability to rule for life (Xi and the CCP believe there will be war and I think this is a move to consolidate things beforehand, no change in leadership equals more time and less distraction to prepare for the event)
- ongoing tensions with North Korea
- US the only country not backing OBOR
- Military spending at all time high in both nations
- increased anti-Chinese propaganda being spread in the west
- increased anti-Western propaganda being spread in China, and other asian nations as well such as the Phillipines and South Korea.
Chinas current military budget is around 200 billion, but anaylists believe the actual figure to be much higher, due to cheaper production costs and other factors.
Also, Carriers are not as powerful on the seas as they used to be due to current missle tech. I don't blame China for not investing in such expensive craft, just one can cost 10s of billions.
Its scary how much China invest in cyber warfare, hacking, etc. They've shown they have the ability to shoot down sattelites, how far along is their EMP tech? They have undetectable subs, we already know that, which makes carriers even more vulnerable.
I guess we will have to see how it all unfolds. But imo war is inevitable at this point, its just a matter of when.