i think in terms of pure athleticism, OSP is probably superior to Jones, but in terms of ability to use that athleticism and depth of skill, this fight, on paper, is not even remotely close. OSP, by no means, is a great striker, but he has his moments, he's just too weak for Jones in the grappling and clinch. OSP is loose and light and gets high marks for his willingness to commit, so anything is possible.
But the psychology of nothing to lose against a guy coming off a mountain of personal problems and setbacks is all too ripe for an upset. Jones comes in and lays wastes, its going to be a great sign of things to come for Jones; regardless of the unenthusiastic name in OSP, i think Jones will get a huge burst of confidence if he can beat OSP handily.