Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
Shit, I wished I would have looked at the scratches this morning for some of the races I'm not playing. May have put a play in on this #7 Mai Ty One On in race 6 at Belmont if I did look those up. I ended up ranking him 2nd clearly behind the morning line favourite, but well ahead of any of the others. Now the favourite has scratched out and this #7 horse is currently sitting at 7/1.
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Glad I caught this in time. I just threw a unit on Mai Ty One to win. 6 MTP.
 
t6p said:
Glad I caught this in time. I just threw a unit on Mai Ty One to win. 6 MTP.
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They're pretty shitty horse in this race, T, so who knows what we'll see. But this #7 horse has ran against better than this today and hasn't embarrassed himself. If class matters he should win. I think he also has the top recent speed figures in the field and maybe the top last out figure if I'm not mistaken.
 
Sharkey said:
They're pretty shitty horse in this race, T, so who knows what we'll see. But this #7 horse has ran against better than this today and hasn't embarrassed himself. If class matters he should win. I think he also has the top recent speed figures in the field and maybe the top last out figure if I'm not mistaken.
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Ah well, was worth a shot. He led most of the race but faded down the stretch. Odds dropped to 7/2 at the last minute too.
 
Sharkey said:
Sorry T. Was looking good til the final 1/16th then the bastard faded.
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No need to apologize, bud. I unexpectedly won about 8u on Bellator last weekend, so I'm playing with house money today.
 
t6p said:
Ah well, was worth a shot. He led most of the race but faded down the stretch. Odds dropped to 7/2 at the last minute too.
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We'll get you back in this next race with a big longshot in the Vosburgh. What say you?
 
I had Celtic Chaos ranked 3rd actually at that +0.8. Not 4th like I originally said. Behind El Deal +5.7 and Mr Crow +3.2.
 
Don't often see the margin of victory on the green stuff that Beach Patrol had right there. Big performance by him.
 
Sharkey said:
Don't often see the margin of victory on the green stuff that Beach Patrol had right there. Big performance by him.
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Sadler's Joy was coming on strong there at the end too, but ran of room to get us that second place finish.
 
t6p said:
Sadler's Joy was coming on strong there at the end too, but ran of room to get us that second place finish.
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For a moment mid stretch I thought we were looking good because once Beach Patrol started pulling away I caught Sadler's Joy making up a lot of ground. Not sure what happened there with him, whether he flattened out a little late or what.
 
Pretty decent chance we see both of the Breeders Cup Juvenile winners in these next two races at Santa Anita. There's 3 top two year-old girls racing next in the G1 Chandelier. Then maybe the top 2 two year-old boys in the race after that in the G1 Front Runner, although I think that division has a pretty clear #1 so far in Bolt d'Oro who handled Zatter easily enough last time despite only winning by a length or so.
 


Pretty incredible for a 3 year-old filly to win the Arc, which is as prestigious a race as any in the world (arguably the most prestigious turf race in the world). But she's already showed before the race today that she could be something well beyond ordinary. Good luck to any of the horses trying to beat her if she comes over for the BC Turf race because they are going to need it. A lot of it. She's already crushed last year's BC Turf winner in Highland Reel by daylight earlier this summer;

 
Bolt d'Oro earned a 100 Beyer for his romp yesterday in the Front Runner, and forget about people simply picking him to win the BC Juvenile next month, there's already a bunch of people proclaiming him next year's Derby winner.
 
My (losing) plays for a few of tomorrow's races, which is the last chance for these guys to get a prep race in before the Breeders Cup next month;


Jockey Club Gold Cup - I'm going with the #1 Diversify (7/2 morning line odds) to win for 2u. Will be getting a class test as well as a distance test, but I'm not sure who is going to run with this guy in the early going (or even capable of it) unless Pletcher wants to sacrifice one of his runners in here to set the race up for Keen Ice. Think this one may have a real tactical advantage as the lone speed and if he gets loose out there I'm not sure anybody can catch him. My numbers have him as the top horse with only a slight 0.1 edge over the favourite in Keen Ice.

Shadwell Turf Mile - I have the #10 Heart to Heart (7/2) to win here for 2u, but also going to play the #6 Ballagh Rocks (10/1) to place for 2u as well as an exacta box with those two for 1u each. Looks like another race that could be won on the front end considering the lack of pace signed on, so I'll go with the two that may be sitting one-two in the early running and who have both shown emough class to compete here and are both in form. The top two on my numbers as well.

Santa Anita Sprint - I'll play the #1 Ransom the Moon (5/2) to win here for 1u, only because I think there's a chance he drifts up from that line. Roy H is going to be bet heavily in this spot (probably down to odds on), as I'm sure will be the case for American Anthem. Might get something like 5/1 on this guy maybe. Ransom the Moon is in career form right now (hasn't finished worse than 2nd for over a year) having ran his best races in his last few efforts and likes the Santa Anita track with 2 wins and a second in 3 career starts there. Ranks 2nd on my numbers behind Roy H.


Fade away.
 
I wanted to find something to play in both the Champagne and Breeders Futurity tomorrow too, but there is going to be too much guess work there because none of those horses really look like they are capable of winning those races as of now, so it becomes a complete guessing game in regards to who will improve the most. I watched some video and all I saw was a bunch of extremely green runners who don't really look like they have much natural talent once they do figure things out. None of them look like they'd even be able to warm Bolt d'Oro up next month in the BC Juvenile nevermind be able to beat him.
 
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