Now lets look at the ThoroGraph numbers and the (patterns) of these runners for the past three races;
Gun Runner - 6 1/2, 5 1/2, 5 (P, P, P)
Nyquist - 2 3/4, 2 3/4, 3 (P, P, P)
Exaggerator - 2 1/2, 2 1/2, 0 3/4 (T, P, T)
Outwork - 6 3/4, 2 3/4, 1 1/2 (T, T, T)
Brody's Cause - 7 1/2, 8, 3 (X, X, P)
Creator - 5 1/2, 4 1/2, 2 1/4 (T, P, T)
Lani - 9 1/2, 5 (2 races no pattern)
Mor Spirit - 3, 1 1/4, 4 1/2 (O, P, O)
Mohaymen - 2 1/2, 1, 5 (P, T, X)
Danzing Candy - 4, 1, 8 1/2 (P, T, X)
Destin - 9, 7, -0 3/4 (O, P, T)
Suddenbreakingnews - 3, 4 1/4, 1 1/4 (T, O, T)
Oscar Nominated - 12, 9, 5 (X, O, T)
Shagaf - 5, 4, 5 1/2 (O, P, O)
Whitmore - 4 1/2, 2 1/2, 2 1/2 (T, T, P)
Tom's Ready - 5 1/2, 10, 5 1/2 (T, X, P)
My Man Sam - 6, 4, 3 1/2 (T, T, P)
Majesto - 9, 7 1/2, 5 3/4 (O, O, P)
Trojan Nation - 12 1/2, 9 1/4, 4 1/2 (O, P, T)
Mo Tom - 5 1/2, 5 3/4, 6 3/4 (P, P, O)
Dont have the TG numbers for the AE's yet.
Also, the lower the number the better if you're not familiar with Thorograph
T = ran a new top race improving thier previous top number by 1 or more
P = the horse paired their previous top figure meaning they came within 1 point either way
O = an off race where the horse had a number that was between 1 and 4 points lower than their previous top race
X = the horse was 4 or more points worse than their previous top race
There's some fluctuation from year to year in the percentages when it comes to the patterns, but historically for 3 year-olds at this time of year patterns like (T, P, T) and (P, P, T) are the better ones for a horse about to run a new top race. A (P, P, T) pattern is quite good as well. A (T, T, T) pattern may seem really good, but it's just okay. Not great, but not bad either. Patterns like (P, P, P) and (T, P, P) are some of the best for pairing up again a previous top race. Patterns with an X in it in a most recent race are obviously bad news for the horse. A (T, T, X) or (T, O, X) pattern right near the bottom. Generally shows a horse running too hard to get that new top figure and doesn't recover for some time afterwards. These patterns are for all 3 year-olds races at this time of year and not specific for the Derby itself
For the Derby, though? I'm not going to offer up data on the three race pattern because that would be may too much work and way too many different combinations. But I did do some calculating for the last race and then the last two races for past Derby winners and top 3 finishers;
- Since TG started keeping their own data in 1982, 19 of the 34 Derby winners ran a new T (top) in their final prep race. 9 of those Derby winners ran a P (pair) in their final prep. 5 of them won the Derby after running an O (off) race. And only one came after running an X race last time out
- Those with a (P, T) pattern in their final two preps won 12 of the last 34 Derbys, which is the most. 7 Derby winners came into the race race with a (T, T) pattern in their final two preps. 5 of them had a (P, P) pattern. 4 had a (T, P) pattern. 3 of them had a (T, O) pattern. And (P,O), (P, X), and (O, O) all had 1 win each.
I only found data for the top 3 finishers of the Derby from 1997 on. But when added up (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
P, T - (6, 5, 1 record)
P, P - (4, 4, 4)
T, T - (3, 2, 5)
T, P - (2, 4, 1)
T, O - (3, 0, 1)
O, P - (0, 1, 3)
O, O - (1, 0, 1)
O, T - (0, 1, 1)
T, X - (0, 1, 1)
X, T - (0, 0, 1)
Those with a (P, O), (P, X), (O, X), (X, O), (X, P) or (X, X) pattern in their final two prep races didn't produce a single top 3 finisher in the Derby over those 19 years.