Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
I haven't looked at the race much besides just a quick browsing of the PP's, but my first instinct is to try to beat Arrogate with Baffert's other horse, Collected. I'd expect Arrogate gets bet down to about 1/5 in the pools, so hopefully that means Collected is around 5/1. I'll be okay with those odds I think. Either play it that way and try to gamble a little. Or just pass on the race completely.
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Bet365 locks in your odds so I figure I may as well take a shot on Arrogate. He would be -1000 if he hadn't put up a stinker in his last race.
 
He's also currently +110 to win the Breeders Cup, wish I could play the field for that race.
 
kenfloshogun said:
Bet365 locks in your odds so I figure I may as well take a shot on Arrogate. He would be -1000 if he hadn't put up a stinker in his last race.
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That's entirely true about what his odds would be, K. No doubt. And if Arrogate shows up ready to run his best, or even something close to his best, he beats these horses by daylight. It's up to us to try to figure out the probability of that happening, though, which is the hard part. He barely lifted a hoof his last race and nobody knows the reason behind that. Nobody offered up any excuses for it, not even Baffert. Was it just as simple as he just didn't feel like running that day? Or is there something deeper going on in his mind? We'll find out I guess. I do hope he's back to being his normal self just because horses who can perform like him are so very rare. But there also might be an opportunity to gamble a little against him for me in the pools too since he is going to be such a heavy favourite.
 
Looking over the field for the G1 Alabama on Saturday, and to me I have to bet the #1 New Money Honey (6/1 morning line) in that race. Too many things to like about her;

Has the highest last out Brisnet speed rating. Is the only G1 winner in the field and she's done it twice so far, which makes her the class of the field. Is one of only two in the field who has won at this 10F distance, and that was her last race in a G1. Her previous E2 high before the last race was a 95, yet she ran a huge 127 E2 in her last race, so she fits that angle. Also got that "lung opener" just before what will now be her 3rd start off a layoff. This will be her first start on dirt after running on turf, so there's a question there. But her pedigree says she can handle it, she visually looks like she could handle it, and her trainer is quite successful when it comes to making the "turf to dirt" move (DRF claims he is 5 for 11 when moving horses from turf to dirt with last out winners). Even moreso than with Good Samaritan a couple weeks back, this is entirely a move out of confidence rather than desperation. Shit, she's won 4 of her last 5 turf races including a G1 last time out. The trainer has no reason at all to move her off the green stuff unless he has total confidence that she'll handle the surface switch quite well.

6/1 looks like a gift to me, and considering her trainer (Chad Brown) and jockey (Castellano) I'd be a little shocked if I can get that on Saturday. But you never know. I'd probably be more than happy betting her at 4/1 or thereabouts.
 
Pretty sure these will be my plays for tomorrow's races for me;

- #1 New Honey Honey (6/1 morning line) to win the G1 Alabama for 3u. Exacta box with her and #6 Salty (9/2 morning line) for 0.5u each

- #5 Itsinthepost (4/1 morning line) to win the G2 Del Mar Handicap for 2u, and then the #1 Liam the Charmer (12/1 morning line) to both place for 1u and to show for 1.5u in the same race

- #2 Collected (5/2 morning line) to win the G1 Pacific Classic for 1.5u
 
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Going to be a fun day with a whole bunch of G1 racing in the afternoon and followed up by what should be a fantastic comedy show later on in the evening.
 
Whether it has to do with the Del Mar surface or if the horse has fallen off some, this doesn't look like the same horse to me at least as far as his final pre-race workouts go. First off you have the instance coming off the turn when the rider has to yank Arrogate's head off to the side just to get him to change leads well after he should have. What's up with that? The horse more than knows his job by now. He shouldn't have to be told to switch leads at that time and nevermind with that type of force. Also look at the lack of reach Arrogate shows when he's coming to the wire (I got him at apx 23.5 foot stride length). I mean, that is still a really good reach for a horse coming to the wire. But for Arrogate and what he's shown in the past at the end of his workouts (apx 25 foot stride length), it's definitely on the short side. He's not displaying the power and reach he always did in in his final workout of his other races. Maybe it's the track itself, which is possible. Or maybe he's lacking the focus and enthusiasm for racing that he once had. And maybe it doesn't even matter if it's one or the other, or even both. 90% Arrogate likely still wins if he is in fact at 90%. But it'll be interesting to see how he runs tomorrow nonetheless.

 
Man I can't even explain just what happened I the big race today in Sydney @Sharkey


O MY GODDDDD.
Will get the replay as soon as it's up
 
Sharkey said:
Pretty sure these will be my plays for tomorrow's races for me;

- #1 New Honey Honey (6/1 morning line) to win the G1 Alabama for 3u. Exacta box with her and #6 Salty (9/2 morning line) for 0.5u each

- #5 Itsinthepost (4/1 morning line) to win the G2 Del Mar Handicap for 2u, and then the #1 Liam the Charmer (12/1 morning line) to both place for 1u and to show for 1.5u in the same race

- #2 Collected (5/2 morning line) to win the G1 Pacific Classic for 1.5u
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Going to add a small exacta box in the Alabama. The Saratoga track looks good today after being muddy yesterday, which was a little concerning. Wanted the track to either be fast or sloppy loose if betting New Money Honey. The sticky stuff, whether it be a drying out cuppy track or after a fresh rain, may have presented an added problem for her. Like her a lot today, and really like the value that Liam the Charmer should present in that turf race at Del Mar as he's always been right there at the wire within a half length or so when he's raced the favourites in this race in the past, and has even finished ahead of them on occasion. He should also relish this distance today better than most of them.
 
Shit, I think I was just given a sign by Lord Gamblor himself. Right after making that last post up there, I opened up the pantry and the first thing I saw was a big box of this;

z33kNkf.jpg


I mean, that has to be a sign for betting the Alabama right?
 
Sharkey said:
Pretty sure these will be my plays for tomorrow's races for me;

- #1 New Honey Honey (6/1 morning line) to win the G1 Alabama for 3u. Exacta box with her and #6 Salty (9/2 morning line) for 0.5u each

- #5 Itsinthepost (4/1 morning line) to win the G2 Del Mar Handicap for 2u, and then the #1 Liam the Charmer (12/1 morning line) to both place for 1u and to show for 1.5u in the same race

- #2 Collected (5/2 morning line) to win the G1 Pacific Classic for 1.5u
Click to expand...

Tailing everything as usual Shark. Good luck today sir, thanks for sharing.
 
Sharkey said:
Shit, I think I was just given a sign by Lord Gamblor himself. Right after making that last post up there, I opened up the pantry and the first thing I saw was a big box of this;

z33kNkf.jpg


I mean, that has to be a sign for betting the Alabama right?
Click to expand...

Love it!
 
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