I think I have some solid value here. Odds up for a couple of hours more.
Dota 2 - Captain's draft Lan
Favorites to win are Team Secret, OG and Vici gaming. Also in the tournament are EG, Empire, Pain, Mski and Col.
If everyone played to their full potential Secret would probably win this at least 50% of the time. That said I happen to know from a very good source that Secret has not been bootcamping and that they'll figure out how to play this game mode on site which they got to a couple of days ago. They're already set with qualifiers points and gets invited to everything due to their stellar fall so I'm fairly sure that they just celebrated new years and christmas, let their star mid player go home to south east asia to hang out with his family (his dad died a couple of months back) and basically chilled. In short, they don't care that much about this tournament.
OG might be a dark horse, but like Secret they're mostly a western team and has had christmas + new years after their last tournament where they under preformed. I can't find anything about them bootcamping so gotta guess they are not going 100% tryhard. They do need some ranking points to feel safe, but they're not hurting by any means. They also lost to a tier 2 team at some qualifiers just before Christmas so I'm guessing it's safe to say they're not in shape.
EG has had roster changes, looked bad for a long time and I'm not sure the changes are for the better. I'd be very surprised if they made the finals here, despite them having a lot of talent.
Vici on the other hand has spent the last 10 days or so going 8-0 in series including wins over Newbee x2 (top5 team in the world by most metrics), VG.J and Ehome which are all solid wins in china. They're also in need of some ranking points, they have the same score as OG but it's much harder to qualify for tournaments from China then Europe so they might tryhard.
I think Vici for anything over +300 is a steal, and I'm fairly big on it. Vici to get to the finals at + money might be even better, since they will probably be on the other side of the bracket from Team Secret.
I also like Vici to win the quickest game at +400, it's a crapshoot but they will probably get to go deep (more matches) and they're the 3rd quickest average in wins of the teams in the tournament over a big sample this patch. They also have a good chance to get a shitty team in their quarterfinals, which is nice for this.
As for longest game I went with Team Empire at +2100 (lol, I slashed the odds in half), I'm not even sure they'll win more then a game or two, but I think they might end up against OG in the quarterfinals which then puts a team that the last year or so has been in a lot of stupid long games (think they hold the record) against a team that, when they're in the zone, never ever gives up no matter what tiny chance they think they have no matter how fucking high you need to be to even see that chance. It honestly could hit.