RIZIN, MMA, betting thread

EndlessCritic said:
can't say betting on anyone with a loss to Tezuka thrills me
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It was a bit of a retarted stoppage by the ref. Eating rabbit punches in a triangle and the ref jumps in. Il be passing anyway as I have a few plays already.

Im on Merkulov in the first fight. Both dudes look average although 1.33 on Hasan who is a huge can crusher is nuts. Took 3.20
 
Farida Abdueva vs. Anastasiya Svetkivska footage

Both are striking-heavy with weak grappling. Abdueva is currently +160. I think she edges the striking with her kicks, although it's hard to tell because she hasn't been tested against strong competition. Long, straight punches from Svetkivska will make things challenging. BJJ edge to Svetkivska, as Abdueva almost got triangled by Luneva. Svetkivska got subbed by Izawa, who didn't know how to finish a triangle (kept angling her body toward the trapped arm, rather than away from it).

Curious what you guys think.
 
B.Goetz said:
Farida Abdueva vs. Anastasiya Svetkivska footage

Both are striking-heavy with weak grappling. Abdueva is currently +160. I think she edges the striking with her kicks, although it's hard to tell because she hasn't been tested against strong competition. Long, straight punches from Svetkivska will make things challenging. BJJ edge to Svetkivska, as Abdueva almost got triangled by Luneva. Svetkivska got subbed by Izawa, who didn't know how to finish a triangle (kept angling her body toward the trapped arm, rather than away from it).

Curious what you guys think.
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i was tempted, passing because of the jits and the face the fav might be a bit more physical. Has a long Amateur career
 
Archuleta touching even feels off. easy play.

Is Horiguchi sick? Makoto is getting tons of action and Gooch is now only -215.

lol at izawa -1800, tanabe -800 and ota -1200. easy fades.

sad motoya is -140. playing him as a dog is a new years tradition
 
EndlessCritic said:
Archuleta touching even feels off. easy play.

Is Horiguchi sick? Makoto is getting tons of action and Gooch is now only -215.

lol at izawa -1800, tanabe -800 and ota -1200. easy fades.

sad motoya is -140. playing him as a dog is a new years tradition
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Horiguchi is 33 years old and fighting an explosive opponent ten years his junior with a lot of professional experience. I cant say definitively that Makoto is going to win and do think the fight only being 3 rounds favors Horiguchi but its a clear dog or pass imo. I like the offensive dynamism of Makoto and he is rapidly improving fight to fight, whereas Horiguchi has made the weight one time in the past 7 years, is definitely out of his prime, and has been knocked out in two of his previous three losses.

I also couldn't find a single instance in the last ten years, in fights with betting odds, where a mens 125er 10+ years older than their opponent won.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Horiguchi is 33 years old and fighting an explosive opponent ten years his junior with a lot of professional experience. I cant say definitively that Makoto is going to win and do think the fight only being 3 rounds favors Horiguchi but its a clear dog or pass imo. I like the offensive dynamism of Makoto and he is rapidly improving fight to fight, whereas Horiguchi has made the weight one time in the past 7 years, is definitely out of his prime, and has been knocked out in two of his previous three losses.

I also couldn't find a single instance in the last ten years, in fights with betting odds, where a mens 125er 10+ years older than their opponent won.
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All fair. But, Horiguchi looked in his usual form against Ougikubo. Losing 48-47 18 months ago to Mix speaks to how good he still is.

Pretty sure Horiguchi closed -250 against Mokoto for their fight in Bellator. What's changed in a few months and an eye poke?
 
EndlessCritic said:
All fair. But, Horiguchi looked in his usual form against Ougikubo. Losing 48-47 18 months ago to Mix speaks to how good he still is.

Pretty sure Horiguchi closed -250 against Mokoto for their fight in Bellator. What's changed in a few months and an eye poke?
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Horiguchi both opened and closed -400 in June for the original fight against Makoto but was opened fifty points lower at -350 for the upcoming fight. I agree the disparity between his closing price in June and his current price is odd but imo its nothing more than the market correcting itself. Likely due to the increased attention the event is receiving from combat sports bettors due to the lack of other events going on at the moment.

If you think Horiguchi is the side then of course you should follow your own instincts especially given the price is now significantly better. Personally, I will never lay juice on a fighter 10+ years older than their opponent in the lighter weight classes, especially when that older fighter is over 32 like Horiguchi. I taped the fight back in November when the odds dropped but Horiguchi is not a fighter I was overly familiar with prior to that so its likely you know him far better than I.

good luck with whatever you decide.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Horiguchi both opened and closed -400 in June for the original fight against Makoto but was opened fifty points lower at -350 for the upcoming fight. I agree the disparity between his closing price in June and his current price is odd but imo its nothing more than the market correcting itself. Likely due to the increased attention the event is receiving from combat sports bettors due to the lack of other events going on at the moment.

If you think Horiguchi is the side then of course you should follow your own instincts especially given the price is now significantly better. Personally, I will never lay juice on a fighter 10+ years older than their opponent in the lighter weight classes, especially when that older fighter is over 32 like Horiguchi. I taped the fight back in November when the odds dropped but Horiguchi is not a fighter I was overly familiar with prior to that so its likely you know him far better than I.

good luck with whatever you decide.
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Makoto relies heavily on his speed and athleticism to win scrambles. He reminds me a lot of a young Urijah Faber. He hasn't shown anything suggesting he has great KO power or speed in his hands.

Horiguchi is by far the most athletic guy he's faced, and the notion that Makoto will be able to lie on Horiguchi strikes me as unlikely.

It could be the passing of the torch. More likely, Horiguchi hurts him on the feet, and wins a clear decision.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Makoto relies heavily on his speed and athleticism to win scrambles. He reminds me a lot of a young Urijah Faber. He hasn't shown anything suggesting he has great KO power or speed in his hands.

Horiguchi is by far the most athletic guy he's faced, and the notion that Makoto will be able to lie on Horiguchi strikes me as unlikely.

It could be the passing of the torch. More likely, Horiguchi hurts him on the feet, and wins a clear decision.
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Curious on your input regarding the two Ren kickboxers. Why such a big disparity in odds. Hiramoto seems more technical thats about it
 
Who is laying the juice on Dodson at these odds?

I’ll take Ougikubo @3,60, he’s a fairly good guy. Dodson looked shopworn vs Rivera. Ougikubo brings a good pace. Slight lean Dodson, so great value on Ougikubo.

Agreed with @EndlessCritic on Horiguchi. Personally, I’ve felt for the past few years that Horiguchi was the best flyweight in the planet, even with Figgy still in the division.

I’ll need to bet Archuleta if he gets any closer to evens.
 
BigSteve said:
Curious on your input regarding the two Ren kickboxers. Why such a big disparity in odds. Hiramoto seems more technical thats about it
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I don't have useful thoughts.

I completely wrote off Hiramoto after he suffered what appeared to be a life alerting beatdown against Hagiwara. Seriously, if you've never seen it, it's one of the most savage lunch money stealing beatdowns you'll ever watch:



Since then Hiramoto seems to have made massive improvements in his takedown defence. He practically looked like Mcgregor against Yamasu, and arguably beat Saito. However, these were fights against grapplers.

Sugiyama is the best striker he's fought in a while, and just retired Mikuru Asakaru. Assuming this is going to be a standup fight, I have no lean. So, not hard to justify Sugiyama at +120.
 
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Macaque said:
Who is laying the juice on Dodson at these odds?

I’ll take Ougikubo @3,60, he’s a fairly good guy. Dodson looked shopworn vs Rivera. Ougikubo brings a good pace. Slight lean Dodson, so great value on Ougikubo.

Agreed with @EndlessCritic on Horiguchi. Personally, I’ve felt for the past few years that Horiguchi was the best flyweight in the planet, even with Figgy still in the division.

I’ll need to bet Archuleta if he gets any closer to evens.
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At 39 years old, Dodson certainly seems to be the exception to the aging flyweights rule.

Despite his age, he doesn't seem to have lost his speed. While I've always hated his style, I think he's a bad matchup for Ougikoubo. Will likely sprinkle on Ougikoubo for action.
 
And just like that, Horiguchi is already back to -265 after I bet him at -220.
 
EndlessCritic said:
At 39 years old, Dodson certainly seems to be the exception to the aging flyweights rule.

Despite his age, he doesn't seem to have lost his speed. While I've always hated his style, I think he's a bad matchup for Ougikoubo. Will likely sprinkle on Ougikoubo for action.
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He definitely looks good for his age. However, he gassed (after an admittedly high pace R1) and didn’t show the same titanium chin vs Rivera, and could have easily lost that fight or gone to a draw. Meanwhile, Saomoto didn’t seem to have the size or punching power to make him worried.

That said, he’s still very fast, the chin is still good even if it isn’t as good, and he can crack.
 
Does anyone know what Archuleta has? Heard he’s sick.
 
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