UFC 226

[electricute]

Good breakdowns. I have been going back and forth on Millender and Griffin. I do agree that a strong wrestler is going to give Millender problems, I'm not sure Griffin is that guy though.

Millender is improving from his LFA fights, especially his hands, he doesn't throw a whole lot of volume but his punches are quick and accurate. He trains with Bobby Green. He is turning into more than a flash head kick guy. I think he was winning the Thiago Alves fight, albeit close when you factor in the knockdown.

Griffin in all his fights has had the reach and speed advantage for the most part but those advantages are negated in this fight. Griffin will pressure Millender but Millender fights well off his back foot and uses a long straight jab to back opponents off. I agree the head kick will be hard for Millender to land because of the stances. One thing that Griffin does poorly is in clinches and against the cage, he has a habit of dipping his head low. That's a recipe for getting hit with a big knee or uppercut which Millender alluded that he is going to do and because Millender's legs are super long and quick, he hits it so quick out of nowhere. Griffin was having trouble with Zaleski who was just as fast as him but was at a reach disadvantage. The Perry win was overrated, any good striker who will stick and move and avoid trading bombs will beat Perry. Griffin is essentially a 1-2 guy, nothing else. He is a boxer and doesn't throw leg kicks really.

The thing about betting Millender if it hits the scorecards, does he throw volume enough to warrant a decision.

i dont think so. millender is looking for the KO with the head kick or knees. i think griffin throws more volume and pushes forward which judges love. I do think millender is going to be a great fighter and has great spead and range well. i just noticed some flaws when he is pressured

So you give Pettis total 40% chance to win but you're willing to bet him at -115 or better?

I like reading your breakdowns but I don't get the logic behind the above.

ya you are right, calculation error, at first i had it closer to even, but rethought about it and ended with chiesa around -150, forgot to change the odds

I like the write ups and percentages Electricute. This will be one of my largest betting cards but I usually wait until close to the fight to bet.

I have Cormier and Miocic at 55/45 favoring Cormier and put $300 on Cormier as a +240 dog. Even though he hasn’t had a large amount of takedowns in his recent fights, the takedowns he gets are highly efficient (I.e really works the opponent and wears out the opponent). I think Miocic can and will get taken down and burn a ton of energy. My major concern is an early knockout as he is facing a taller opponent and will have to take big risks going for the tie up (similar to when he last fought Jones and got caught when committing from distance).

One variable I think your wrong is Cormier’s weight, I think there is a good chance he weighs in around 245 and comes in heavier than Miocic. Chael Sonnen is also predicting this and you will see a big shift in lines if this is true. Around fight time I see Cormier closing at around +140.

ya i saw the same interview saying that cormier is gaurenteed to come in at 237 at least. from all the interviews and videos of him i've seen he looks like a big boy. you are right in that we haven't really seen miocic fight off his back and don't know what his ground game is. i just dont think cormier can land that takedown consistently. on the taller miocic, he wont be able to get double underhooks against the cage and will also have to shoot single legs rather than doubles.i'm likely going to take the free money on cormier (got stipe at -175) and then bet fight to go decision

 

[mkess101]

I like the write ups and percentages Electricute. This will be one of my largest betting cards but I usually wait until close to the fight to bet.

I have Cormier and Miocic at 55/45 favoring Cormier and put $300 on Cormier as a +240 dog. Even though he hasn’t had a large amount of takedowns in his recent fights, the takedowns he gets are highly efficient (I.e really works the opponent and wears out the opponent). I think Miocic can and will get taken down and burn a ton of energy. My major concern is an early knockout as he is facing a taller opponent and will have to take big risks going for the tie up (similar to when he last fought Jones and got caught when committing from distance).

One variable I think your wrong is Cormier’s weight, I think there is a good chance he weighs in around 245 and comes in heavier than Miocic. Chael Sonnen is also predicting this and you will see a big shift in lines if this is true. Around fight time I see Cormier closing at around +140.

I was going to post something similar about DC's takedowns but saw this post so I'll just quote it. @electricute I like your breakdowns overall, let me just say that right off the bat. But like @Joedaman55 says, DC only hitting 3 TD's in a fight doesn't sound like much until you realize he then dominated the majority of the rest of a round with the one TD he hit in that round. As it applies to this fight, I'll just say that Stipe does NOT want DC on top of him. Maybe Stipe's size and athleticism allow him to get back to his feet, but overall DC (both at HW and LHW) has been able to keep guys down once he gets them there.

 

[OutRun]

Not really pro level pad work imo, but that doesn't mean much.

this video actually looks way worse.

the quality and quantity of sparring partners has massively increased, I think that will play a factor in his performance. huge confidence increase training with Condit, Cowboy, Sanchez

Figured it was just a distraction but thanks for taking note.

 

[MT6ix]

I was going to post something similar about DC's takedowns but saw this post so I'll just quote it. @electricute I like your breakdowns overall, let me just say that right off the bat. But like @Joedaman55 says, DC only hitting 3 TD's in a fight doesn't sound like much until you realize he then dominated the majority of the rest of a round with the one TD he hit in that round. As it applies to this fight, I'll just say that Stipe does NOT want DC on top of him. Maybe Stipe's size and athleticism allow him to get back to his feet, but overall DC (both at HW and LHW) has been able to keep guys down once he gets them there.

I agree with you. The one thing I'm surprised no one has mentioned is that DC cuts a decent amount of weight to get to 205 from what I hear. Without having to cut weight and being drained, I think he is going to look pretty good albeit undersized against Miocic.

 

[electricute]

I agree with you. The one thing I'm surprised no one has mentioned is that DC cuts a decent amount of weight to get to 205 from what I hear. Without having to cut weight and being drained, I think he is going to look pretty good albeit undersized against Miocic.

this video 2 weeks out. looks like DC is at least 250. in the earlier episodes, his camp keeps saying that he has come into the camp heavy. that he's not where he wants to be shape wise, that he's heavy. DC is def coming in heavy

 

[Wiktoruspro]

When is the last time Stipe faced a wrestler ? Take also to notice that at lhw Cormier was weaker because of the weighcut and he took anyway down guys with good tdd (GUS, Hendo ? , Rumble and JJ in first fight)
I believe a heavy Cormier will take Stipe down and MAYBE make it look easy on the ground.

 

[GrantSorenson]

The pad guy is doing ok. Perry is just not a natural boxer so it looks awkward. You could put a 15 year old amateur boxer on the pads and he would look 100x more fluid than that. Perry looks like hes throwing the punches while underwater.

 

[Bodybuilder]

Thoughts on Hall - Costa?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Thoughts on Hall - Costa?

Costa should win but He fights Uriah Hall and imo isnt worth the risk at this odds.

 

[Gugabe]

Costa should win but He fights Uriah Hall and imo isnt worth the risk at this odds.

Yeah. Hall +375 is pretty silly. I think this is close to a coin-flip, considering how unproven Costa is.

 

[electricute]

costa is a tank, but -400ish is off. hall has looked pretty chinny recently and costa hits hard. i don't know if hall can deal with the stregnth of costa. dog or pass imo.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Hall has a 7" reach advantage, Costa has beaten nobody and has an unproven chin...I just don't see how Hall is this big of an underdog

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Hall has a 7" reach advantage, Costa has beaten nobody and has an unproven chin...I just don't see how Hall is this big of an underdog

I woudlnt call the former ww champ a nobody but truth is that Costa is Stilo unproven and has suspicious cardo

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I woudlnt call the former ww champ a nobody but truth is that Costa is Stilo unproven and has suspicious cardo

Hendricks looked like he was on crack in pre-fight interviews. He is completely washed up which is why he retired.

Hall isn't a world beater, but he's a HUGE step up in competition for Costa.

 

[Monster Meat]

Hall just never goes for it he’s so timid. He was so hyped from tuf but even on the show he admits to having huge confidence issues.

 

[Stunna77]

I like the write ups and percentages Electricute. This will be one of my largest betting cards but I usually wait until close to the fight to bet.

I have Cormier and Miocic at 55/45 favoring Cormier and put $300 on Cormier as a +240 dog. Even though he hasn’t had a large amount of takedowns in his recent fights, the takedowns he gets are highly efficient (I.e really works the opponent and wears out the opponent). I think Miocic can and will get taken down and burn a ton of energy. My major concern is an early knockout as he is facing a taller opponent and will have to take big risks going for the tie up (similar to when he last fought Jones and got caught when committing from distance).

One variable I think your wrong is Cormier’s weight, I think there is a good chance he weighs in around 245 and comes in heavier than Miocic. Chael Sonnen is also predicting this and you will see a big shift in lines if this is true. Around fight time I see Cormier closing at around +140.

Not sure I am following here, you think it is a confidence increase for Cormier to come in fat? His frame isn't changing, Miocic is the naturally bigger man, by far.

 

[Joedaman55]

Not sure I am following here, you think it is a confidence increase for Cormier to come in fat? His frame isn't changing, Miocic is the naturally bigger man, by far.

I don’t think it’s fat at all, his body type looks similar to many people I’ve seen in The World’s Strongest Man competitions. I think Miocic is taller and stalkier but I consider both fighters about the same size and both fight around their natural weight in this fight.

The confidence increase in the general public will come when people realize how similar their weight is and Cormier isn’t fighting a much bigger fighter, just a taller fighter.

 

[raketmannen]

I don’t think it’s fat at all, his body type looks similar to many people I’ve seen in The World’s Strongest Man competitions. I think Miocic is taller and stalkier but I consider both fighters about the same size and both fight around their natural weight in this fight.

The confidence increase in the general public will come when people realize how similar their weight is and Cormier isn’t fighting a much bigger fighter, just a taller fighter.

If Stipe had the same amount of bodyfat as DC he would come in at 265, having similar weight does not mean one fighter is not bigger than the other. Both Tuivasa and Lesnar weighs in at the same weight

 

[Joedaman55]

Yeah. Hall +375 is pretty silly. I think this is close to a coin-flip, considering how unproven Costa is.

I actually see the odds about right, possible Costa favored more. I can’t see a path for Hall outside of a bad weight cut or weird injury.

If you are judging probability primarily based on fight records and who he’s fought you are extremely underrating Costa, this guy is probably the next big fighter at that weight class.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Hall just never goes for it he’s so timid. He was so hyped from tuf but even on the show he admits to having huge confidence issues.

Hall and his confidence issues is goin to have a hard time overcoming something as scary as that. Costa throws a good clip too whereas Hall never really gets much done, hes not judge friendly, hes a finisher by and large. Flying knees, wheel kicks and spinning back kicks that just happen to hand on an opponents face instead of the part of the body he aimed for are low percentage KOs though. A lot of times hes too close for the spin. Costa is not about to "retire" on his stool for you. Costa is not about to get GnP KOed for you. The only fghter Hall has had effective punching on his feet was against Jotko and it was only effective for that one right hand lol. You guys thinking Hall has a shot are hoping for a lottery ticket finish ala Mousasi or you're hoping his right cross shows up, thats all youve got.