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Good breakdowns. I have been going back and forth on Millender and Griffin. I do agree that a strong wrestler is going to give Millender problems, I'm not sure Griffin is that guy though.
Millender is improving from his LFA fights, especially his hands, he doesn't throw a whole lot of volume but his punches are quick and accurate. He trains with Bobby Green. He is turning into more than a flash head kick guy. I think he was winning the Thiago Alves fight, albeit close when you factor in the knockdown.
Griffin in all his fights has had the reach and speed advantage for the most part but those advantages are negated in this fight. Griffin will pressure Millender but Millender fights well off his back foot and uses a long straight jab to back opponents off. I agree the head kick will be hard for Millender to land because of the stances. One thing that Griffin does poorly is in clinches and against the cage, he has a habit of dipping his head low. That's a recipe for getting hit with a big knee or uppercut which Millender alluded that he is going to do and because Millender's legs are super long and quick, he hits it so quick out of nowhere. Griffin was having trouble with Zaleski who was just as fast as him but was at a reach disadvantage. The Perry win was overrated, any good striker who will stick and move and avoid trading bombs will beat Perry. Griffin is essentially a 1-2 guy, nothing else. He is a boxer and doesn't throw leg kicks really.
The thing about betting Millender if it hits the scorecards, does he throw volume enough to warrant a decision.
i dont think so. millender is looking for the KO with the head kick or knees. i think griffin throws more volume and pushes forward which judges love. I do think millender is going to be a great fighter and has great spead and range well. i just noticed some flaws when he is pressured
So you give Pettis total 40% chance to win but you're willing to bet him at -115 or better?
I like reading your breakdowns but I don't get the logic behind the above.
ya you are right, calculation error, at first i had it closer to even, but rethought about it and ended with chiesa around -150, forgot to change the odds
I like the write ups and percentages Electricute. This will be one of my largest betting cards but I usually wait until close to the fight to bet.
I have Cormier and Miocic at 55/45 favoring Cormier and put $300 on Cormier as a +240 dog. Even though he hasn’t had a large amount of takedowns in his recent fights, the takedowns he gets are highly efficient (I.e really works the opponent and wears out the opponent). I think Miocic can and will get taken down and burn a ton of energy. My major concern is an early knockout as he is facing a taller opponent and will have to take big risks going for the tie up (similar to when he last fought Jones and got caught when committing from distance).
One variable I think your wrong is Cormier’s weight, I think there is a good chance he weighs in around 245 and comes in heavier than Miocic. Chael Sonnen is also predicting this and you will see a big shift in lines if this is true. Around fight time I see Cormier closing at around +140.
ya i saw the same interview saying that cormier is gaurenteed to come in at 237 at least. from all the interviews and videos of him i've seen he looks like a big boy. you are right in that we haven't really seen miocic fight off his back and don't know what his ground game is. i just dont think cormier can land that takedown consistently. on the taller miocic, he wont be able to get double underhooks against the cage and will also have to shoot single legs rather than doubles.i'm likely going to take the free money on cormier (got stipe at -175) and then bet fight to go decision