UFC 226

[Ryan Kelly]

I have lost a fuckload fading Ortega. That’s likely irreparably damaged my objectivity, but i think he’s gotten quite lucky during his ascension and frankly I just don’t believe in him yet. Max at -135 gives me that warm feeling when I love both the price and the fighter. Those fights against Aldo were eye opening. I see him overwhelming T-city on the feet. Had a couple of units on him at -150 and added a couple more at -135 bc I cant help myself. Accordingly, Ortega sub is obv incoming. I will have lost a hilarious amount of units betting against Ortega if that goes down.

 

[electricute]

here we go again!

http://piglordmma.com/2018/07/02/ufc-226-betting-predictions/

nice write ups.

i have pretty much the same thoughts on griffin, burns and lando. taking props on both holloway and ortega.

 

[electricute]

hey @Sadistics can you tell me if williamhill and 5dimes allow online betting for canadian customers?

i just signed up for William Hill, and yes they do allow canadians. however their MMA lines are pretty bad. I've tried getting money into 5dimes and it's just a mess, but they also allow canadians.

 

[electricute]

Yes and yes. Canada is one of the best places to live as an online gambler, pretty much every book listed on BFO is available to Canadians as well as many smaller ones that occasionally open ridiculous lines such as Ohmbet or Betsafe. We have the luxury of openers (mainly 5dimes), in round livebetting (365, Ohmbet, more), and long term solutions once you run out of people to make secondary accounts for you at the aforementioned books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker). The only thing we're missing are exchanges which left Canada a few years ago.

i've been looking for an exchange. are you saying there are non available for canadians?

i've been limited on Bet365, and now Betway, running out of options

 

[MacPherson911]

Stipe is overrated as a result of a very poor HW division.

elaborate please...

 

[Gugabe]

elaborate please...

I think that's a fair statement. A guy with Miocic's skillset'd struggle to be top 15 at LW, but the same goes for DC. I just think Miocic's power, combined with DC's shitty striking defense, means that DC goes out quick.

 

[raketmannen]

-135 is surely the lowest Max will be right? crazy movement on this line. +150 value was on Ortega, now value is on Max. I’ve been contemplating what bet to make on this fight for weeks. Fuuuck

If Max looks even worse than usual on the scales or some information about his weight cut going bad I could see more money come in on Ortega

I think Max might actually miss weight for the first time

 

[Roads55]

i've been looking for an exchange. are you saying there are non available for canadians?

i've been limited on Bet365, and now Betway, running out of options

almost certain Canadians can't get on the exchanges

 

[edole]

elaborate please...

Stipe has been able to exploit a very old and worn down HW division.

Look at his last 8 fights aside from Ngannou:
JDS, Werdum, Overeem, Arlovski, Hunt, Gonzaga, Fabio Maldonado, Roy Nelson.

Cormier is competing with athletes in their prime: JBJ, Rumble, Gus etc.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Stipe has been able to exploit a very old and worn down HW division.

Look at his last 8 fights aside from Ngannou:
JDS, Werdum, Overeem, Arlovski, Hunt, Gonzaga, Fabio Maldonado, Roy Nelson.

Cormier is competing with athletes in their prime: JBJ, Rumble, Gus etc.

yep, you are right ! Im on Cormier too, he will take Stipe down and MAYBE even make it look easy

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

What on earth does unit size have to do with anything? You can have 1$ units, or even not bet at all, but have the ability to beat the market.

That being said, anyone with a working brain can beat MMA lines on soft sites. If you can bet on 365 and arent printing money, you're doing something really wrong. Only MMA tipping service I'd give a shit about would be one that 1. only tips on sites that dont limit you (pinny etc.), 2. all tips into >1000$ limits and 3. has a record of several hundred bets.

True. Lots of tipsters have inflated records from using slow moving lines. Also tipping openers which has next to 0 usefulness inflates records further. A service like you describe is far more useful . I mean someone who doesn't even watch mma should have 15% roi just tipping slow moving lines at books ( these books tend to limit quick and have low limits). Waiting for lines to be widely available and sticking to a good book (say pinnacle) would get much more respect. Using 1 book would stop the auto profit from betting slow lines( basically tipping one side of an arb you can't lose long term)

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Yeah. There's definitely a lot more slack in the MMA markets than there is in sports like NBA, but I think it's trivializing long-term profitability a bit to say that anybody could do it.

Anyone can do it if they tip the slow moving lines. Which a lot do. Problem for good tipsters is there record looks inferior if they dont

 

[Sadistics]

i've been looking for an exchange. are you saying there are non available for canadians?

i've been limited on Bet365, and now Betway, running out of options

Correct, no exchanges are available to Canadians at the moment. Sign up at Pinnacle, they have a policy of never limiting anyone.

 

[electricute]

Stipe has been able to exploit a very old and worn down HW division.

Look at his last 8 fights aside from Ngannou:
JDS, Werdum, Overeem, Arlovski, Hunt, Gonzaga, Fabio Maldonado, Roy Nelson.

Cormier is competing with athletes in their prime: JBJ, Rumble, Gus etc.

if stipe wins, people will still say the same thing. that cormier was old and well past his prime. he was 40 years old and never the same.

what do you want from stipe. the heavyweight division is so shallow who else is he supposed to fight?

 

[electricute]

Correct, no exchanges are available to Canadians at the moment. Sign up at Pinnacle, they have a policy of never limiting anyone.

main book is pinnacle, with bodog on the side, and now some william hill. but william hill can't come close to the lines that pinnacle offers.

however, pinnacle doesn't limit anyone but does have a $300 max bet on their props

 

[Sadistics]

main book is pinnacle, with bodog on the side, and now some william hill. but william hill can't come close to the lines that pinnacle offers.

however, pinnacle doesn't limit anyone but does have a $300 max bet on their props

On openers yes but closer to the event you can get down quite a bit. Current limit on the Holloway/Ortega o3.5 is $3085. Once you max them they only move about 2 points then you can max it again

 

[wack3d]

If Max looks even worse than usual on the scales or some information about his weight cut going bad I could see more money come in on Ortega

I think Max might actually miss weight for the first time

why do you think he would miss weight? i would be shocked if that happens.. he never missed weight before and this is his career defining fight coming up

 

[Stunna77]

Felder was badly rocked at the end of the Saggo fight and was likely saved by the bell. Also, Barboza didn’t land any clean head kicks on him. He did a lot of damage to Felder’s body though.

Perry is going to be the hardest hitter Felder’s ever faced and it’s not particularly close IMO.

Couldn't remember any fights where Felder had been remotely hurt. Thanks for the spot, will rewatch that fight.

 

[mkess101]

Couldn't remember any fights where Felder had been remotely hurt. Thanks for the spot, will rewatch that fight.

It was a big knee that landed flush. Felder's first UFC fight, I'd honestly forgotten about it. The fact that Felder didn't go out is actually a bit surprising. A lot of guys are done when that lands.

 

[chemmy]

On openers yes but closer to the event you can get down quite a bit. Current limit on the Holloway/Ortega o3.5 is $3085. Once you max them they only move about 2 points then you can max it again

I noticed that they started offering some last-minute main card props for certain cards a few months back also. Some decision, inside the distance, by sub, by KO etc... lines that they never had before.