UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[Wiktoruspro]

I'm considering betting on either Lewis or Brunson. Does anyone have an opinion on which is the better underdog for me to put some money on? How much of a puncher's chance do you think Lewis has? Is Adesanya definitely the real deal? Can Brunson either catch a brawling KO, or maybe implements a wrestling strategy for the decision win? I feel like there's some value in taking a chance with 1 of those dogs, but someone help me decide which 1...

Bet BB he might get lucky again, Israel will win his fight.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Was pretty big on Holobaugh his last fight out, even had him in a parlay or two. Got my ass burnt pretty good, lol.

He talked a lot about making big improvements after that IV related layoff but that's not how it looked come fight night... He was very easy to hit and was outstruck and stopped by a guy who didn't enter the fight with any kind of reputation as a striker...

 

[ViolenceFight]

Bet BB he might get lucky again, Israel will win his fight.

So you think Israel is definitely the real deal? I imagined Brunson has a decent chance, & possibly a few different ways he could win. Is Adesanya’s striking that much better? How does he do on the ground or off his back?

 

[raketmannen]

So you think Israel is definitely the real deal? I imagined Brunson has a decent chance, & possibly a few different ways he could win. Is Adesanya’s striking that much better? How does he do on the ground or off his back?

Adesanyas striking is in another galaxy compared to Brunson, chin is straight up, when he goes forward he leads with his head and his whole body is being dragged behind it, he only gets by on his hand speed and explosive power

 

[Danis_champ]

I'm considering betting on either Lewis or Brunson. Does anyone have an opinion on which is the better underdog for me to put some money on?

Is this really a question lol? Of course Brunson is more likely to win. He can wrestle and I think he can put Adesanya on his back. I know about his striking but if he approaches this fight with a brain he might have bigger chance than odds reflect. Brunson is much more athletic and stronger than Tavares plus he hits like a truck despite his shitty technique. Lewis will be pushed against the fence taken down and quickly subbed imo. Since Cormiers hand is hurt I doubt he does much gnp or wants to fight on the feet I think he tries to choke Lewis like he did with Rumble. Cormier won't play around. Lewis won't get lucky this time. Lewis does not do any setups or feints like Jones did and fooled Cormier into his high kick. Lewis has explosive right hand and thats all.

 

[raketmannen]

Is this really a question lol? Of course Brunson is more likely to win. He can wrestle and I think he can put Adesanya on his back. I know about his striking but if he approaches this fight with a brain he might have bigger chance than odds reflect. Brunson is much more athletic and stronger than Tavares plus he hits like a truck despite his shitty technique. Lewis will be pushed against the fence taken down and quickly subbed imo. Since Cormiers hand is hurt I doubt he does much gnp or wants to fight on the feet I think he tries to choke Lewis like he did with Rumble. Cormier won't play around. Lewis won't get lucky this time. Lewis does not do any setups or feints like Jones did and fooled Cormier into his high kick. Lewis has explosive right hand and thats all.

Volkan landed against Cormier, he was winning the first minutes of that fight and tagged DC up a bit without too many setups. DC is a good all around fighter but his striking defense is probably what he's worst at, he leans his head back and flails with his arms in front of him. Brunson on the other hand is facing someone with elite striking defense, and Adesanya showed extreme improvements with the TDD and overall grappling against Tavares compared to his fight against Wilkinson during a really short timespan. I think we will see even more rapid improvements in this fight. That said Brunson has a chance to knock anyone out and he could outwrestle him also, but I don't think it will happen

 

[Danis_champ]

Volkan landed against Cormier, he was winning the first minutes of that fight and tagged DC up a bit without too many setups. DC is a good all around fighter but his striking defense is probably what he's worst at, he leans his head back and flails with his arms in front of him. Brunson on the other hand is facing someone with elite striking defense, and Adesanya showed extreme improvements with the TDD and overall grappling against Tavares compared to his fight against Wilkinson during a really short timespan. I think we will see even more rapid improvements in this fight. That said Brunson has a chance to knock anyone out and he could outwrestle him also, but I don't think it will happen

Are we really comparing Volkan's and Derrick's stand up game. If these two fought i would highly favor Volkan. Derrick is so basic nothing that Cormier has no seen before. KO is very very unlikely imo.

Wasn't Tavares injured and fucked up going into that fight? As I said Brunson is much stronger than Tavares. Israel got away from some bad spots with his athleticism. Brunson is a diffrent animal. Don't get me wrong I'm favoring Israel too but he is much more likely to lose than Cormier

 

[piglord]

Was pretty big on Holobaugh his last fight out, even had him in a parlay or two. Got my ass burnt pretty good, lol.

He talked a lot about making big improvements after that IV related layoff but that's not how it looked come fight night... He was very easy to hit and was outstruck and stopped by a guy who didn't enter the fight with any kind of reputation as a striker...

that brazilian dude looked pretty damn legit to me. i wouldn't write off kurt just yet.

 

[ViolenceFight]

Is this really a question lol? Of course Brunson is more likely to win. He can wrestle and I think he can put Adesanya on his back. I know about his striking but if he approaches this fight with a brain he might have bigger chance than odds reflect. Brunson is much more athletic and stronger than Tavares plus he hits like a truck despite his shitty technique. Lewis will be pushed against the fence taken down and quickly subbed imo. Since Cormiers hand is hurt I doubt he does much gnp or wants to fight on the feet I think he tries to choke Lewis like he did with Rumble. Cormier won't play around. Lewis won't get lucky this time. Lewis does not do any setups or feints like Jones did and fooled Cormier into his high kick. Lewis has explosive right hand and thats all.

I’m tending to agree. It may be fun to bet on BB, but his chances are slim to none. Whereas I can see Brunson having a much better shot of winning. I’m not sold on Adesanya’s elite MMA striking quite yet, & I don’t know if he even had much of a ground game.

 

[FightGameTheory]

I’m tending to agree. It may be fun to bet on BB, but his chances are slim to none. Whereas I can see Brunson having a much better shot of winning. I’m not sold on Adesanya’s elite MMA striking quite yet, & I don’t know if he even had much of a ground game.

We’re dealing with a bit of a false choice here in general. Neither guy is very likely to win. Sure Brunson is probably slightly more likely, but you’d be better off betting on both favorites in these matchups imo. Cormier Lewis is a squash match, and if Israel’s improvements he showed in the Tavares fight were for real (and I have no reason to doubt they are) then that’s a very lopsided matchup as well, just in a different manner.

 

[ill800]

Right now i think Brunson at +290 has the best value of the card

 

[Stunna77]

I'm considering betting on either Lewis or Brunson. Does anyone have an opinion on which is the better underdog for me to put some money on? How much of a puncher's chance do you think Lewis has? Is Adesanya definitely the real deal? Can Brunson either catch a brawling KO, or maybe implements a wrestling strategy for the decision win? I feel like there's some value in taking a chance with 1 of those dogs, but someone help me decide which 1...

Brunson and its not close...

 

[2bet]

Joe Rogan on his podcast:
"I think if DC got his diet in order he could be a 185er"
I believe he forgot to take his alpha brain pills that day

 

[LiquidNuke]

Joe Rogan on his podcast:
"I think if DC got his diet in order he could be a 185er"
I believe he forgot to take his alpha brain pills that day

I still can't believe that Joe Rogan of all people has a very large group of people that listen to his musings and basically every other brain fart on the daily... I don't get it and still don't get the appeal.

 

[Stunna77]

Had a little scare with 5dimes, long story short, be very careful about hitting openers if there is any chance it is a reversed line. They consider hitting "bad" lines theft, and reserve the right to confiscate your funds.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I still can't believe that Joe Rogan of all people has a very large group of people that listen to his musings and basically every other brain fart on the daily... I don't get it and still don't get the appeal.

JRE is a great, great way to find out about things and people you probably normally wouldn't find on your own - Paul Stamets, Graham Hancock & Randall Carlson, Rhonda Patrick, Eric Schlosser, Michael Shermer - some of my favs that come to mind. Rogan is a good conversationalist and he is good at getting out of the way letting the guest talk.

His stand-up 'comedy', however; I will never understand the draw there.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Had a little scare with 5dimes, long story short, be very careful about hitting openers if there is any chance it is a reversed line. They consider hitting "bad" lines theft, and reserve the right to confiscate your funds.

Scary dude. I hit Ponz +160 opener that was a mistake and I got all kind of notifications about it lol.

 

[ill800]

Had a little scare with 5dimes, long story short, be very careful about hitting openers if there is any chance it is a reversed line. They consider hitting "bad" lines theft, and reserve the right to confiscate your funds.

Wow. That’s ridiculous. At the end of the day it’s their liability. It’s not my fault they opened magny as a favorite. How am I supposed to know what their mistakes are?

It’s our job as bettors to exploit their bad lines

They had the under first five for Boston set at 3 for -130 today. I hit that and then paid for Boston team total over 3 -160

I knew I had to take the risk of losing juice on that

They changed the first five under 3 to 2 after I hit it

Both of them hit and I played both lines big

Oops we messed up, we’re canceling your bet and keeping your money?

I guess that’s the risk you take with offshore online books

 

[zeckdo]

JRE is a great, great way to find out about things and people you probably normally wouldn't find on your own - Paul Stamets, Graham Hancock & Randall Carlson, Rhonda Patrick, Eric Schlosser, Michael Shermer - some of my favs that come to mind. Rogan is a good conversationalist and he is good at getting out of the way letting the guest talk.

His stand-up 'comedy', however; I will never understand the draw there.

I think he's kind of a broken record on the podcast, his guests are great though, and he asks good questions. He knows a lot about old school MMA, but nowadays he probably watches 200/520 UFC fights a year, doesn't know that much about current MMA. I think his stand up is hilarious. pretty much all of his specials are funny, this is my favorite bit.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

He knows a lot about old school MMA,

Eh, to a point. Rogan definitely knows way more about it than most people, but for the really hardcore old-school fans, his knowledge is lacking. Also, whether due to the marijuana, age, or just so many different things on his mind, Rogan doesn't always remember the fights he himself called.

On Youtube for instance, ThePinkMan and Old School Combat MMA are way more knowledgeable, in addition to a number of random fans.

I generally like Joe Rogan, though. Seems like a decent, honest guy who presents some very interesting shows and guests on occasion. As a color commentator, I have always thought he was quite good, if not great or my absolute favorite.