UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

GrantSorenson said:
I think Millender is a level or two above as a striker to say the least. He has a much more diverse arsenal. He will have the height and reach and should be prepared for Siyar who is pretty predictable. Siyar is older and inactive and was getting lit up a bit by Thatch. I don't see how he can be favoured on the feet here. I think he gets pieced up. Regarding the ground, Millender does look vulnerable there but Siyar doesn't really look like a takedown artist. He's older, had a few injuries and surgeries, been inactive overall. I think Millender starts to dominate the fight the longer it goes on. I think he has the better gas tank. I'm pretty confident in Millender here.
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I agree, the only thing that is very concerning about milender was his first round vs Griffin, he looked absolutely clueless on the ground, I hope his groundwork has improved a bit, but I am placing a large bet on Milender at current odds and will add more if the price climbs.
 
Broe. said:
I agree, the only thing that is very concerning about milender was his first round vs Griffin, he looked absolutely clueless on the ground, I hope his groundwork has improved a bit, but I am placing a large bet on Milender at current odds and will add more if the price climbs.
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He didnt look good but he did limit the damage he took. He showed pretty good tdd in the 2nd and third and he throws nasty knees which will be dangerous for siyar if he goes for takedowns. Griffin came out in the 2nd thinking this will be easy I'll just take him down but he took a clean knee or two while trying and didn't want to risk it too much after that. I can really see siyar taking knees here for sure. In my opinion, griffin is better than siyar.

Millender overall has decent tdd and is dangerous even when you try to take him down so I'm not too worried about him getting wrestle fucked in this. It will be a concern against better wrestlers though. Plus he'll have worked on that since the last fight so he should be a bit better.

And I'll be real surprised if millender gets ko'd standing.
 
More things that pop out to me, feel free to attaq if wanted

Jackson/ kellelher over 2.5 rounds -200
(Possibly hedge with a kellelher sub)

Uriah Hall -115
Feel like he should be at least -150 here

Yan-270
Should have massive technical standup advantage here


Walt harris-170
This is more just fading arlovski at this point

Zangano/ Anderson over 2.5 -200
I see this being a boring lay and pray decision going to zangano

Mendez -150
Would like to see odds improve before pulling trigger, but don’t see how Volk has an advantage here

Cyborg -250
More or less same as ^
Still don’t respect Nunes, prolly never will
 
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It sucks if other fighters have been screwed over had their careers damaged when they were innocent but it seems like everyone just wants to send Jones go down the same path in the name of all being equal regardless of whether its right or wrong. If equality means screwing over more fighters needlessly then I don't see how that can be supported.
 
Xuh said:
¿Is Ohmbet becoming available to UK users in the New Year?
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yes dude, will post a thread about it for the uk launch - will try and arrange some kind of special bonus for all the users here as i know a lot of people will want to sign up.
 
GrantSorenson said:
I think Millender is a level or two above as a striker to say the least. He has a much more diverse arsenal. He will have the height and reach and should be prepared for Siyar who is pretty predictable. Siyar is older and inactive and was getting lit up a bit by Thatch. I don't see how he can be favoured on the feet here. I think he gets pieced up. Regarding the ground, Millender does look vulnerable there but Siyar doesn't really look like a takedown artist. He's older, had a few injuries and surgeries, been inactive overall. I think Millender starts to dominate the fight the longer it goes on. I think he has the better gas tank. I'm pretty confident in Millender here.
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Just finished watching tape on Siyar/Millender.

Siyar has definitely slowed down since the Thatch fighter, he is essentially a fighter that will stand in front of you and brawl with you. He trusts his chin and his technique isn't good but he has natural power. His striking is sloppy. He is essentially banking on landing his wild hooks to win in a standup fight.

Millender is a very skilled rhythm fighter that knows how to use his length, range and distance and has an arsenal of weapons to use. Millender has a 76' inch reach but his long arms makes his length seem even longer. Thiago Alves is a very skilled standup fighter but he couldn't get inside the reach of Millender because of how well he controls range. Max Griffin is very quick and has a great stick and move game which initially gave Millender trouble but if you plan to fight at range with Millender you are going to have a lot of problems which I think Siyar will if he can't knock Millender out and Siyar is very stationary at this point.

Standing up, here are the two key points to the fight imo. This is where I think most of the fight plays out.

1. (Counter striking) Millender will throw one strike, whether it's a jab, straight cross or hook and draw out a punch from you and he is really skilled at countering that punch by slipping and countering with a straight right or head kick. Watch how low Siyar's hand's are after he throws something and resets, they drop close to his waist. Millender is going to have a field day countering Siyar and will land something really flush.

2. (Clinch work) If Siyar's gets tied up in the clinch, he will be in trouble with Millender who is really tall and long and will have leverage to pull Siyar's head down for a big knee. Siyar tries and punches his way out of it which won't work (improper technique, i.e Rich Franklin against Anderson Silva) against a very skilled striker in the clinch who will have length and leverage.
 
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does ohmbet have livebetting, and is it available in the Netherlands?
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
I would rather avoid this fight all together and focus on other fighters that could give you more advantages. "Petr Yan" or Cyborg for that matter.
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Im more confident in jon than yan tbh. Cyborg + jones parlay is nice
 
Broe. said:
does ohmbet have livebetting, and is it available in the Netherlands?
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unfortunately not available in the netherlands but if you want some other live betting sites i can hook you up just shoot a dm
 
MT6ix said:
Just finished watching tape on Siyar/Millender.

Siyar has definitely slowed down since the Thatch fighter, he is essentially a fighter that will stand in front of you and brawl with you. He trusts his chin and his technique isn't good but he has natural power. His striking is sloppy. He is essentially banking on landing his wild hooks to win in a standup fight.

Millender is a very skilled rhythm fighter that knows how to use his length, range and distance and has an arsenal of weapons to use. Millender has a 76' inch reach but his long arms makes his length seem even longer. Thiago Alves is a very skilled standup fighter but he couldn't get inside the reach of Millender because of how well he controls range. Max Griffin is very quick and has a great stick and move game which initially gave Millender trouble but if you plan to fight at range with Millender you are going to have a lot of problems which I think Siyar will if he can't knock Millender out and Siyar is very stationary at this point.

Standing up, here are the two key points to the fight. This is where I think most of the fight plays out.

1. (Counter striking) Millender with throw one strike, whether it's a jab, straight cross or hook and draw out a punch from you and he is really skilled at countering that punch by slipping and countering with a straight right or head kick. Watch how low Siyar's hand's are after he throws something and resets, they drop close to his waist. Millender is going to have a field day countering Siyar and will land something really flush.

2. (Clinch work) If Siyar's gets tied up in the clinch, he will be in trouble with Millender who is really tall and long and will have leverage to pull Siyar's head down for a big knee. Siyar tries and punches his way out of it which won't work (improper technique, i.e Rich Franklin against Anderson Silva) against a very skilled striker in the clinch who will have length and leverage.
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Millender could also time counter knees if siyar comes in. Siyar is quite patient and looks for his kick or overhand but millender should give him a lot to think about in the meantime. Siyar seems too slow and predictable and I thought thatch hurt him. The more I watch, the easier it looks for millender and I see him stopping siyar actually
 
Walt Harris V Arlovski - I dont like to play heavyweight favorites but i also like money so i cant help myself with Harris -153. Originally i was planning on going very large with this because of the different career arcs at play here, but after tape came away a bit underwhelmed by Harris' striking volume. Arlovski has pretty good volume for a heavyweight. That being said i think Arlovski is pretty shop worn and gets kod here pretty often, while harris seems to be defensively pretty sound and the MUCH better athlete. Hard to evaluate his chin, he was only finished by strikes once against krylov with a head kick. My questions revolve around arlovskis defense against south paw body kicks. Harris is very athletic and adding that kick to his arsenal will serve him very well. Im also curious about the clinch game here. I dont think arlovski will want to stand at range at all, and needs to close the distance to get into his striking range. As is i put 3.5 U at -153 and if the price got better would go more. Anyone here favor arlovski or have good info on how he will do in the clinch against walt or if he is specifically weak against south paw striking/leg kicks or relevant camp info?
 
I still believe in Jon and will show my support by betting HEAVY on him (and his steroids). Win or lose, I forgive Jon.
 
Happy Holidays to all
Hey my dudes, Barry here. Been a minute since I last posted.
First and foremost I want to apologize to the mods for going political. Some may or may not know I've been dealing with severely debilitating bouts of depression. It's no F'in joke and I'm talking to mental health counselors which is a step in the right direction. I'm still the target of anonymous Sherdog trolls who are sending me absolutely nasty DM's. As one of the original OG's of this subforum I want to say it's been pretty cool to see how this place has grown.

I know there's a legion of Barry followers who have my back so I just wanted to check in with ya'll. Last card of the year means I will post my plays for those who want to make money.
Made a pretty penny this year handicapping all sports. I've set up a MMA betting system that is incredible at identifying massive value spots.

New Year Resolution for 2019: Find my soul mate aka girlfriend

Gonna drink some eggnog and watch some basketball

Yours truly,

- Barry
 
barrygood1 said:
Happy Holidays to all
Hey my dudes, Barry here. Been a minute since I last posted.
First and foremost I want to apologize to the mods for going political. Some may or may not know I've been dealing with severely debilitating bouts of depression. It's no F'in joke and I'm talking to mental health counselors which is a step in the right direction. I'm still the target of anonymous Sherdog trolls who are sending me absolutely nasty DM's. As one of the original OG's of this subforum I want to say it's been pretty cool to see how this place has grown.

I know there's a legion of Barry followers who have my back so I just wanted to check in with ya'll. Last card of the year means I will post my plays for those who want to make money.
Made a pretty penny this year handicapping all sports. I've set up a MMA betting system that is incredible at identifying massive value spots.

New Year Resolution for 2019: Find my soul mate aka girlfriend

Gonna drink some eggnog and watch some basketball

Yours truly,

- Barry
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@mkess101 I knew he wasnt dead yet.
 
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