UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, November 11

[Stat_Collector]

I think sometimes there's also a tendency for guys to be a bit sloppier than normal if they don't feel as threatened by an opponent's power. At HW less so I guess, but sometimes there's sharper defense shown vs an opponent they know has massive power. I think Sergei's entries into the pocket get wild more often than not and Tom has the speed and countering ability to find his chin.

that's a good point.

BUT

I have one thing that Sergei does better than Tom. And that is that Sergei beats good fighters in their strength and not their weaknesses.

Tom outs strikes the grapplers and taps out the strikers. Whereas Sergei beat Tai and Lewis in their own game, and even Curtis is a solid striker. All these guys getting stopped in rnd 1 is impressive to me more so than koing chinney Tybura and submitting average bjj Volkov. or even the Arlovski fight. Looks like he got tagged a few times and opted for the ground better.

Sergei is a sambo guy, if Tom can't take him down , he is going to have to beat Sergei in his main area which is striking.

 

[mkess101]

that's a good point.

BUT

I have one thing that Sergei does better than Tom. And that is that Sergei beats good fighters in their strength and not their weaknesses.

Tom outs strikes the grapplers and taps out the strikers. Whereas Sergei beat Tai and Lewis in their own game, and even Curtis is a solid striker. All these guys getting stopped in rnd 1 is impressive to me more so than koing chinney Tybura and submitting average bjj Volkov. or even the Arlovski fight. Looks like he got tagged a few times and opted for the ground better.

Sergei is a sambo guy, if Tom can't take him down , he is going to have to beat Sergei in his main area which is striking.

Fair point. Although both Tai and Lewis have been stopped multiple times by strikes prior to Sergei doing it. That's not to say he's not a dangerous striker, he is of course. But those guys will obviously brawl in the pocket and take their chances. Tom is a different type striker. He uses angles and speed. He still has power, but it's not his main attribute like it is for guys like Sergei, Tai, and Derrick.

The way I see the fight playing out, I'm actually not sure that Tom will really get the chance to try to take Sergei down. I've yet to see Sergei show much patience. He comes in guns blazing and expects his power to carry him. And so far, it has. I have to assume he'll do the same thing he always does. Full bore, right at Tom. Which means either he finds Tom's chin, or gets countered and stopped. I think it's the latter. Sergei is clearly talented and a huge hitter, but he's not difficult to gameplan for. You know what you're getting. Most guys just don't have the speed, timing, and footwork to avoid his big punches and make him pay. I think Tom does, and will.

 

[Russ82]

People really like Pav over Aspinall?

Your're shocked people are backing Pav after 6 1st round KO's in a row?

 

[sonhow]

Your're shocked people are backing Pav after 6 1st round KO's in a row?

But the thing is if the first round ko wont come? Can he dig deeper?
Tbh we dont know about Tom in that regard either. Its a bit of a mystery fight.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Doesn't Ricci do everything better than Godinez? I like what I see in Ricci. I think she has top 5 ability, possibly even champ ability. I'm surprised she is the one I see at +130.

Godinez striking is nothing special. It may be slightly better than Ricci in the pocket thats it. I just like Ricci's athleticism here, and Ricci will be the better grappler. The way Ricci was able to shut down Robertson impressed me. I see Ricci frustrating Godinez here with her movement, and spamming a takedown or 2 en route to a decision.

I agree that Godinez striking is nothing special, I would say that it's descent. She has some power and she has some combinations. She is a bit low volume thought. However, I think Riccis stand-up is straight up bad. It's very erratic and jumpy with no finess to it. Compare the striking in the Godinez vs Ducote fight vs the striking in the Ricci vs Penne fight.
Godinez slowed down in that fight, but she has power and some technique, especially in R1... Ricci looks very uncomfortable in the striking vs Penne.
I also think that Godinez can get Ricci down, but I don't think Ricci can get Godinez down. I think the wrestling discrepancy is to big, at least early in the fight.

Ricci could win on volume and spamming takedowns. Godinez has shown tendencies to slow down so It could be Godinez R1 and then Ricci takes R2 and R3, but I personally think Godinez got this one.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Sergei has a 6 inch reach advantage.

Sergei is skilled in Greco-roman wrestling and sambo. Tom has better Jiu-jitsu, but if sambo was easy, it would be called Jiu-jitsu.

Pavlovich def. Aspinall via KO (punches)
1 1:46 Performance of the Night

 

[Georges Hefner]

But the thing is if the first round ko wont come? Can he dig deeper?
Tbh we dont know about Tom in that regard either. Its a bit of a mystery fight.

Sergei went to a 25 minute 5 round decision in 2017, where his cardio looked phenomenal. His cardio is even better now

 

[mkess101]

Your're shocked people are backing Pav after 6 1st round KO's in a row?

Wouldn't say "shocked". I just think there's a speed advantage for Aspinall that maybe people aren't giving enough importance to.

 

[sonhow]

Sergei went to a 25 minute 5 round decision in 2017, where his cardio looked phenomenal. His cardio is even better now

Good to know.
He did get blasted by Reem gnp after that though so there are still some questions about his durabilty im a fight that is not going his way.

 

[mkess101]

Sergei has a 6 inch reach advantage.

Sergei is skilled in Greco-roman wrestling and sambo. Tom has better Jiu-jitsu, but if sambo was easy, it would be called Jiu-jitsu.

Pavlovich def. Aspinall via KO (punches)
1 1:46 Performance of the Night

Sergei doesn't really use his reach with the wide, winging shots he throws. He'll mix in straight punches here and there but reach isn't as important with a guy throwing huge power hooks trying to take his opponent's head off.
I'm gonna be on doesn't start rd 2 as well so Sergei winning that early will be okay. But I think Tom actually counters and gets the first round finish.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Sergei doesn't really use his reach with the wide, winging shots he throws. He'll mix in straight punches here and there but reach isn't as important with a guy throwing huge power hooks trying to take his opponent's head off.
I'm gonna be on doesn't start rd 2 as well so Sergei winning that early will be okay. But I think Tom actually counters and gets the first round finish.

Sergei has a granite chin and tucks his chin in striking exchanges. Tom doesn’t , look here. Andrei landed some good shots

 

[mkess101]

Sergei has a granite chin and tucks his chin in striking exchanges. Tom doesn’t , look here. Andrei landed some good shots
View attachment 1010647

Yeah @Stat_Collector mentioned that. It could be a factor but I really don't think Tom respected Andre's power the way he will Sergei. And even old Andre uses feints and sets things up better than Sergei. Difference obviously is that Sergei only needs to find the mark once.
Sergei did get blasted by Overeem so it's not like if he's hit he can't be hurt.

 

[magpie878]

Sergei went to a 25 minute 5 round decision in 2017, where his cardio looked phenomenal. His cardio is even better now

There is ZERO way to know if it's any better now.

 

[Guld]

ha? Jiri held his own grappling with glover? I remember him getting his face smashed up across multiple rounds on the bottom and then landing a RNC with no hooks in when glover was beyond exhaustion, when a loss via UD was looming. Where did that come from?

I decided to give it a rewatch, because it has been a while since I watched it, and it was a fantastic fight worthy of a rewatch anyway.
Glover had/has some of the best top game in all of LHW, so that's a major factor to be considered.
Jiri managed to survive for 5 rounds without getting stopped due to GNP or Submission.
In addition to just "surviving" those positions he was able to stuff 12 takedown attempts (Glover was 5/17), and provide 4 reversals. Jiri also ended up with 4:29 of control time vs Glover's 9:47. Both landed some heavy GnP and Sub attempts during the ground time. So yes, Jiri was on the receiving end of some bad positions and GNP, but he stayed composed and made sure to reverse/escape/tough it out to the bell when needed.
And ultimately he was the one who got the sub victory, which is no easy feat on Glover. If you want to say it was because Glover was tired, so was Jiri, and Glover wasn't able to stop him earlier in that round (even after rocking him badly) so I kinda consider that an invalid excuse.
I'm not necessarily saying that Jiri is better than Glover on the ground, I'm just pointing out that he was able to survive + reverse + get the win over arguably the most talented grappler in the division, and most of the division wouldn't have made it to the end of the first round if they were in a similar fight.

EDIT: BTW, fantastic fight and definitely appreciated the rewatch. Great display of skill, power, and determination from both.

 

[Trupsi]

I decided to give it a rewatch, because it has been a while since I watched it, and it was a fantastic fight worthy of a rewatch anyway.
Glover had/has some of the best top game in all of LHW, so that's a major factor to be considered.
Jiri managed to survive for 5 rounds without getting stopped due to GNP or Submission.
In addition to just "surviving" those positions he was able to stuff 12 takedown attempts (Glover was 5/17), and provide 4 reversals. Jiri also ended up with 4:29 of control time vs Glover's 9:47. Both landed some heavy GnP and Sub attempts during the ground time. So yes, Jiri was on the receiving end of some bad positions and GNP, but he stayed composed and made sure to reverse/escape/tough it out to the bell when needed.
And ultimately he was the one who got the sub victory, which is no easy feat on Glover. If you want to say it was because Glover was tired, so was Jiri, and Glover wasn't able to stop him earlier in that round (even after rocking him badly) so I kinda consider that an invalid excuse.
I'm not necessarily saying that Jiri is better than Glover on the ground, I'm just pointing out that he was able to survive + reverse + get the win over arguably the most talented grappler in the division, and most of the division wouldn't have made it to the end of the first round if they were in a similar fight.

EDIT: BTW, fantastic fight and definitely appreciated the rewatch. Great display of skill, power, and determination from both.

I agree with everything you said but it's mostly defensive grappling. Will he initiate grappling versus Alex, will he shoot takedowns ?
I don't remember him scoring any TD in his 3 UFC fights, so is he going to just strike or try to take Alex down where he's not at his best ?

 

[BigSteve]

Doesn't Ricci do everything better than Godinez? I like what I see in Ricci. I think she has top 5 ability, possibly even champ ability. I'm surprised she is the one I see at +130.

Godinez striking is nothing special. It may be slightly better than Ricci in the pocket thats it. I just like Ricci's athleticism here, and Ricci will be the better grappler. The way Ricci was able to shut down Robertson impressed me. I see Ricci frustrating Godinez here with her movement, and spamming a takedown or 2 en route to a decision.

Damn this is a crazy take, no offense. Ricci is too small and harmless to ever sniff the title. The fact she keeps losing rounds to Oliveira, Viana, Gillian when she has the perfect fight for her style is all you need to know. She is serviceable at best.

 

[Guld]

I agree with everything you said but it's mostly defensive grappling. Will he initiate grappling versus Alex, will he shoot takedowns ?
I don't remember him scoring any TD in his 3 UFC fights, so is he going to just strike or try to take Alex down where he's not at his best ?

Yeah, he mostly used his grappling to avoid takedowns, mitigate damage, and reverse while on the ground. About the only offensive "takedown" he tried was when he lunged forward after Glover rocked him in the fifth. I don't even know if I'd describe it as a takedown, but it was a closing of the distance with his head low. Glover tried to slap on a guillotine and finish the match at that point, but he slipped off and Jiri ended up on top.
I'm not sure if Jiri will look to initiate the grappling, or if he even has takedowns in his arsenal, but my logic is that if it does turn into a clinch/on the ground/scramble then I feel pretty confident that he'll be the one surviving, reversing, and putting on sub attempts/landing more sig strikes. Or rather, I'm more confident in him to end up on the winning side over Alex.

Again, all of this may not even happen. The entire thing might play out on the feet. Jiri is hittable, and even though Alex isn't nearly the monster at LHW that he was at MW, he can still crack chins. Plus I don't know if the Jiri I saw fight Glover is still the same Jiri. For all I know his shoulder injury has transformed him into a different fighter. A lot of X factors in this one, hence why I just went with:
Striking: Either guy could put out the lights of the other. For every argument I can make for one side, I can counter it with the other.
X Factors: Alex recently KO'd, Jiri recently injured, Alex slower/less physical advantage at this weight category, Jiri easy to hit.
Grappling: Jiri should have a significant advantage in this category.
So when most factors are a coinflip, I gotta go with the only clear distinction and play the odds on that.

 

[Kenny95]

I'll come out and say it but tbh Aspinall, alex, and jiri shouldn't be fighting for belts. If you look at Aspinalls record in an unbias way, he hasnt had many fights in the UFC and the caliber of opponents were incredibly low, save for Volkov. But Aspinall is legit and he passes the eye test, so it is deserved but still.... Alex just got KOd then he only has 1 lukewarm decision win at LHW over 42 year old Jan where he gave up 8 minutes of control time in a 15 minute fight..... And jiri, despite being previous champ, has lots of question marks coming off major injury and I still haven't been able to find any recent training footage of him. And he only has 3 total wins in the UFC. All of the fights are good matchmaking, but I can't believe how shallow HW and LHW are where these are the best contenders they can find, while a division like WW is backed up so far no one really knows who is the best fighter of the division.

 

[EndlessCritic]

hate this card for betting. only value i currently see:

Andrade
Frevola
Sabatini
Ricci
Jiri

 

[Oblivian]

This is going to be a just bleed type card for me betting on a lot of ITD.