Fig/Cody - Figs ML is unplayable. Don't think his KO line is good either. I rate Fig quite highly, I think he's definitely a step up in quality for Cody compared to his last few years of match ups, but i don't think the concerns about Cody's chin are as relevant now as they were a few years ago. 3 and a half years now since he last got KOed, Fig does have power and can hurt Cody but I don't think it'd a guarantee. One thing I noticed in the Kelleher fight is that Cody didn't fight scared. He had a few fights after getting knocked out where he looked petrified of being hit (Munhoz fight being one of them iirc) and at this level you can't fight like that. Kelleher fight he looked more of Cody of old, ate a couple of clean shots which must be a huge mental boost.
I don't think the speed advantage will be as prominent as it usually is for Cody. The leg kicks Kelleher was landing too is a bit of a concern given Fig has better leg kicks.
I'm considering u2.5 @ 1.71. despite what I said, Fig does have power and I think will be aggressive. Similarly, I think Cody will be aggressive off the back of that Kelleher fight rather than his previous fighting scared. I could see either guy getting clipped in some big exchanges. Also considering Fig sub @ 5 - like I said, KO line is too short for me but he's got a solid guillotine and decent RNC, I don't think Fig is shooting takedowns and putting on a grappling clinic but I could see him getting a flash knockdown or hurting Cody and then jumping on a guillotine should the opportunity present itself.
Green/Miller - huge Miller fan, his reconnaissance has been great to watch and I'm happy he gets to fight on 300. That said, I think Green decision is the most likely outcome and it's pretty good odds at 2.5. millers wins have been against a step down in competition. Green has for a long time been durable, his last 3 losses being KOs is a concern and raises questions about his durability given Green himself is getting old. I think those 3 losses were also against a higher level of opposition than Jim though and should be taken into account. Green decision properly is the only way to play Bobby in my eyes - the SU odds aren't good enough and Jim hasn't lost his durability. I was mulling over Mullers props but I think a method of victory for him is a lot more difficult to predict given his sub prowess, his recent KOs/Greens chin issues and a decision isn't out of the realms of possibility. I think it's Green Dec @ 2.5 or Miller SU if he gets to 2.8-3.0 territory. Or just watch as a fan and hope Miller pulls it off.
Turned/Moicano - Moicano moving up to 155 was a great move for him. Think he was killing himself making 145 and it affected his durability. He's a talented grappler and the move up hasn't hurt that. Think he's in for a rough night though. Turner is very difficult to ground and I think Moicano is at a big disadvantage on the feet. I just don't think Moicano is going to be able to get his grappling going here. I think turner is able to fight long and punish Moicano anytime he attempts to get inside and eventually breaks him. If Moicano does manage to get inside, I think Turner can avoid being taken down more often than not. He might get grounded once or twice, but it'll take 3/4 attempts each time and I don't think he can keep him down for long, or there's any guarantee of him being able to get the back for a RNC. Think the odds are about right so no real bets, the KO line is too short but I think I like Turner SU to use in some doubles or trebles.
Holm/Harrison - not sure how she wins but Harrison takes it. Holm has become a grind against the cage wrestler as she's aged but she she can't do that here and I don't think her striking is at the level of was to win a stand up fight. I think Harrison does whatever she wants. Not touching this.
Kattar/Aljo - Think the move to 145 will be diminishing returns for Aljo. He's a great grappler with not great takedowns and he's not going to be the bigger guy in this or a lot of fights. I think Kattar stuffs almost every takedown and boxes him up - could KO him but likely decision. Kattar 2.4 SU is fine by me, I'd have taken him at pick em odds.
Jiri/Rakic - probably see how Jiri looks at the weigh in. An absolute war with Glover, serious injury then KOed by Alex, who knows how he looks. Rakic is good, don't think he does anything particularly world class though. I'd have much preferred to see Jiri Vs Ankalaev (would be on Ankalaev). If Jiri looks good at the weigh ins and ends up as a slight dog or better, I'll probably take him, or if his KO prop goes to 3.0.
Arman/Charles - great fight. Unfortunately the odds are bang on. I think this is Armans coming out fight for casuals against a big name. Love Charles and he's an opportunistic finisher but I think Arman is too slick and is getting the better of Charles wherever this fight goes. No bet but Arman decision or late KO after breaking Charles down.
Gaethje/Max - love them both, another great fight. Be interesting to see how Max looks on the scales, I think he's out on size the right way and it could be closer than expected. I'm expecting an absolute war, FotN and FotY contender. If Max looks good on the scales I might back him but most likely look at o2.5 @ 1.41. both guys can take unreal punishment. Decision props might be interesting but I think over is best, then just enjoy the war.
Alex/Hill - think Alex is playable at 1.70, definitely if that improves. Think this generally plays out on the feet, I think Hill is decent but not world class. Hill has a chip on his shoulder and I don't think will come out shooting takedowns and that will be to his detriment. I think Alex wins the striking exchanges and the finish comes in the second or third, it all depends on how reckless Hill gets.
