UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum - Discussion Thread

[Noel Wards]

I've bet Madsen as well. Great Greco wrestler. People talk about cardio. However, he went three exhaustive rounds with a broken jaw.

If he didn't slow down or look exhausted he isn't human. Hubbard isn't clay guida in that he's very very hard to keep down for the whole round.

His durability and heart is not in the question Hubbard was hitting him the broken jaw and he still won.

This is against the non finisher of the year who gave up a round to washed BJ Penn. I wouldn't even put a finish up as likely for mark.

He finished his first opponent when his jaw was fine and wasn't a slippery little bastard. He'll need one takedown each round to control him for the full 15 mins at worst.

 

['Suga Daddy']

I'll give him 70% chance. Look at who he has lost to and who he has beaten, he has the more impressive resume, and outside mma was an accomplished bjj and muy thai champ in brazil.

Just from knowing the matchup he’ll get exhausted from the pace and tied up in the scrambles

 

[Noel Wards]

Just from knowing the matchup he’ll get exhausted from the pace and tied up in the scrambles

He's only ever been tired when he was jaw has half hanging off. You are insane if you pigeonhole his cardio to that. And if you think clay has the scrambling Hubbard does.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

The only lock is Trevin Jones. Jones is in form, in his physical prime, powerful southpaw against a very green Mana Martinez

Trevins low output doesnt concern you?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Sure, but there's a huge difference in "X has great value" and "X is a lock". VERY few fights would ever warrant the word "lock" (among fights in the UFC that can be wagered on). Like, Valentina vs utterly and completely overmatched "contenders" maybe. Because she's literally eons better in every area of MMA and only a fluke injury would lead to her losing (vs KK for example). Or like Jon Jones in his prime vs an undersized Chael Sonnen. Chael didn't even have a puncher's chance, he was utterly overmatched in every facet of MMA (and oddly enough almost still won by the flukiest of injuries to Jones).

If someone thinks a -170 favorite is a "close toss up", they damn sure shouldn't be paying that juice. So that's not what I'm saying. I have Madsen -154 and Pantoja -160. I cap both around -200, so I like the value I got. But even in me capping them at -200 and feeling good about my bets, they are far far from "locks". I still give Guida and Royval roughly a 33% chance each to win. 2 in 3 isn't a "lock" by any means. Even if you cap them -300, that still leaves a 25% chance they lose. That's NOT statistically insignificant at all. You can still feel good about your bets and realize they aren't "locks".

Let me put it this way: Let's say in the next 6 months you have to bet your life on one UFC fight outcome. Only once, and you get to choose the fight. THAT is where you'd want the biggest "lock" you can find. And I guarantee you aren't betting Madsen or Pantoja here if forced to put your life on the line.

Fair play favorite picks of the night. there. in the end its semantics. I'm aware of the weird circumstances that surround the sport, but given Royvals arm injury, I see the freaky scenario happening to him over Pantoja.

its all relative to how much is at risk, i would not bet my life unless it was khabib / cm punk. But if im risking 600$ to get a return 440$ each saturday at a 67-70% chance hitting it , id play every saturday the same bet knowing id lose some and win most of the time.

Based on what ive seen and capped. Pantoja should win this 30-27, I dont think Royval wins a single round.

 

[mkess101]

Fair play favorite picks of the night. there. in the end its semantics. I'm aware of the weird circumstances that surround the sport, but given Royvals arm injury, I see the freaky scenario happening to him over Pantoja.

its all relative to how much is at risk, i would not bet my life unless it was khabib / cm punk. But if im risking 600$ to get a return 440$ each saturday at a 67-70% chance hitting it , id play every saturday the same bet knowing id lose some and win most of the time.

Based on what ive seen and capped. Pantoja should win this 30-27, I dont think Royval wins a single round.

That's fair. I think you're looking at it correctly, but your wording is just off.

 

['Suga Daddy']

He's only ever been tired when he was jaw has half hanging off. You are insane if you pigeonhole his cardio to that. And if you think clay has the scrambling Hubbard does.

Like I said genuinely a big fan of pantoja but I just think royval going to outpace him sadly

 

[Noel Wards]

Like I said genuinely a big fan of pantoja but I just think royval going to outpace him sadly

Nah man I was talking about mark Madsen.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Like I said genuinely a big fan of pantoja but I just think royval going to outpace him sadly

I urge you to watch Royval vs Elliot, despite the 2nd round finish, it was a competitive grappling match, then watch Askar/Pantoja, Askar has khabib level ground control and Pantoja not only scrambled back up but attacked tight submissions several times. Can honestly tell me what edge Royval has besides size? Most of these guys in the top ranks have good conditioning, and Pantoja has dealt with better grapplers and strikers than Royval in Davidson and Moreno(who he beat) Royval is a solid fighter but this is a massive step in competition since Moreno which he did not get enough cage time to suck some knowledge from. Sorry Pantoja is the more battle tested fighter, has more ufc experience and overall high opponent level victories, and imo is the more accomplished martial artist. Only some fluke spinning elbow strike could maybe be Royval's only chance. I think im being generous with 70% , its more 85% the more I watch their fights again.

 

[TrueAscension]

Anyone overlooking Royval is doing themselves a disservice.

 

[TrueAscension]

I urge you to watch Royval vs Elliot, despite the 2nd round finish, it was a competitive grappling match, then watch Askar/Pantoja, Askar has khabib level ground control and Pantoja not only scrambled back up but attacked tight submissions several times. Can honestly tell me what edge Royval has besides size? Most of these guys in the top ranks have good conditioning, and Pantoja has dealt with better grapplers and strikers than Royval in Davidson and Moreno(who he beat) Royval is a solid fighter but this is a massive step in competition since Moreno which he did not get enough cage time to suck some knowledge from. Sorry Pantoja is the more battle tested fighter, has more ufc experience and overall high opponent level victories, and imo is the more accomplished martial artist. Only some fluke spinning elbow strike could maybe be Royval's only chance. I think im being generous with 70% , its more 85% the more I watch their fights again.

Wikicap + MMA math = shitpost

 

[guesswhoseback]

Anyone overlooking Royval is doing themselves a disservice.

Well he is only 5'9 which is the avg height for an american Man so a lot of people probably will be overlooking him I got a good 1 inch on him

 

[guesswhoseback]

Wikicap + MMA math = shitpost

lol

 

[Stat_Collector]

or im wrong and royval slaps Pantoja.

 

[BigSteve]

Wikicap + MMA math = shitpost

he mentions 'go watch the Elliot fight' so he is obviously taping something lol.

 

[orgazmo]

I was on Royval in his last fight, but that shoulder injury is a red flag for me. I think he definitely has a very high ceiling, but I have to watch that shoulder of his, I feel like shoulder dislocations often become a recurring injury for a lot of people.

 

[Jordan3399]

Imagine comparing Askar to Khabib lol

 

[Stat_Collector]

Imagine comparing Askar to Khabib lol

He is the next khabib. More accomplished sambo fighter too.

 

[Oblivian]

Im actually considering cashing out my parlay early and taking the money and putting on safer fights in the pfl and on madson. Royvals size and southpaw stance has me worried that he could match Pantoja in significant strikes and squeeze out a split decision. While i do think Pantoja will likely win, im seeing potential for an upset. I think it’s better to just admit i was wrong about this one and put my attention elsewhere.

btw i always tape fights, i also do wiki research on top of that, i measure fighters in all aspects from technique to previous wins, exp etc.

I don't think your post was that far off honestly. I see Pantoja as being better everywhere. With that said, Royval's volume may be a concern. If he's on bottom as well and fishing for subs that aren't there, I think people still score that for the fighter on bottom often saying they are on the offensive.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't think your post was that far off honestly. I see Pantoja as being better everywhere. With that said, Royval's volume may be a concern. If he's on bottom as well and fishing for subs that aren't there, I think people still score that for the fighter on bottom often saying they are on the offensive.

Good point. Aggression from the bottom wins fights. and Royval use to fight at 135lb probably fights 20lb heavy. While Pantoja is a game bjj fighter his biggest threat is going to be controlling his emotions and not going into brawler mode,which he sometimes tends to do. Pantoja has a habit of taking a hit to get a hit and gets into these careless flurry exchanges. I do see Pantoja winning the kicking exchanges, wining the jab war but possibly getting pieced up with elbows and knees, possibly wobbled. Royvals biggest flaw is his hyper extension of unorthodox strikes and getting his back taken like in the Moreno fight. One thing is over looked about Pantoja is his bjj is pretty damn high level , I remember him going for a leg lock and then transition to a back mount against Askorov, those kind of reversals could spell trouble for a guy like Royval who is going to meet the highest level bjj practitioner in his career.

I still stand by my original odds ,I'm giving Royval *30% chance. If he goes in there and throws enough shit in the wall something devastating can happen.