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So, going by what Brendan Allen showed after mulling over retirement in his mid-twenties, I'm fully expecting Madsen to finish Guida in the second.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum - Discussion Thread
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So, going by what Brendan Allen showed after mulling over retirement in his mid-twenties, I'm fully expecting Madsen to finish Guida in the second.
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This feels like another week where people are going to reach for bets cause of all these fights being canceled between pfl and ufc
don’t reach, especially on favorites who dont deserve the price tag
Live bet or just pass
I think the only bets I have now are
guida +235
Gas +170
Cherant dec +575
Jones +107
not really much chalk left on the card. Odds are relatively tight for this one
don’t reach, especially on favorites who dont deserve the price tag
Live bet or just pass
I think the only bets I have now are
guida +235
Gas +170
Cherant dec +575
Jones +107
not really much chalk left on the card. Odds are relatively tight for this one
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Madsen itd +350 is not a bad play.
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I remain thoroughly unimpressed. Mostly girls barely past their debut in the regional scene, a finish over some 0-9 fighter. And even a split decision win over a 1-3 fighter, although that was quite earlier in her career. Could very well be a lot of part-time fighters turning into potato sacks hoping the ref stops it as opposed to Nunes being some savage finisher.
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Fair enough. I'm not impressed with Malecki at all either though. It's low level WMMA. I'm fine chucking a half unit on an underdog somewhat blindly.
I'm putting Malecki on a couple DK lineups, so I guess I'm really kind of just hoping for a finish either way.
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Yeah?
Hey man whats a platinum member mean?
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Where did you get Guida +235 and Cherant DEC +575? Also, do you think Gastelum can finish Cannonier? +435 seems OK.
I'm gonna pass on this card and spend more time on the next one.
How do you figure? What's his path to finish, a TKO? Quick SUB? Madsen had trouble finishing any of the talent he's faced even pre-UFC and his first four finishes were against absolute scrubs. Guida's been finished, but usually against proven talent. They're both old and Guida's on the decline, but I think I'd need +400 or more to play that line.
She looked utterly awful against Macedo. Extremely slow and plodding with pillow fists. If only Macedo hadn’t gassed out after one round. Malecki is legitimately one of the worst fighters on the roster if not the worst. I can’t blame you for the blind fade. I’m certainly tempted.
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I might back off the Jared Cannoneer bet. He doesn't look too hot in his interview. Saying the first surgery didn't take and he's tried not to get too out of shape.
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Ended up taking the -3.5pts +185 instead for madsen.
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Wouldn't that mean the 2 ufc chicks she beat are the worst?
Macedo was clearly the better fighter. She simply gassed after the first round. Malecki essentially won by default by being slightly more active (and looking terrible doing it). I can't speak to Santana.
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Facing adversity is what real warriors do. Clay Guida is a sloppy, high volume, trash fighter. Madsen by wrestlefuck to win 2/3 rounds or even a finish early.
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This one scares me a little just because Guida's gas tank could get him the 3rd round but I do wish ya the best of luck brotha!!!
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nobody should ever be scared playing a +185 -3.5 line, unless it's WMMA.
Still laughing I hit -3.5pts line for Fiziev against Green...
edit: The last time you would have been better off taking the straight line as opposed to -3.5 against Guida was in 2012 against Gray Maynard. Confidence increase.
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In this particular instance, we have seen Madsen gas and Guida's at least got a good tank. IMO I think he wins a 29-28 or pounds him out for the finish so I'd prefer the ML play but the odds are definitely good enough to justify the -3.5
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The thing with playing the -3.5 lines is that it doesn't just give you a better payout if you win, it reduces your exposure if Guida pulls off the win. On the last three cards, I'm not sure there was a single fight in which you were better off betting the favorite straight as opposed to the -3.5 line.
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True story. I also don't have access to a book w/ point spreads but I used to bet them all the time. I just think, in this particular case, Madsen's cardio scares me.
In other news:
SPORTSLINE PICKS. I'm not quite sure how this guy could be so controversial and yet so brave picking all favorites except Roberts but here's his analysis.
Jared Cannonier (-155) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+130): Cannonier (best bet)
Kelvin Gastelum will be stepping up on short notice to take on the very dangerous Jared Cannonier. Stylistically, this fight is a nightmare matchup for Gastelum. Look for Cannonier to defend Gastelum's takedown attempts with ease and get the better of the striking en route to victory.
Parker Porter (+160) vs. Chase Sherman (-190): Sherman (best bet)
This fight should be a lot of fun as both men love to keep it on the feet and strike. Look for Chase Sherman to be the more technical striker and potentially carry more power as well. Porter will try to press forward, but the high-volume output from Sherman will be too much for Porter.
Alexandre Pantoja (-165) vs. Brandon Royval (+140): Pantoja (best bet)
Alexandre Pantoja is coming off his most impressive win to date, a triumph over Manel Kape in February. He will look to continue that success as he takes on Brandon Royval. The 29-year-old Royval is a talented fighter, but in the areas where he is good, Pantoja is better. This is a very tough matchup for Royval, considering he is coming back from an extended layoff due to injury.
Brian Kelleher (-175) vs. Domingo Pilarte (+150): Kelleher (best bet)
Brian Kelleher will be looking to bounce back from a loss to Ricky Simon as he takes on Domingo Pilarte. Stylistically, this fight favors Kelleher, who will be the better striker and wrestler. Pilarte throws very wild punches and tends not to have much of a game plan. Look for Kelleher to counter Pilarte's wild punches and outland him.
William Knight (-195) vs. Fabio Cherant (+165): Knight (best bet)
We last saw Cherant get submitted by Alonzo Menifield back in March. Unfortunately for Cherant, he is entering another unfavorable matchup against Knight. Look for Knight to be the better striker and eventually take the fight to the floor, where he should dominate Cherant with his ground-and-pound.
Clay Guida (+140) vs. Mark Madsen (-165): Madsen (lean)
Looking to keep his undefeated record intact, Mark Madsen will face his toughest test to date when he takes on Clay Guida. The 39-year-old Guida is a cardio machine, but while he usually relies on his wrestling, he will have to try a different path as Madsen will be the better wrestler. Look for Madsen to close the distance very early and put Guida on his back. As long as his cardio has improved and he can control the pace of the fight, he should be able to outwrestle Guida and secure the victory.
Vinc Pichel (-115) vs. Austin Hubbard (-105): Pichel (lean)
Riding a two-fight winning streak, Vinc Pichel will be looking to make it three when he takes on Austin Hubbard. Look for Pichel to defend the takedown attempts of Hubbard and keep the fight standing, where he will have the advantage. Expect Pichel to land heavy shots on Hubbard and control the fight on the feet.
Austin Lingo (+115) vs. Luis Saldana (-135): Saldana (lean)
Luis Saldana will be looking to continue his winning ways as he takes on Austin Lingo. Both men are very well-rounded fighters, but Saldana has the bigger advantage on the feet. Look for Saldana to outstrike Lingo, forcing him to try to take the fight to the ground. I expect Saldana to be able to fend off the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he will get the win.
Roosevelt Roberts (-150) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+125): Bahamondes
Roosevelt Roberts will be looking to end his two-fight losing streak as he takes on young prospect Ignacio Bahamondes. The 23-year-old Bahamondes recently lost a split decision after also missing weight for the first time in his career. Look for him to be the better striker. He will need to stay off the cage and fend off the takedowns of Roberts. If he can do that and keep the fight on the feet, he should be able to get the win.
