UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

[Macaque]

If you've got Fight Pass I'd suggest you have a watch of his LFA title win against Ricky Steele before pulling the trigger on anything.

Ricky Steele is a solid pornstar name

 

[BigSteve]

thoughts on the remainder of the card:

Martinez/Zviad: Zviad looked pretty average in my opinion in his LFA debut. Not much striking output, hittable, and his mouth was open end of round 1. He pretty much waited for the perfect takedown and then tried to grind out each round. One thing I did notice is he is great at catching kicks. He caught a knee or kick in each of the 3 rounds and got a TD. His opponent is a vet but nothing special, and before that, all of his 10 wins were against 0-0 opponents which is nuts. In his last fight in LFA I though he looked improved. Better shape, and dangerous on the ground. After the TD, it was straight to the back until he patiently finished with a rear-naked. Martinez is ok with his Jits, he got taken down 3 times by Buren but he kept getting sweeps and getting dominant positions. I dont know how many improvements Zviad is making or how this fight will go if its 3 rounds of grappling. Tempted a bit by odds on Martinez, but probably pass until I have more answers on Zviad.

Jones/Onama: I will end up with the tiniest sprinkle on Onama. He probably loses here but odds are quite wide for Jones who is quite hittable and loves a brawl. Onama has some nice hands, both speed, and power from either stance. He is a bit raw, but his athleticism and power gets him out of trouble. He was in some bad spots against his toughest opponent who is a black belt, but he kept powering out and reversing. In the end he finished him via guillotine in the third. Like I said just a sprinkle in case Onama surprises us all.

Robocop/Park: I like Robocop as a dog. Faded him against Dusko because of his stiffness and durability. He seems to have improved a lot since his KO loss to Williams. Head movement and distance management imparticular. He is very technical with his striking. Both have great jabs but Robocop has a reach and power advantage. Park has the speed. Park is very serviceable everywhere and has an iron chin. He usually jabs and moves and occasionally mixes in takedowns to win fights. Don't know if he would be wrestling here, Robocop is dangerous on the ground. I can see Robocop him getting his own takedowns as well. Il take the bigger man that's more dangerous in the standup or ground. He seems to improving rapidly from fight to fight, it makes sense as he's not even 30 even though he looks 45.

Grant/Trinaldo: Didnt go too deep into this one. Watched a couple of fights and decided there was not enough value for me to play either side. If I was going to play it I would side with Trinaldo, a better fighter everywhere in my opinion. But I see him potentially winning and getting wobbled occasionally and then sweating a split decision. Would rather pass.

Alex/Choi: Odds are deffs wide. Had to go back to the Wang fight( wonder what happened to him ) to watch Alex v a striker close to Choi. He got battered there for 3 rounds and survived to an underserving split. I think this fight will go to a dec, at which point Choi DEC is plus money and I don't mind a lil sprinkle on Alex either. Both would be for some fun action otherwise pass.

Dawson/Glenn: Not much to say here, Glenn doesn't have the greatest takedown defense and Dawson is still improving. Can't pick whether Dawson will finish or grind out a dec so very easy pass at these odds.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Costa's power is a myth, boys.

So is his 'cardio'

Dude got zoomed up the rankings by beating Yoel and then all of a sudden he's some world beater. Got embarrassed by Izzy... Can't believe people were picking him to win, hope a lot of it was just hate for Izzy.
I haven't been this confident in a main event in a while, Vettori easy money.

Can someone give me some info on Ricci vs Oliveira? Both look like can crushers.

My only other confident plays are Herbert and Dawson.
Dawson is getting a co-main showcase fight.
Khama Worthy is baaaad, Herbert should be able to sleep him quick, as long as his chin doesn't let him down... Again.

I hate sounding so negative lol sorry

 

[TrueAscension]

Ok let's talk about the Vettori circle jerk for a sec shall we?

The Roberson sub was impressive but its Karl Roberson. Adesanya beat his ass easily and his most impressive win on paper would have been Kevin Holland in 2020 before everyone on the planet realized that even my 120lb wife could hold him up against the cage and take him down. When Vettori wasn't clinching or controlling the fight on the ground he was getting absolutely pieced. The Joker fight doesn't impress me at all as he's a pretty one dimensional fighter imo and is very hit and miss.

Now we know Holland has good sharp striking but Vettori controlling and taking him down in retrospect is not impressive at all.

I suppose it's been a while since Costa has fought but the dude hits like a goddamn truck. He has lost one fight in the UFC to arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC (outside of Kumaru?) and he looked awful in that fight. This to me is the definition of recency bias on both sides.

Obviously the Romero fight was a long tough decision and a tight fight as well if I remember correctly but TKO'ing Romero isnt the easiest task. Outside of that though, Costa has flatlined fucking everyone.

Its a little surprising to me that half of this forum had Costa against Adesanya but now he's washed.

Costa at + odds is the bet for me and I think he gets it done in an impressive fashion.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Ok let's talk about the Vettori circle jerk for a sec shall we?

The Roberson sub was impressive but its Karl Roberson. Adesanya beat his ass easily and his most impressive win on paper would have been Kevin Holland in 2020 before everyone on the planet realized that even my 120lb wife could hold him up against the cage and take him down. When Vettori wasn't clinching or controlling the fight on the ground he was getting absolutely pieced. The Joker fight doesn't impress me at all as he's a pretty one dimensional fighter imo and is very hit and miss.

Now we know Holland has good sharp striking but Vettori controlling and taking him down in retrospect is not impressive at all.

I suppose it's been a while since Costa has fought but the dude hits like a goddamn truck. He has lost one fight in the UFC to arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC (outside of Kumaru?) and he looked awful in that fight. This to me is the definition of recency bias on both sides.

Obviously the Romero fight was a long tough decision and a tight fight as well if I remember correctly but TKO'ing Romero isnt the easiest task. Outside of that though, Costa has flatlined fucking everyone.

Its a little surprising to me that half of this forum had Costa against Adesanya but now he's washed.

Costa at + odds is the bet for me and I think he gets it done in an impressive fashion.

Think the main thing is having cardio for 3+ rounds

vettori is pretty durable and costa couldn’t even get the chinny devin Clark out of there in his last fight and had to turn into a wrestler to secure the W

 

[Bakayoko]

MW really is a shit divison currently

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Think the main thing is having cardio for 3+ rounds

vettori is pretty durable and costa couldn’t even get the chinny devin Clark out of there in his last fight and had to turn into a wrestler to secure the W

Not to mention his shattered mentality ever since the Adensanya fight, and the plethora of red flags we've already seen from him this fight week.

I don't fault anyone for playing Costa rd1/rd2 ko, but if you don't play those, or his KO prop, I feel like you're leaving money on the table.

We've seen Marvin in deep waters numerous times the past year and a half. Costa has rarely made it past rd2, and the one time he did in the UFC, in a fight with no grappling aside from a late TD in rd2, he was dead tired.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Not to mention his shattered mentality ever since the Adensanya fight, and the plethora of red flags we've already seen from him this fight week.

I don't fault anyone for playing Costa rd1/rd2 ko, but if you don't play those, or his KO prop, I feel like you're leaving money on the table.

We've seen Marvin in deep waters numerous times the past year and a half. Costa has rarely made it past rd2, and the one time he did in the UFC, in a fight with no grappling aside from a late TD in rd2, he was dead tired.

I actually think costa is the better grappler. If this was a 3 rounder and costa was on weight I might actually favor him


But it’s not and as you said we have red flags.

Could costa come in and surprise me with 5 rd cardio? I think so but it’s not a good spot to bet imo.

and after getting burned 4 cards in a row on the main not going the distance, I think I’ll pass on any over under a this go around

 

[Sadistics]

Like Lacerda as dog, this fight is 50 50. Im live in Rio de Janeiro and know him. Hes well rounded, good in all areas and killer instict.

Others picks: Herbert, Trinaldo, Rodrigues, Clark, Over 1.5 Nick/Ike.
Thoughts about my picks?

Do you know what Lacerdas cardio is like? He sets quite the pace and has never been past rd1.

I like your other picks.

 

[sonhow]

Think the main thing is having cardio for 3+ rounds

vettori is pretty durable and costa couldn’t even get the chinny devin Clark out of there in his last fight and had to turn into a wrestler to secure the W

Costa fought Devin Clark?

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Ok let's talk about the Vettori circle jerk for a sec shall we?

The Roberson sub was impressive but its Karl Roberson. Adesanya beat his ass easily and his most impressive win on paper would have been Kevin Holland in 2020 before everyone on the planet realized that even my 120lb wife could hold him up against the cage and take him down. When Vettori wasn't clinching or controlling the fight on the ground he was getting absolutely pieced. The Joker fight doesn't impress me at all as he's a pretty one dimensional fighter imo and is very hit and miss.

Now we know Holland has good sharp striking but Vettori controlling and taking him down in retrospect is not impressive at all.

I suppose it's been a while since Costa has fought but the dude hits like a goddamn truck. He has lost one fight in the UFC to arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC (outside of Kumaru?) and he looked awful in that fight. This to me is the definition of recency bias on both sides.

Obviously the Romero fight was a long tough decision and a tight fight as well if I remember correctly but TKO'ing Romero isnt the easiest task. Outside of that though, Costa has flatlined fucking everyone.

Its a little surprising to me that half of this forum had Costa against Adesanya but now he's washed.

Costa at + odds is the bet for me and I think he gets it done in an impressive fashion.

Discredit all of Marvin's wins, but Costa doesn't have any impressive wins either, then... Yoel his best, and only good win. Hermansson win much better than Hall, Holland much better than Fat Hendricks or Bamgbose...

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I actually think costa is the better grappler. If this was a 3 rounder and costa was on weight I might actually favor him


But it’s not and as you said we have red flags.

Could costa come in and surprise me with 5 rd cardio? I think so but it’s not a good spot to bet imo.

and after getting burned 4 cards in a row on the main not going the distance, I think I’ll pass on any over under a this go around

Oh if it was a 3 rounder my pick would be Costa for sure, as I think Vettori drops the first two rounds.

And Costa may have the better grappling when they're fresh(we really don't know), but I highly doubt he'll have the cardio to fend him off in the later rounds.

That, on top of his seemingly mental problems and possible injury, leads me to believe when he's gassed he's just going to more or less quit.

Hopefully my losing streak for main events ends here, but we'll see.

 

[TrueAscension]

Think the main thing is having cardio for 3+ rounds

vettori is pretty durable and costa couldn’t even get the chinny devin Clark out of there in his last fight and had to turn into a wrestler to secure the W

I am not going to say that Devin Clark is a good fighter but he took some massive shots from Menifield and has been TKO'd twice in his career. Chinny is bit of an overstatement.

I also didn't check that he hasn't even fought Devin Clark lmao.

 

[TrueAscension]

Do you know what Lacerdas cardio is like? He sets quite the pace and has never been past rd1.

I like your other picks.

Oh you're back. Best bets on the ME?

 

[Spath]

Think the main thing is having cardio for 3+ rounds

vettori is pretty durable and costa couldn’t even get the chinny devin Clark out of there in his last fight and had to turn into a wrestler to secure the W

Devin Clark? Costa never fought Clark, I think you are confused.

Costa might benefit on not cutting so much weight as he is a big boy. Vettori is a clear favorite and I think my bet is on Costa with these odds. Interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[svmr_db]

195 lb catchweight has been made official in case you didn't see it yet

 

[Sadistics]

Oh you're back. Best bets on the ME?

Haven't taped that yet, wanted to see what came of the weight situation. It being at 195 benefits Costa but I still don't think I'll be interested in betting him. Thinking some kind of over with plans to LB Vettori. Will let you know if my opinion drastically changes after tape.

 

[Stat_Collector]

what do you guys think of Alex Submission prop?

Choi got rnc by Gavin which is Alex best sub. Seems plausible and at +950 odds its tempting

 

[mkess101]

Costa can get an early KO...but to me he really seems like the definition of a frontrunner. Vettori was clearly outclassed by Izzy, but he never stopped trying and his emotion was mostly frustration as that fight played out. Costa meanwhile froze like a deer in headlights when he realized he didn't have the tools to close distance and win. He mentally folded and got wrecked.

This seems like a fight where you are choosing the guy with more physical ability and power (outside cardio) vs the guy with more mental toughness, durability, and stamina.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Costa can get an early KO...but to me he really seems like the definition of a frontrunner. Vettori was clearly outclassed by Izzy, but he never stopped trying and his emotion was mostly frustration as that fight played out. Costa meanwhile froze like a deer in headlights when he realized he didn't have the tools to close distance and win. He mentally folded and got wrecked.

This seems like a fight where you are choosing the guy with more physical ability and power (outside cardio) vs the guy with more mental toughness, durability, and stamina.

Yeah Marvin will absolutely never give up in a fight and I don't think I've ever seen him badly hurt either. I think Marvin overwhelms him late in the fight due to having an insane gas tank and just that will to win that he has.

 

[KingRyan]

Seng Woo Choi wins ITD is +255 on my book.