UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Vettori

Sono07 said:
Statistically Alvey has an 84% percent failure rate wrestling so that would probably be a poor choice in his case. Who knows maybe he is magically an entirely differnet fighter here. I don't see how Phil Hawes wouldn't be considered heavy handed though, you lost me there. Chins are considered suspect when you see a fighter struggle to take clean shots consistently, completely the opposite case here.
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"unproven" is probably the better descriptor. I don't like assuming someone's chin is one way or another until it's been tested.

Thanks for the heads up on the start time. I'll be a few hours late into the show, have some work to do. hopefully I dont miss anything too exciting
 
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Foghorn Leghorn said:
"unproven" is probably the better descriptor. I don't like assuming someone's chin is one way or another until it's been tested.

Thanks for the heads up on the start time. I'll be a few hours late into the show, have some work to do. hopefully I dont miss anything too exciting
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That's a good way to put it. I think his chin is more proven than the middle weight version of 2021 Alvey though. As far as moving weight classes off a skid like this that's usually the last ditch effort of a man with a dieing mma career. I want to say Phil Hawes tested Julians chin and he passed just fine.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Alvarez lost by DQ, was complete bullshit. Best case he gets it overturned to a NC but he should have been given the win. If anyone's at fault it's the ref.
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It sounds like you lost money on Alvarez, which is not surprising.
Don’t be bitter, you can win that money back and more by betting on Jarjis Danho this weekend.
 
Sono07 said:
Statistically Alvey has an 84% percent failure rate wrestling so that would probably be a poor choice in his case. Who knows maybe he is magically an entirely differnet fighter here. I don't see how Phil Hawes wouldn't be considered heavy handed though, you lost me there. Chins are considered suspect when you see a fighter struggle to take clean shots consistently, completely the opposite case here.
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Phil didn't land a shot, he was green in his standup then.

I think we beat this horse to death, we'll have to wait till Saturday.
 
OuterDrake said:
Phil didn't land a shot, he was green in his standup then.

I think we beat this horse to death, we'll have to wait till Saturday.
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It definitely wouldn't be the first putrid pony I've punished. Whats the matter worried we will get an animal cruelty charge? Hawes landed several shots in r1 from elbows to ground and pound, not sure what fight you watched to claim otherwise. Best of luck on your vague bets this weekend but your justification and methods aren't very conducive to conversation.
 
Sono07 said:
It definitely wouldn't be the first putrid pony I've punished. Whats the matter worried we will get an animal cruelty charge? Hawes landed several shots in r1 from elbows to ground and pound, not sure what fight you watched to claim otherwise. Best of luck on your vague bets this weekend but your justification and methods aren't very conducive to conversation.
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i told you every possible pro and con to alvey and admit he could lose, I told you he has a decent lead hook and experience. I told you Julian is coming on short notice, I told you he struggled with a lesser tier fighter, I told you he has one decent ko against an active ufc fighter. I mentioned Alvey use to wrestle and implied he could do it better than Pitolo, I told you alvey has a 3 inch reach advantage, I told you Alvey is going in strong because this may be his last fight before getting cut so he coming in desperate and more motivated. I told you Alvey got a draw with a better boxer than Marquez , and Marquez is not on par with Jung, I told you Alvey is durable for only having 3 kos in 47 fights, I told you Alvey is only 34 not 38 like woodley and he still has mileage as he got a draw with Jung and a split loss to Ryan Spann, all of his last losses where near close.

I don't get what part of those points are vague to you? I went through a spread sheet and measured all their stats, and I came with the same even pros and cons. Alvey has 5 advantages and Julian has 5 advantages. I don't go by any bias, Im favoring Alvey in the hopes of a big payday as he adds more value and admitted he is a value bet like Sasha. Its animal cruelty, Saturday will put the questions to rest.
 
OuterDrake said:
i told you every possible pro and con to alvey and admit he could lose, I told you he has a decent lead hook and experience. I told you Julian is coming on short notice, I told you he struggled with a lesser tier fighter, I told you he has one decent ko against an active ufc fighter. I mentioned Alvey use to wrestle and implied he could do it better than Pitolo, I told you alvey has a 3 inch reach advantage, I told you Alvey is going in strong because this may be his last fight before getting cut so he coming in desperate and more motivated. I told you Alvey got a draw with a better boxer than Marquez , and Marquez is not on par with Jung, I told you Alvey is durable for only having 3 kos in 47 fights, I told you Alvey is only 34 not 38 like woodley and he still has mileage as he got a draw with Jung and a split loss to Ryan Spann, all of his last losses where near close.

I don't get what part of those points are vague to you? I went through a spread sheet and measured all their stats, and I came with the same even pros and cons. Alvey has 5 advantages and Julian has 5 advantages. I don't go by any bias, Im favoring Alvey in the hopes of a big payday as he adds more value and admitted he is a value bet like Sasha. Its animal cruelty, Saturday will put the questions to rest.
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I didn't hear many cons towards Alvey honestly. You never needed to tell anyone Alvey has a nice lead hook, combined with his unorthodox stance that has always been his entire game. I know Julian is in on short notice. Like Sam Pitolo was also fighting for his contract in that last fight. Damn fine effort in my opinion but if you missed the weirdness there you literally said it yourself.

Pitolo is not a wrestler at least statistically. Isn't it odd that someone normal known as a heavy handed striker felt the need to wrestle heavily for the first time?

You meantioned Alvey used to wrestle in high school? As did I but I'm not signing up for a UFC bout anytime soon. No meantion of his impressively terrible grappling skills in the UFC. Or Alvey's lack of KO'S in the UFC in years.

Everyone with a decent betting ability finds pros and cons advantages and disadvantages for their action, part of why we are here in the first place. Quoting information from a page full of outdated statistics leaves out alot of context of important nuances.
 
Sono07 said:
Is Alvey always there in r3? He has been KOED in 2 of his last 5 fights before seeing a 3rd round so I disagree a little there. Once by the now retired and decrepit fucking Lil Nog. Better cardio? Do you think cutting an extra 20lbs to make 185 will help with his already dog shit low output?

Did Alvey suddenly become some big finishing threat while I was asleep last night or are people wikicapping his record? Marquez has never been finished period in his mma career, Smilin Fuckin Sam really about to be the one to do that?
Who has Alvey stopped lately or in the UFC at all? Marcin the Kempo Karate kid Prachnio? Dudes whole ufc stint has been as a meme KO, the TKO loss is probably his signature move at this point.

I wouldn't even bet someone else's units that Alvey could finish his lunch these days. The guy barely throws punches. That and he gives up double underhooks against the cage like he wasn't hugged enough as a child and is trying to make up for lost time. Much more likely to get ground out against the cage or spend half the fight feinting his famous lead hook. Julian has a better kicking game and better clinch work. James Krause is going to have Marquez pressuring all 3 rounds and Alvey is probably going to get stopped again here. Sam's been getting by with the same basic limited game for way too long and it's about time for it to come to an end.
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Always there in round 3 as in his cardio never fades.

If I was wikicapping his record, I'd never mention him getting a finish because as you mentioned, he hasn't in a while.

I agree with a lot of your leans this card, I should've got on Solecki back when you messaged me about him, I think he was like -180 then.

But I'm not big on Marquez at all. This isn't a bet based on me having a tremendous amount of faith in Sam's skill set, it's more of me fading Marquez who I think is being tremendously overvalued here.

Marquez has never been finished, but we have a sample size of 10 pro fights, most of which come against lower level competition(aside from his Stewart finish, that's a great win).

We're talking about Alvey here like he's 40. The dude is 34. He has some fucking awful tendencies that will probably lose him round 1 against Marquez for sure. He backs up all the time, is content with just clinching people on the cage, and has incredibly low output.

I'm not an Alvey fan, I hate his shtick, and I'm not a fan of his fighting style. I just think if round 3 rolls around, and Marquez is even close to as gassed as he was against Pitolo, a fighter who I don't think is as good as Alvey -- he's getting finished.

That was a fucking low tier fight that made me put in my notes to never lay chalk on Marquez. Neither one of them looked like they were UFC caliber in that fight.

Maybe I have too much recency bias just because of that fight, we'll see.
 
Some will disagree with me for this one but i think i will throw a little sprinkle on Mike Perry and Holland.

impa kasanganay vs sasha palatnikov's fight will problary end in decision.
 
Sono07 said:
I didn't hear many cons towards Alvey honestly. You never needed to tell anyone Alvey has a nice lead hook, combined with his unorthodox stance that has always been his entire game. I know Julian is in on short notice. Like Sam Pitolo was also fighting for his contract in that last fight. Damn fine effort in my opinion but if you missed the weirdness there you literally said it yourself.

Pitolo is not a wrestler at least statistically. Isn't it odd that someone normal known as a heavy handed striker felt the need to wrestle heavily for the first time?

You meantioned Alvey used to wrestle in high school? As did I but I'm not signing up for a UFC bout anytime soon. No meantion of his impressively terrible grappling skills in the UFC. Or Alvey's lack of KO'S in the UFC in years.

Everyone with a decent betting ability finds pros and cons advantages and disadvantages for their action, part of why we are here in the first place. Quoting information from a page full of outdated statistics leaves out alot of context of important nuances.
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He was trained by Dan Henderson and Matt Linland, Maki Pitolo is a white belt in bjj, he would get creamed by Sam in a grappling match.



Again Im not 100% on alvey but there is enough info out there to support he stands a decent shot at an upset. Some people like em some people think he sucks, it wont be the last time im wrong or right. We all get chit wrong, we all cap fights different .there are pros and cons to being overly stats based and also just watching fight videos and making breakdowns. Both styles of info gathering works fine, I look at all things from gyms, past coaches, style matchups and using power of deducing. Its all fine, no one does things the same.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
I watched it, the ref gave him a red card which means dq. The commentators explained that it happened so early in the fight that it results in a no contest which is why bookie refunded. Might have something to do with the rules in onefc.
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I'm pretty sure it goes down as a loss. Sorry if this has already been addressed - haven't been on much.
 
Invictis said:
Always there in round 3 as in his cardio never fades.

If I was wikicapping his record, I'd never mention him getting a finish because as you mentioned, he hasn't in a while.

I agree with a lot of your leans this card, I should've got on Solecki back when you messaged me about him, I think he was like -180 then.

But I'm not big on Marquez at all. This isn't a bet based on me having a tremendous amount of faith in Sam's skill set, it's more of me fading Marquez who I think is being tremendously overvalued here.

Marquez has never been finished, but we have a sample size of 10 pro fights, most of which come against lower level competition(aside from his Stewart finish, that's a great win).

We're talking about Alvey here like he's 40. The dude is 34. He has some fucking awful tendencies that will probably lose him round 1 against Marquez for sure. He backs up all the time, is content with just clinching people on the cage, and has incredibly low output.

I'm not an Alvey fan, I hate his shtick, and I'm not a fan of his fighting style. I just think if round 3 rolls around, and Marquez is even close to as gassed as he was against Pitolo, a fighter who I don't think is as good as Alvey -- he's getting finished.

That was a fucking low tier fight that made me put in my notes to never lay chalk on Marquez. Neither one of them looked like they were UFC caliber in that fight.

Maybe I have too much recency bias just because of that fight, we'll see.
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OuterDrake said:
He was trained by Dan Henderson and Matt Linland, Maki Pitolo is a white belt in bjj, he would get creamed by Sam in a grappling match.



Again Im not 100% on alvey but there is enough info out there to support he stands a decent shot at an upset. Some people like em some people think he sucks, it wont be the last time im wrong or right. We all get chit wrong, we all cap fights different .there are pros and cons to being overly stats based and also just watching fight videos and making breakdowns. Both styles of info gathering works fine, I look at all things from gyms, past coaches, style matchups and using power of deducing. Its all fine, no one does things the same.
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Fair enough fellows. I might be giving Alvey entirely too much shit. Just because I think he has failed to perform doesn't mean he isn't still making improvements at his age. I appreciate the contrast, Marquez isnt anything special. I think he could have potential but I might be over selling him.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Some will disagree with me for this one but i think i will throw a little sprinkle on Mike Perry and Holland.

impa kasanganay vs sasha palatnikov's fight will problary end in decision.
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I'm with you on Perry honestly. Don't forget Brunson just elbowed the shit out of Holland only two weeks ago though. No finish but Holland just got worked over. I honestly believe Marvin would fuck Brunson's day up boxing or pure mma wrestling too, just my two cent.
 
Boxing Expert 101 said:
It sounds like you lost money on Alvarez, which is not surprising.
Don’t be bitter, you can win that money back and more by betting on Jarjis Danho this weekend.
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I'm bitter as a fan cause it's so stupid. I ended up making a lot more cause of the fuckery though. Had 0.5u risked but freerolled to win on Eddie as well and would have made about 0.8u profit. The Eddie side got voided though so the Lapicus side cashed on its own and put me up about 2u instead.
 
OuterDrake said:
He was trained by Dan Henderson and Matt Linland, Maki Pitolo is a white belt in bjj, he would get creamed by Sam in a grappling match.



Again Im not 100% on alvey but there is enough info out there to support he stands a decent shot at an upset. Some people like em some people think he sucks, it wont be the last time im wrong or right. We all get chit wrong, we all cap fights different .there are pros and cons to being overly stats based and also just watching fight videos and making breakdowns. Both styles of info gathering works fine, I look at all things from gyms, past coaches, style matchups and using power of deducing. Its all fine, no one does things the same.
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Gi belts mean nothing.
 
Hopefully on this fight card some people wont go over crazy like the other fight cards "We have a 10k bet!" oh my.
I dont want to hear lolz.
 
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