UFC FN: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen, April 15

TJ Brown a guy I dont know to rate. Sometimes looks like a real wtestler with control abilities. That spells bad for Algeo. On the other hand sometimes looks like a straight up can. Algeo probably wants this version.
 
Only 1 person missed weight:
  • Joselyn Edwards (136,5)* vs. Lucie Pudilova (136)
* Edwards missed women’s bantamweight limit by 0.5 pounds; fine amount TBD
 
I didn't like the look of Azamat. I feel good about my 1 unit on Jacoby and decided to add another one based on weigh in looks. 2 unity on Jacoby will be my biggest bet on the card.
 
magpie878 said:
I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

I love watching Royval and will always take a shot with him.
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100% agree on loving watching him fight.

100% not betting him here though LOL. I think Nicolau has an answer for everything Brandon does. But too juiced so maybe will play under 2.5 but otherwise pass.
 
mkess101 said:
100% agree on loving watching him fight.

100% not betting him here though LOL. I think Nicolau has an answer for everything Brandon does. But too juiced so maybe will play under 2.5 but otherwise pass.
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Just playing devil's advocate here, but Royval's UFC losses are to guys who are solid everywhere AND can thrive in chaos. I'd agree that Nicolau can match Royval in most aspects, but I'm not sure he can stay very sound if Royval succeeds in making it chaos.
 
Oblivian said:
Just playing devil's advocate here, but Royval's UFC losses are to guys who are solid everywhere AND can thrive in chaos. I'd agree that Nicolau can match Royval in most aspects, but I'm not sure he can stay very sound if Royval succeeds in making it chaos.
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Don't blame anyone for taking a shot on Brandon but I just think the line is about right. He's super aggressive to the point of being borderline reckless, but it often works for him. I just rate Nicolau's overall skillset as enough to handle whatever Brandon throws at him.
 
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mkess101 said:
Don't blame anyone for taking a shot on Brandon but I just think the line is about right. He's super aggressive to the point of being borderline reckless, but it often works for him. I just rate Nicolau's overall skillset as enough to handle whatever Brandon throws at him.
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Line is too high now but if you got him at near opening, I think there was value there and market agreed.
Counter strikers usually beat wild fighters. Being a good wrestler/ grappler will help with the blitzes.
 
Don't really like a lot on this card, I like Bruna as a parlay piece but I'm mainly betting dogs right now and I don't really like any of them.
 
Anyone have any strong prizepicks leans? I've got some pudilova 0ver 0.5 takedowns as I understand she's been entering a ton of bjj tournaments
 
carolinagrapple said:
Anyone have any strong prizepicks leans? I've got some pudilova 0ver 0.5 takedowns as I understand she's been entering a ton of bjj tournaments
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Yeah we're (@PuertoRican and @Jae Gibbz ) all on that as well. Also huge on Cummins under 85.5 fantasy pts but it dropped to 82.5. Gutierrez under 89.5 fantasy pts but dropped now to 85.5.
Over on sig strikes for Billy Q, Zellhuber, Algeo, and Max. Under 2 takedowns for Rafa. Piera/Rodriguez over 12.5 minutes.
 
I will never ever bet on Pudilova as I consider her absolutely terrible.
Doesn't mean that I will bet against her in that case though, I will probably skip that fight or bet the over.
 
I know cummings is up a couple weights but he did it the Jake Collier way. Dude's thick and not in a good way.
 


Max Holloway (146) vs. Arnold Allen (146)
Edson Barboza (146) vs. Billy Quarantillo (146)
Dustin Jacoby (206) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (205)
Ion Cutelaba (206) vs. Tanner Boser (203)
Pedro Munhoz (136) vs. Chris Gutierrez (136)
Clay Guida (154.5) vs. Rafa Garcia (155)
Bill Algeo (146) vs. TJ Brown (146)
Brandon Royval (126) vs. Matheus Nicolau (126)
Zak Cummings (206) vs. Ed Herman (206)
Gillian Robertson (116) vs. Piera Rodriguez (116)
Lando Vannata (156) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (156)
Bruna Brasil (116) vs. Denise Gomes (115)
Aaron Phillips (136) vs. Gaston Bolanos (136)
Joselyne Edwards (136.5)* vs. Lucie Pudilova (136)

*Joselyne Edwards missed weight by 0.5 pounds. Because of the miss, 20 percent of her fight purse will go to opponent Lucie Pudilova.
 
Tebowned said:
I know cummings is up a couple weights but he did it the Jake Collier way. Dude's thick and not in a good way.
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Never thought I'd be considering an Ed Herman bet in 2023 but here we are. He's had a long lay off but Zak even longer and looked bad on the scale.

Also just read that Cummings sneezed and blew his back out and was bedbound for 3 months as a result and needed surgery, just so many red flags against someone who did his best work two weight classes down and was never really ranked better than top 30 or so.

Smart money passes, but I'll probably bet Herman at 2.75. His KO prop at 11 is tempting too. Zak is pretty tough and not been finished by strikes but we also have no idea how he's going to look in there but the red flags don't look great.
 
mkess101 said:
Oh yeah I know Nikita is a great top control guy. I honestly just remember Walker being completely controlled but it's been awhile since I watched, maybe he wasn't quite as helpless as I remember.

We're discussing a fight quite a bit that neither of us have much interest in betting LOL...which is fine but seems like time and energy better spent on some of the other fights?

You probably covered in your podcast maybe, but thoughts on Nicolau/Royval? From an excitement standpoint should be fun to watch because Royval isn't capable of being boring, but I also think that makes Nicolau itd at close to +200 something to look at. Royval takes so many chances and Nicolau is a guy more than capable of taking advantage of Royval overcommitting to something.
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Im deffs on Royval. He is hittable and will no doubt walk into something + bad TDD. Can't help and feel he will still take a round of Nicolau through pure aggression and volume
 
Ive gone big on Allen in the ME. I think he makes it easy vs Max.

Seeing Max at weigh in, legend of a fighter, but I think the guy has been hit one too many times in the head....
 
Pierra beat two okay grinders in Hansen and Hughes and did so it without too much trouble. I wonder if the change of weigh class makes Gillians takedwons a tad bit stronger. Her glaring weakness so far in her grappling.
 
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