There's an issue here: You just don't bet Bruno Silva as a favourite. He's more of an underdog type of play. You don't expect much from him and get him for cheap to surprise you. Guy's an action fighter, I'll give him that. Pushes a pace, has a great heart. But there's not a lot of sophistication anywhere, also not a good athlete. How is Brendan Allen knocking you down, man? Twice. He has functional striking, but it's not even his A game.
You get for cheap freaking Chris Weidman, man! Yeah he is shot, but is an actual athlete with "A" level of wrestling and grappling. And let's not forget the recent rejuvenation that some fighters have shown us after UFC kicked out USADA. OSP comes to mind as a fresh example.
Weidman is one of these guys who's game I'm willing to bet will be totally different on and off supplements. He's a strong wrestler with good grappling and control. Even the worst version of Weidman has good chances in this fight, but I'm willing to bet we'll see a refreshed Weidman. Bruno Silva is not a guy who's gonna pick Weidman from a far, kick his legs and be safe from takedowns. He's going right in Weidman's face and is either going to knock him out, or get wrestled to the ground and submitted. More often than not I'm betting the wrestler in such situations and odds from the bookies. It's just more reliable than a KO. And I can hedge with a Silva 1st round knockout if I'm not willing to get completely exposed in this spot.
P.S.Don't be surprised if you see Weidman looking like he got 10 years younger all of a sudden when in the cage.