UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

[guesswhoseback]

Dumas is a decent pick. Underrated grappling, and that is his path to victory. Seen Ruziboev get mounted and out grappled, looks terrible off his back. Not a sure thing but i think it's 50/50

All Dumas does it seems like is stay home and smokes weed all day from the interviews I watch

 

[sonhow]

All Dumas does it seems like is stay home and smokes weed all day from the interviews I watch

He also commits crimes here and there apparently

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

TRIPLE:
Bill Algeo, Nursultan Ruziboev, Jamal Emmers.

 

[EndlessCritic]

fiorot, jandiroba, petroski and landwehr seem like most obvious dog picks. I see all 4 fights close to 50/50 (as much as petroski sucks). Will also have small plays on Pacheco and Burns as odds are too wide.

god bless anyone laying money on weidman. betting weidman has the same energy as betting diego sanchez at this point.

hate laying juice but i'll be on njokuani, ruziboev, bruno silva, and luque.

 

[mkess101]

What exactly does Dudakova have for Gatto? Seems like a fight where Gatto is just gonna be a bit better everywhere and the -150 will look very justified. She may well look like -250, winning rounds pretty easily...

 

[EndlessCritic]

What exactly does Dudakova have for Gatto? Seems like a fight where Gatto is just gonna be a bit better everywhere and the -150 will look very justified. She may well look like -250, winning rounds pretty easily...

I can't say i even remember the Frey fight. But Dudakova impressed me on DWCS with her athleticisim.

Gatto is very good, but she's also a little too happy to play off her back.

Likely will play Gatto at current odds.

 

[mkess101]

I can't say i even remember the Frey fight. But Dudakova impressed me on DWCS with her athleticisim.

Gatto is very good, but she's also a little too happy to play off her back.

Likely will play Gatto at current odds.

I agree with Gatto liking her guard a bit too much, but I don't see Dudakova having the TD ability to capitalize.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

What exactly does Dudakova have for Gatto? Seems like a fight where Gatto is just gonna be a bit better everywhere and the -150 will look very justified. She may well look like -250, winning rounds pretty easily...

Gatto has very long arms (i suspect her reach is closer to 72" than the listed 69") and has shown glimpses of being able to weaponize that reach which is her best path to victory here imo. We saw in Gatto's last fight that she moves well laterally so imo she could quite easily win a low volume 15 minute kickboxing match simply by establishing her jab and busting up the face of Dudakova; sticking and moving. We also saw in Dudakova's last fight her footwork is not very good so she likely will not have an answer for Gatto's lateral movement which will inhibit her ability to cut off the cage, land shots of her own, and initiate grappling once she gets frustrated when she cannot land clean.

Dudakova though definitely has better takedowns and control. Gatto does not seem to have much of a getup game as well so if she is taken down that may just be the round right there and we have seen her be content to play BJJ off her back.

Dudakova definitely has a chance through her grappling, which is why I could never get anywhere near capping Gatto at -250, but she should win.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Dumas is a decent pick. Underrated grappling, and that is his path to victory. Seen Ruziboev get mounted and out grappled, looks terrible off his back. Not a sure thing but i think it's 50/50

Its not 50/50, hes too small and weak and inexperienced. Nursulton will win inside the distance

 

[Stat_Collector]

Its not 50/50, hes too small and weak and inexperienced. Nursulton will win inside the distance

Dumas has 20+ hidden amateur fights.

 

[mkess101]

Gatto has very long arms (i suspect her reach is closer to 72" than the listed 69") and has shown glimpses of being able to weaponize that reach which is her best path to victory here imo. We saw in Gatto's last fight that she moves well laterally so imo she could quite easily win a low volume 15 minute kickboxing match simply by establishing her jab and busting up the face of Dudakova; sticking and moving. We also saw in Dudakova's last fight her footwork is not very good so she likely will not have an answer for Gatto's lateral movement which will inhibit her ability to cut off the cage, land shots of her own, and initiate grappling once she gets frustrated when she cannot land clean.

Dudakova though definitely has better takedowns and control. Gatto does not seem to have much of a getup game as well so if she is taken down that may just be the round right there and we have seen her be content to play BJJ off her back.

Dudakova definitely has a chance through her grappling, which is why I could never get anywhere near capping Gatto at -250, but she should win.

I think I said it before, but I really don't think Dudakova's TD's or entries are very good. Not vs someone with the distance management that Gatto seems to have. But I agree, IF Gatto gets put on her back it's a problem for her. I just don't see it as likely.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Dumas has 20+ hidden amateur fights.

Dumas sucks …. If Josh Fremd beat him with grappling - nurselton will ragdoll him

Dumas doesn’t even really have a punchers chance - because he doesn’t hit that hard either

Don’t see a path really

 

[Kyle Stephens]

After further tapestudy for the Weidman v Silva fight my final thoughts are that they are both pretty bad. You're just gambling here on who will be less bad in the octagon. It just doesn't feel right for a bet on either side. Weidman's line seemed tempting watching how easily Allen has dealt with Silva, but Allen is a lot better then Weidman is now.

 

[yellowbean]

You all say Fiorot's TDD is decent,which fight i can see that？don't watch much WMMA

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dumas sucks …. If Josh Fremd beat him with grappling - nurselton will ragdoll him

Dumas doesn’t even really have a punchers chance - because he doesn’t hit that hard either

Don’t see a path really

Fremd is a better grappler than Ruziboev. take just little time to tape his fights and you’ll see he gets taken down easily by even average bums. Dumas is a solid grappler, it either ends in him ko or he gets a ground ctrl decision. This is how Ruziboev lost his fight in 2019 to a lesser opponent.

 

[Thesnake101]

Fremd is a better grappler than Ruziboev. take just little time to tape his fights and you’ll see he gets taken down easily by even average bums. Dumas is a solid grappler, it either ends in him ko or he gets a ground ctrl decision. This is how Ruziboev lost his fight in 2019 to a lesser opponent.

That's 5 years ago, and remember that Ruzi still has 20 subs on his record. He could very well end up subbing Dumas eventually.

 

[Stat_Collector]

That's 5 years ago, and remember that Ruzi still has 20 subs on his record. He could very well end up subbing Dumas eventually.

that’s him getting mounted in 2021 by a nobody.

dont let his record fool you, he has like 60% wins against guys with less than 5 fights. often 3-1 like records or even 4-4 records. most of his subs are very low rated opponents. I give him the benefit of the doubt that he has good hands and has some grappling ability, i just don’t believe he is that much of a favorite.

 

[Stat_Collector]

That's 5 years ago, and remember that Ruzi still has 20 subs on his record. He could very well end up subbing Dumas eventually.

Alex De Paula 4-5 record took him down.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Fremd is a better grappler than Ruziboev. take just little time to tape his fights and you’ll see he gets taken down easily by even average bums. Dumas is a solid grappler, it either ends in him ko or he gets a ground ctrl decision. This is how Ruziboev lost his fight in 2019 to a lesser opponent.

Last time I checked Dumas was paying +100 to get 1+ takedown

 

[Guld]

I'm gonna miss a majority of the card, so I'm not going to be betting much this time around.
I threw a couple of bucks on Manon though.
There's something about Erin that I just don't trust. Even when she wins (and does well) I still feel that she was kinda lucky to get that win. Whether it be favorable style matchup, or low IQ/mistake from the opponent, etc.
She may very well blast through Manon, so I'm not betting a lot, but for now I think the +150 is worth a little bet.