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UFC on ESPN+: Edgar v Munhoz
- Thread starter Tirimasuperman
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The weight cut has me scared off a prebet but Edgar might be live if the fight goes into later rounds. Maybe his chin just isn't there but to his credit Frankie has the most fight time in UFC history at over 7 hours. With all that Octagon time it's kind of impressive he has only been KOed twice.
No doubt the Ortega fight was a bad look. He took the Zombie fight with no camp on 2 weeks notice though, probably had to cut weight on the flight to Korea. I think Zombie will do the same thing to Ortega that he did to Edgar here soon too.
No doubt the Ortega fight was a bad look. He took the Zombie fight with no camp on 2 weeks notice though, probably had to cut weight on the flight to Korea. I think Zombie will do the same thing to Ortega that he did to Edgar here soon too.
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What do you guys think of these?
1k on Agapova to win in the first. Another 1k on her to win by anything other than a decision.
^ Dobson doesn't have a winning record and isn't very good and Agapova likes to start hard. Has a few first round finishes as well recently.
Mizuki to beat Lemos.
^ Mizuki is great. Her only loss in the last 5 years has been to Virna, and Virna is awesome. Even that was a split decision, though I don't actually remember it being close at all. Lemos hasn't really faced anyone good.
Can get 1.72 on Mizuki. I didn't think the odds should be that close on this one, but maybe there's something I'm missing.
Thought?
1k on Agapova to win in the first. Another 1k on her to win by anything other than a decision.
^ Dobson doesn't have a winning record and isn't very good and Agapova likes to start hard. Has a few first round finishes as well recently.
Mizuki to beat Lemos.
^ Mizuki is great. Her only loss in the last 5 years has been to Virna, and Virna is awesome. Even that was a split decision, though I don't actually remember it being close at all. Lemos hasn't really faced anyone good.
Can get 1.72 on Mizuki. I didn't think the odds should be that close on this one, but maybe there's something I'm missing.
Thought?
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Ugh, these cancellations suck... Was really looking forward to Alonzo vs. OSP! Does anyone know if the event will start later, or end earlier?
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A wolf asking the sheep? I think you are more knowledgeable than most people on here, you doing better than 90% of sherdogs.....lol.
I really like the bet, I might do that too maybe 1/10 of the scale. Dobson might not want to be there than it is a good bet. Or 3 losing streak might inspire her to train harder. Dobson only have 1 lost itd, so it have to be +400 in 1st round and +200 itd, anything less have no value from my point of view.
I got Mizuki at $1000 to win $600, regret the bet now since the line move against me. I watch Inonu vs Virna, I thought Inoue lost every round. That fight only prove that Inoue have great submission defense. There is a very good chance Inoue lose first round if you like live bet. gl.
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I was wondering that myself...
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Base on previous event, every fight have 30 min windows, so each fight got cancel the starting time get delay for 30 min longer.
It is possible the fight start at the same time if this is live television. I am thinking early prelim on fight pass, than it will be delay 30 min each fight got cancel.
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Yeah, I was betting only 250 per card lately. I've made around 500 profit for each of the last 5-6 cards, so it works, but I want to move back up to 2k risk per card again. So I'm nervous and wanted extra opinions haha.
With Dobson, I think the only reason she doesn't have more first round losses is because other than Priscilla, the better comp she's faced don't even have a history of finishing fights. Agapova on the other hand does, and I like that she gets it done by either strikes or subs.
Yeah, Mizuki def lost every round against Virna. i think it was more because Virna didn't really do much damage herself and some judges don't like that. Losing to Virna like that isn't embarrassing. A lot of people don't understand just how good Virna is. She'll be fighting for a belt in the UFC one day.
What makes you think that Mizuki might lose in the first? The only way I see it is if Miz tries to clinch up a lot. She did this in her last fight I think. The fight I watched Lemos in, she got taken down against the cage and put on a guillotine and won. So, there's a concern for that, but I think Mizuki will recognize that Lemos has a sub threat and will try to pick her apart on the feet. I think Mizuki will be way too busy and more skilled on the feet than Lemos. Lemos hasn't really fought anyone on Mizuki's level yet.
Going to rewatch both girl's fights in the next hour before the fights start.
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2k risk is a very tough barrier to break thru and stay there. gl breaking that 1k barrier and stay there.
it is technical power vs technical volume, the technical power always(likely) wins first round. Lemos is lighting up Leslie Smith with power, it is only Smith sick aggression and make it as dirty as possible to make the round close. I think Lemos is the better striker, I might change side too. The fight is likely decide what Amanda Lemos look like in second rd. I don't recall Inoue being a pressure fighter like Leslie Smith, Inoue technical striking might be her down fall against such powerful striker.
I believe the card's start time got pushed back 30 min.
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Lots of money starting to go towards grant, if it continues I'll play rodriguez.
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I was doing 2k+ after 3 months and didn't really drop down below that for 10 months. Only been doing 250 now because I was trying a new approach.
Watching tape so here's some more thoughts:
Mizuki definitely pressures and she reacts well to being the smaller, less powerful striker. I'm watching her against Wu, who was way bigger and came in overweight, and Miz is isn't worried at all by the power and she's not taking a single step back. Wu is a FLW as well it says.
Also, it was a long time ago, but I remember her fighting Bec. Bec def had the strength and size, but Mizuki lit her up on the feet anyway.
Lemos is a counter striker with power. You bring up Smith and I'm watching that now. One thing to keep in mind: Leslie is not that good. I don't think Mizuki will be using as much pressure as Smith did, but Lemos isn't going to able to get off the same strikes as she did against Smith because Mizuki is a far, far better striker than Smith. Smith is real sloppy on the feet. I imagine that Miz will have seen how Lemos reacts to the pressure that Smith put on her as well.
Hard to find a lot on Lemos, but looking at some of her older fights, she seems to rely too much on that counter striking for me. Mizuki is great defensively and I just can't see Lemos doing enough.
I am thinking of Live Betting that one though. Not sure why lol.
Back to a bit more on Agapova vs Dobson:
I'm rewatching a bit of Dobson and some stuff is really standing out.
First, Aga is a kickboxer and she's pretty freaking wild in the exchanges. Dobson's only real strength is her boxing, and a boxer usually has good success against a kickboxer, especially a more wild one.
Dobson fought Mazo, who is a tall kickboxer like Aga. Mazo is less wild though. In the first minute Mazo went high with strikes I think, but then ended with a kick to the body which hurt Dobson badly. Pick any of Aga's fights and you'll see she absolutely loves the 1-2 then body kick combo. Against Conners she literally spammed that attack and it led to the finish. Makes me think she'll be looking for it again against Dobson early.
I feel like Dobson is probably just going to get overwhelmed early and finished somehow, but then, something tells me it's going to be a bit more competitive than the betting lines suggest. Not much more competitive though, mind you.
Might just do Aga only to win. Might do her to win by anything other than decision. Dobson is real hittable from what I'm seeing.
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$200.00 $11,532.50 Pending 3 Team Parlay
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8/22/2020 7:00:01 PM MMA Props Fighting 1731 Wright wins by submission +850* vs Any other result
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8/22/2020 7:00:01 PM MMA Props Fighting 1731 Wright wins by submission +850* vs Any other result
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8/22/2020 6:30:01 PM MMA Props Fighting 1833 Semelsberger wins by TKO/KO +280* vs Any other result
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8/22/2020 6:00:01 PM MMA Props Fighting 1903 Jones / Valiev goes 3 round distance -160* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
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I agree Leslie Smith is not very good technical striker but you can not deny how effective his stand up are. She overwhelm Amanda Lemos who the public think is better than Mizuki Inoue. Smith also beat one of the best striker Irene Aldana. Just like Fedor, he is not very good technical striker but it is very effective, unpredictable and powerful. Sometime being too good of technical striker is no good, it is predictable like John Makdessi. It is very intriguing fight, what is intriguing is we don't known what Lemos like at midway and grappling exchange. I am drawing a blank, maybe I tail you so post your bet....lol.
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Yeah, still feeling Miz. What makes you say the publkic thinks Lemos is better? I'm not seeing any of that myself on media sites that post predictions or on the betting lines. I was counting Lemos out more than I should have though, now that I've watched some more tape of her.
I still think Smith isn't a great measuring stick. You mention Irene as being one of the best strikers, but I don't know about that. She was getting whooped by Ketlen on the fight until she landed that left. Other than that, she hasn't really beaten any decent strikers.
Yeah, I'll post my bet closer to the mark if I'm going on Mizuki vs Lemos and how.
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UFC on ESPN 15 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-on-espn-15-pbp-discussion.4129122/
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Mizuki Inoue open at -200, the public bet Amanda Lemos line down to almost pick'em. Money is coming in for Amanda Lemos, the public will bet who they think going to win the fight(odd might have to do with it too).
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Im going against the grain and taking Minus -110, KO +600, and R3 +1850
Minus is not good but Semi is even worse. I dont understand why people are betting on him at near evens. First, he has shown zero MMA wrestling so why would Rick Story wrestlefucking Minus be predictive of all of Semi wrestling if he fails to even use his wrestling vs bums and is often outgrappled himself?
Minus showed improved TDD and getups vs Schon Ellis. Hard to see the guy who doesnt even go for takedowns against low tier competition having much more success than Ellis. If anything I’d wonder if Minus could perhaps outgrapple Semi given how poor his TDD was vs Gratalo.
And the likely outcome is this is striker vs striker. Semi has some pop, and Minus is prone to getting clipped, so it’s easy to see this being competitive. But Minus has never been KO’d, and Semi’s best win came against a guy who is 8-6 with 6 losses via round 1 KO. Minus won’t be as easy to put away early, although Semi KO is certainly plausible.
And if Minus survives round 1, he tends to get loose in rounds 2 + 3 and do quite a bit of cumulative damage. Semi has been KO’d by 2-1 Jerome Featherstone in round 3 more recently than Minus lost to Story. Why can’t Minus get a late finish here?
I do see this being relatively competitive, but I like Minus odds of either taking rounds 2 + 3 on volume + damage or getting a late finish so I took a little action
@Sadistics why not hedge more at evens? A freeroll to win $5k on Semi seems quite a bit better than $3k to win $8k. I just don’t see what evidence there is on tape of Semi competence to be that confident to not take off some risk at evens.
Minus is not good but Semi is even worse. I dont understand why people are betting on him at near evens. First, he has shown zero MMA wrestling so why would Rick Story wrestlefucking Minus be predictive of all of Semi wrestling if he fails to even use his wrestling vs bums and is often outgrappled himself?
Minus showed improved TDD and getups vs Schon Ellis. Hard to see the guy who doesnt even go for takedowns against low tier competition having much more success than Ellis. If anything I’d wonder if Minus could perhaps outgrapple Semi given how poor his TDD was vs Gratalo.
And the likely outcome is this is striker vs striker. Semi has some pop, and Minus is prone to getting clipped, so it’s easy to see this being competitive. But Minus has never been KO’d, and Semi’s best win came against a guy who is 8-6 with 6 losses via round 1 KO. Minus won’t be as easy to put away early, although Semi KO is certainly plausible.
And if Minus survives round 1, he tends to get loose in rounds 2 + 3 and do quite a bit of cumulative damage. Semi has been KO’d by 2-1 Jerome Featherstone in round 3 more recently than Minus lost to Story. Why can’t Minus get a late finish here?
I do see this being relatively competitive, but I like Minus odds of either taking rounds 2 + 3 on volume + damage or getting a late finish so I took a little action
@Sadistics why not hedge more at evens? A freeroll to win $5k on Semi seems quite a bit better than $3k to win $8k. I just don’t see what evidence there is on tape of Semi competence to be that confident to not take off some risk at evens.
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Ugh stopppp, already tempted to keep freerolling. Semi has the potential to blow through Minus while C- is looking for a close dec. At these odds and the way I see it I have to leave at least 3.5u, should've kept the full 4k, but I do have questions around Semi
