Yesterday I did some tape on Irina Alekseeva and Melissa Dixon. As some of you know, there is isn't that much to watch so this comes down to a handful of fights in total.
I ended up putting 0.5U on Irina Alekseeva to win over Melissa Dixon @+125.
I will say that I base most of this bet on the last fight for each lady, although the other fights sort of enhanced my view that I had formed after watching those fights.
Melissa fought Darya Zheleznyakova. Darya was quite easily getting the better of the stand-ups and had I not known the result in advanced I would have guessed that Darya would eventually get Melissa out of there. Melissa then gets the fight to the ground and the fight is completely reversed. Darya has absolutely no clue what to do on the ground and Melissa handily pounds her out super fast even though the round was about to end at any second.
I have seen some people say that Melissa has strong ground and pound, but in this particular fight, i feel that Darya's complete lack of ground game was the deciding factor more so than Melissa being some Smashing Machine.
Melissa also fought Rizlen Zouak and I wasn't impressed at all with Melissa. I think Zouak would lose to any girl in the UFC. She kept going for this stupid head and arm throw despite being exhausted and ended up giving up the back. Not sure how much you can make of this fight, Zouak was just too bad in all aspects of MMA. If anything, Melissa should have dominated this fight more... especially if ground and pound is her speciality. She was gifted so many favourable spots and did little with them.
Irina fought Stephanie Egger. I had just watched the Melissa and Darya fight and what struck me was that Irina and Darya sort fights a bit similar in the stand-up. Darya being more technical and Irina being more of a brawler, but they are both long flailing arms and hooks. My gut feeling was that if Darya could win the stand-up, then Irina should as well. Irina will most likely take quite a few punches, but she seems quite happy to take 1 to give 1.... or even take 2 or 3 to give one.
Irina has the Sambo background and we saw that she has at least a pretty slick knee bar submission. She is for sure better on the ground then both of Melissas last opponents. I mean Darya got absolutely smoked in 30 seconds on the ground and Zouak was just horrible.
A brawl with both ladies getting hit is going to favour Irina imo. I think Melissa wants to keep it technical with a few pot shots here and there, while Irina wants the opposite. You can sort of see that this is what she prefers in round 1 vs Zouak. There is no way that Irina will let her have that fight. Irina will come forward no stop. Therefore I think Irina will win the stand-up, it wont be pretty and it might take some time, but she will wear Melissa out if this fight is kept standing.
So, can Melissa get this fight to the ground? I think she can and I think she will. Irina seems way to flailing for me to believe she has a good takedown defence. If Melissa can hold Irina down long enough and land ground and pound, she will win. If Irina can keep the fight standing she will win. There is also a scenario where both ladies just shows what they are made of and slug it out for 15 minutes in that case, who knows.
With all that being said.... and that was more than I planned on writing. I think Irina's pressure will wear Melissa down over time and I think that in round 2 and 3 the pressure will be to much and Melissa will lose more and more in the striking and have a harder and harder time getting the fight to the ground.
I lean 60-40 in Irinas favour and with the odds where they are I feel that there is good value on Irina here.
