UFC Vegas 81: Yusuff vs. Barboza, October 14

[Captain Chesapeake]

Think I like Barboza as a dog.

Sodiq is good but I don't think he has the power to put Barboza away or the wrestling to ground Barboza. Barbozas had a couple of close decisions go against him in the past (I still think he won the Ige fight) but generally he's still an elite striker and the way to beating him generally involves either grounding him or putting a beating on him.

Sodiq may end up being able to hang with him but I think it's a step up for Sodiq and he couldn't make that step up when he last tried against Allen. I was on Barboza against Billy Q (and Hooker way back when) for similar reasons and think I like Barboza in this instance too.

I don’t like how badly he gasses and how quickly it happens at this weight

 

[Georges Hefner]

Yusuff def. Barboza via DEC (majority)

Martinez def. Yanez via TKO (punches) R2

Pereira def. Petroski via KO (body punch and knee) R1

Chairez def. Lacerda via SUB (toehold) R1

Rodriguez def. Saiman via DEC (split)

McKinney def. Marotte via KO (elbows and punch) R1

 

[EndlessCritic]

+odds on yanez? wow.

petroski +160 is wide. he will make pereira work.

 

[Guld]

Did some quick tape on Yanez and Martinez.
I'm leaning Martinez.
Great distance control and movement. By comparison Yanez is very stationary.
Martinez loves to land kicks. Heavy leg kicks and body kicks (He's SouthPaw, Yanez is orthodox, so those targets will be available all night). He also spams head kicks to mix things up and open up targets.
When it comes into close range Yanez will likely have the boxing advantage (more polished and clean), but Martinez often crashes in with an elbow and has no problem clinching+grappling which kinda renders that whole scenario far less effective.

 

[rev0lver]

+odds on yanez? wow.

petroski +160 is wide. he will make pereira work.

Personally, I've been waiting for the right fight to hard-fade Petroski and I think this could be it. He has some power, but his standup isn't great and can come with cardio issues. And despite his grappling base, his MMA grappling doesn't seem strong enough to hold people down at this level. Pereira's not an easy sub target to catch something off guard either. Think I'm pretty confident in either Pereira decision or later KO.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Personally, I've been waiting for the right fight to hard-fade Petroski and I think this could be it. He has some power, but his standup isn't great and can come with cardio issues. And despite his grappling base, his MMA grappling doesn't seem strong enough to hold people down at this level. Pereira's not an easy sub target to catch something off guard either. Think I'm pretty confident in either Pereira decision or later KO.

Perreria gasses as well and the only wrestler he fought was that 145lber who took him down like 5 times or something like that with that said I like perreria dec

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Perreria gasses as well and the only wrestler he fought was that 145lber who took him down like 5 times or something like that with that said I like perreria dec

This is a great point.

Not sure how good his takedown defence will hold up. Perriera has always been huge, so it's easier to maintain good TD if you are the bigger man. I was very high on Perriera when they announced the fight, now I don't know.
I can see a 3 round lay n pray win for Petroski. It might look sloppy with both men tired but Petroski with pure grit pulling off the takedowns and Perriera to tired to get up.

 

[Guld]

This is a great point.

Not sure how good his takedown defence will hold up. Perriera has always been huge, so it's easier to maintain good TD if you are the bigger man. I was very high on Perriera when they announced the fight, now I don't know.
I can see a 3 round lay n pray win for Petroski. It might look sloppy with both men tired but Petroski with pure grit pulling off the takedowns and Perriera to tired to get up.

That's precisely why I'm avoiding a pre-fight bet on that one myself.
I could see Pereira out damage/finish Andre, but I could also see Andre grind his way to a victory.
I'm not sure who will be able to implement their game more effectively, and each round could easily sway to the other fighter.

 

[sonhow]

Composed Perreira takes this with certain level of ease imo. I'm not too high on Petroski.

 

[Stat_Collector]

That's precisely why I'm avoiding a pre-fight bet on that one myself.
I could see Pereira out damage/finish Andre, but I could also see Andre grind his way to a victory.
I'm not sure who will be able to implement their game more effectively, and each round could easily sway to the other fighter.

Michel is a decent grappler himself. not good but decent enough here imo. short notice for Andre too. Meerschaert came close to beating Andre in the late rounds, and Michel is better than both of those guys. I honestly see Michel styling on him to decision or potential late finish.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I like Yanez alot at evens. Martinez shouldve lost to Said and in general this will be a firefight. Both lack strong defense but Yanez is the more dynamic fighter, bigger puncher. Rob Font who I had money on has been top 10 for years in the most loaded division. He wouldve done Martinez the same.

Saimann +130 is a play for me also. His KO/TKO and finish line is wide as hell relative to a points win too....

Edson Sodiq fight ends KO/TKO -135 seems value to me. Sodiq has a bad chin and Edson at his age and weightcut I dont think can go 5 rounds in a striking match against a decent puncher. I think Edson will win and Im gonna take his ML and KO/TKO line too I think fight ends KO/TKO should be -250 range honestly.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Think I like Barboza as a dog.

Sodiq is good but I don't think he has the power to put Barboza away or the wrestling to ground Barboza. Barbozas had a couple of close decisions go against him in the past (I still think he won the Ige fight) but generally he's still an elite striker and the way to beating him generally involves either grounding him or putting a beating on him.

Sodiq may end up being able to hang with him but I think it's a step up for Sodiq and he couldn't make that step up when he last tried against Allen. I was on Barboza against Billy Q (and Hooker way back when) for similar reasons and think I like Barboza in this instance too.

Agreed. The way to beat Edson has historically been pressure with either striking, grappling or combining. Sodiq is not a pressure fighter and cant pressure well even when he tries. He will play the distance striking game, if he leads on front foot he will get cracked with counters.

Sodiqs chin is also sus. Benitez rocked him badly when he opted to trade and pressure him think even dropped him, Fili cracked him once, Arnold dropped him once and cracked him another time had him skating. I think theres potential for another HL reel KO from Edson.

 

[Thesnake101]

Passing on the main event aside an under or FDGTD line. Think whomever wins it'll be a finish.

Also echo everyone else's thoughts on Saimaan, surprised the line is what it is, but I'll take it. Maybe it'll backfire, but I really like his approach and he'll definitely fight tooth and nail, which is something I like in underdogs.

U2.5 in Pereira/Petroski is tempting, even though on paper both guys have made a habit of going deep into fights as of late. Andre's body language when he's tired gives me the feeling he'll crumble against anyone dangerous who can force him to strike, on the flipside, I could see Michel either getting pounded out from mount or choked after trying to explode out of bad positions and gassing.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Irina Alekseeva + Saimann parlayed

Aleksa has a national sambo background and has better pop to her strikes.

She also is coming off a stronger win. I don't understand these lines. Someone clue me in why she isn't the favorite after beating Egger?

I see her just canceling Dixon and pointing her on the feet. Dixon has already tasted defeat several times in the amateurs.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Irina Alekseeva + Saimann parlayed

Aleksa has a national sambo background and has better pop to her strikes.

She also is coming off a stronger win. I don't understand these lines. Someone clue me in why she isn't the favorite after beating Egger?

I see her just canceling Dixon and pointing her on the feet. Dixon has already tasted defeat several times in the amateurs.

Alekseeva was taken down, in some cases multiple times, by lesser grapplers than Dixon on the regional scene. If Dixon is able to get on top she has good top pressure as well as ground and pound. Irina has poor conditioning and will likely tire if Dixon is able to take her down and control her for even part of a round. I have seen Irina begin to noticeably fatigue as early as the sixth minute.

Both Alekseeva and Dixon have been inconsistent on the feet. Neither of them has a meaningful advantage in the striking imo. Irina though I noticed has a problem taking calf kicks, doesn't check them, and has compromised movement as early as the third calf kick absorbed. Dixon throws hard calf kicks.

A lot of folks have only have seen Dixon's last fight where she faced a very good striker, who was later signed by the UFC, and think she doesn't have any striking because of it; her hands looked pretty fast and powerful in this fight:



Dixon is the rightful favorite imo, I cap her at 60%, which is roughly where her betting line is currently at.

 

[BigSteve]

Irina Alekseeva + Saimann parlayed

Aleksa has a national sambo background and has better pop to her strikes.

She also is coming off a stronger win. I don't understand these lines. Someone clue me in why she isn't the favorite after beating Egger?

I see her just canceling Dixon and pointing her on the feet. Dixon has already tasted defeat several times in the amateurs.

Irena is a bit of a meme. Her one loss she hurt the girl, almost finished her then was almost finished with a RNC and a KO in the same fight. I am certain she would have gassed against Egger too she is kill or be killed and that is not going to work at a high level. Egger an absolute flake when it comes to being subbed. Especially if Dixon ends up on top she goes straight to mount and has great GNP. Shes possitionally good too. When fighting the high lvl judoka every judo throw she copped she scrambled on top or got the back.

From a whole fight perspective Irena's path is a meme again I feel and she has the first part of the fight to do it. Dixon is hittable and worse striker although she has never been finished and is a dog, as seen by her comeback in her last Ares fight against a much better striker than Irena. Unders at plus money aint bad and I sprinkled a lil Dixon KO and will look to live bet the rest.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Alekseeva was taken down, in some cases multiple times, by lesser grapplers than Dixon on the regional scene. If Dixon is able to get on top she has good top pressure as well as ground and pound. Irina has poor conditioning and will likely tire if Dixon is able to take her down and control her for even part of a round. I have seen Irina begin to noticeably fatigue as early as the sixth minute.

Both Alekseeva and Dixon have been inconsistent on the feet. Neither of them has a meaningful advantage in the striking imo. Irina though I noticed has a problem taking calf kicks, doesn't check them, and has compromised movement as early as the third calf kick absorbed. Dixon throws hard calf kicks.

A lot of folks have only have seen Dixon's last fight where she faced a very good striker, who was later signed by the UFC, and think she doesn't have any striking because of it; her hands looked pretty fast and powerful in this fight:



Dixon is the rightful favorite imo, I cap her at 60%, which is roughly where her betting line is currently at.

^^^
She did get wobbled in this fight. 9:40 mark

I agree with the leg kick defense, but the out grappled statement. Most of her being on her back in regional mma is due to failed sub attempts. I haven't seen any fight where she got taken down and controlled. She has decent wizard and judo throws. I do believe they have similar strengths on the grappling exchanges. I do think even if she gets down, she can attack a leg lock and get to her feet.

If she goes into brawl mode and burns her tank early she could be in trouble. im trying not to have tunnel vision here, you could be right, i only small sprinkled so im not worried.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Haven't bet in awhile, saw Barboza was a dog and was interested.

I like Sodiq, think he's a pretty talented fighter. I have a hard time seeing him imposing a grappling heavy game plan vs Barboza, I don't think he's capable of closing that distance with enough pressure to stay safe against Barboza. So that leaves it as a striking matchup in my mind, and very few fighters have outstruck Barboza.

To whomever suggested Burgos was winning their fight, the PBP on Sherdog had it 1-1 after 2 rounds before the finish. I can't remember who was winning the 3rd up til the finish, but it was just over 1min into the 3rd so lots of time still left there.

The best guys Sodiq has beaten is who, Fili? Caceres? Obviously Barboza's age/145 weight cut is a question. But he's seemed oddly OK at 145, when he first went down everyone was like 'no way this works out' but it's not been the issue I think most people thought.

Since getting starched by Gaethje, Barboza should probably be 5-2 (personally had it for him vs Ige, Felder). The Mitchell fight was very one sided and Giga managed to beat him up, but I think Sodiq would have problems with those guys too.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Irena is a bit of a meme. Her one loss she hurt the girl, almost finished her then was almost finished with a RNC and a KO in the same fight. I am certain she would have gassed against Egger too she is kill or be killed and that is not going to work at a high level. Egger an absolute flake when it comes to being subbed. Especially if Dixon ends up on top she goes straight to mount and has great GNP. Shes possitionally good too. When fighting the high lvl judoka every judo throw she copped she scrambled on top or got the back.

From a whole fight perspective Irena's path is a meme again I feel and she has the first part of the fight to do it. Dixon is hittable and worse striker although she has never been finished and is a dog, as seen by her comeback in her last Ares fight against a much better striker than Irena. Unders at plus money aint bad and I sprinkled a lil Dixon KO and will look to live bet the rest.

Can you reference the fight with the judokas?

I think a large reason people are picking her as a favorite is due to her beating Darya who is a scrappy striker but has horrid defense
This is Darya going to ww3 with a fighter who is now 4-8




this was her face after the fight with said 4-8 fighter. and the fight was a display of awful defense and striking. So that makes me question if Dixon's ko win was at all special, everything before her win on Darya is low level stuff, and she's lost to some cans herself in amateur days.




Stephenie Eggar may be a flake and i know styles make fights, but a win against a fighter who has been in the ufc and beaten other decent women is better than a win on Darya who has a history of beating padded fighters with average opponent records of 0-0 .

I'm going Irina as the value play.

 

[BigSteve]

Can you reference the fight with the judokas?

I think a large reason people are picking her as a favorite is due to her beating Darya who is a scrappy striker but has horrid defense
This is Darya going to ww3 with a fighter who is now 4-8




this was her face after the fight with said 4-8 fighter. and the fight was a display of awful defense and striking. So that makes me question if Dixon's ko win was at all special, everything before her win on Darya is low level stuff, and she's lost to some cans herself in amateur days.




Stephenie Eggar may be a flake and i know styles make fights, but a win against a fighter who has been in the ufc and beaten other decent women is better than a win on Darya who has a history of beating padded fighters with average opponent records of 0-0 .

I'm going Irina as the value play.

Shes a fav because shes more proven, Irenas only good win is Egger. The Judoka she beat is Rizlen Zouak in Ares.
Mafalda Carmona is also a decent fighter I was going to play her in PFL europe although she pulled out. Dixon mauled her on the ground for 3.

BTW Darya is also in the UFC she was meant to fight Lisboa on this card.