UFC Vegas 81: Yusuff vs. Barboza, October 14

[Jasper_RB81]

I bet Irina for 0.5U. It's not my most confident bet and I can definitely see multiple paths to victory for Dixon.
Most likely path in my view is that she takes Irina down and controls her on the mat for large portions of the fight and either finishes her late or wins a decision. I just can't see Irina having a good takedown defence the way she fights.
I also think Dixon can weather an early storm and beat an exhausted Irina on the feet.

However, I'm betting on Irinas pressure and ability to scramble being to much and just overall game being to much to handle for Dixon. It's not like Irina is a world beater, but I have not been impressed by Dixon. Slight lean on Irina so at plus money I'm happy to take a small shot.

 

[Thesnake101]

Played the sub line for Chairez again, still pissed I missed out on $100 for a $1 parlay due to the NC last time around, hopefully this time there's no fuckery.

Also hope Lacerda doesn't just roll lver and get pounded out, which he could absolutely do since he's such a flake.

 

[Broe.]

I think Lacerda looked pretty good in their first fight tbh. I dont think the huge underdog odds are warranted. I put a small bet on him. I do agree he is a fake. *flake

 

[Stat_Collector]

Shes a fav because shes more proven, Irenas only good win is Egger. The Judoka she beat is Rizlen Zouak in Ares.
Mafalda Carmona is also a decent fighter I was going to play her in PFL europe although she pulled out. Dixon mauled her on the ground for 3.

BTW Darya is also in the UFC she was meant to fight Lisboa on this card.

yeah you guys did a gd job convincing me its closer than it is. I only see what separates Irina from a traditional judoka is she has sambo experience that is more practical for applying judo during striking exchanges and her overall having more standup experience because of it. She pulls the trigger too and can kick to the head with some switch knees. I don’t see her getting stopped tho. She has a secent amount of knowledge to survive unlike the last Russian chick who is a kickboxer.

nm else to add here, its a punt play for sure.

 

[mkess101]

I think Lacerda looked pretty good in their first fight tbh. I dont think the huge underdog odds are warranted. I put a small bet on him. I do agree he is a fake.

He's always live for a round. Ultimate glass cannon. Can hurt pretty much anyone rd 1, but tends to quit when things turn.
I'm playing Chairez under fantasy score on 2 sites. They're basically baking in that Chairez winning in rd 1is a given AND that he'll rack up some points before finishing.

 

[mkess101]

Played the sub line for Chairez again, still pissed I missed out on $100 for a $1 parlay due to the NC last time around, hopefully this time there's no fuckery.

Also hope Lacerda doesn't just roll lver and get pounded out, which he could absolutely do since he's such a flake.

The thing is, that choke really wasn't gonna end the fight. He didn't have proper leverage, Lacerda was relaxing and waiting out Chairez burning out his arms which is what you should do in that spot.

Chairez may have subbed him later obviously, but without the ref fuck up, he wasn't gonna get it there imo.

 

[Thesnake101]

The thing is, that choke really wasn't gonna end the fight. He didn't have proper leverage, Lacerda was relaxing and waiting out Chairez burning out his arms which is what you should do in that spot.

Chairez may have subbed him later obviously, but without the ref fuck up, he wasn't gonna get it there imo.

I don't disagree, but I think it was heading there with the gameplan Lacerda employed. Edgar favors subs already, so that outcome seemed like a foregone conclusion that night.

Thinks might be different now if Lacerda does his usual wild striking approach, since he leaves himself so open that any clean shot could take his legs out from under him, or if Edgar doesn't want to risk another near-miss and decides to just bash his head in.

I'll admit I am writing off Lacerda on this one, hard to see a flyweight gas cannon with no cardio beat a durable guy who's been in there with more talented prospects and taken rounds off them.

 

[mkess101]

I don't disagree, but I think it was heading there with the gameplan Lacerda employed. Edgar favors subs already, so that outcome seemed like a foregone conclusion that night.

Thinks might be different now if Lacerda does his usual wild striking approach, since he leaves himself so open that any clean shot could take his legs out from under him, or if Edgar doesn't want to risk another near-miss and decides to just bash his head in.

I'll admit I am writing off Lacerda on this one, hard to see a flyweight gas cannon with no cardio beat a durable guy who's been in there with more talented prospects and taken rounds off them.

Yeah and obviously odds reflect that. I favor Chairez for sure, but probably not by this much. Lacerda has hurt almost everyone he's faced, and iirc a couple of those fights could've been stopped and there wouldn't have been a lot to complain about. He's dangerous AF...for 5 minutes.

I'm not betting the fight, just playing the fantasy angle because I think the sites have Chairez set too high. He can get a first round finish and very possibly still not cover his score.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I think Lacerda looked pretty good in their first fight tbh. I dont think the huge underdog odds are warranted. I put a small bet on him. I do agree he is a fake.

I thought lacerda looked very poor. He was getting volume gapped on the feet, and some people thought going into the fight that he would have success on the ground if he gets on top but chairez was able to get up right away. He then did another td attempt more sloppy and got caught in a guilly. It basically looked like he was trying to phase himself to be able to last longer but it wasn't working out and I could see the meltdown coming. I trust chairez durability and cardio way more than lacerda, and his striking is actually pretty decent. Lacerda should go balls to the walls and hope for a quick finish, this phasing himself approach isn't going to work out imo.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

He's always live for a round. Ultimate glass cannon. Can hurt pretty much anyone rd 1, but tends to quit when things turn.
I'm playing Chairez under fantasy score on 2 sites. They're basically baking in that Chairez winning in rd 1is a given AND that he'll rack up some points before finishing.

i was thinking about playing over 5 mins for similar reasons, the trajectory of the first fight was going over and i expect a similar fight more or less.

 

[Thesnake101]

I thought lacerda looked very poor. He was getting volume gapped on the feet, and some people thought going into the fight that he would have success on the ground if he gets on top but chairez was able to get up right away. He then did another td attempt more sloppy and got caught in a guilly. It basically looked like he was trying to phase himself to be able to last longer but it wasn't working out and I could see the meltdown coming. I trust chairez durability and cardio way more than lacerda, and his striking is actually pretty decent. Lacerda should go balls to the walls and hope for a quick finish, this phasing himself approach isn't going to work out imo.

He had said in the lead up to the fight that he was going to try to fight smarter, but obviously that's not really the way to go when you're not exactly a technically proficient guy. He got by on the regional circuit by overwhelming guys, which obviously didn't translate in the UFC but it's still his only viable option since his skills aren't much to write home about.

Yeah and obviously odds reflect that. I favor Chairez for sure, but probably not by this much. Lacerda has hurt almost everyone he's faced, and iirc a couple of those fights could've been stopped and there wouldn't have been a lot to complain about. He's dangerous AF...for 5 minutes.

I'm not betting the fight, just playing the fantasy angle because I think the sites have Chairez set too high. He can get a first round finish and very possibly still not cover his score.

I hear you, but I honestly feel the line is accurate. Guy with 100% finish rate, proficient grappling, never been KO'd and good cardio? That spells doom for Daniel. Your under should be fine unless we get a repeat of the Altamirano fight though.

 

[mkess101]

He had said in the lead up to the fight that he was going to try to fight smarter, but obviously that's not really the way to go when you're not exactly a technically proficient guy. He got by on the regional circuit by overwhelming guys, which obviously didn't translate in the UFC but it's still his only viable option since his skills aren't much to write home about.

I hear you, but I honestly feel the line is accurate. Guy with 100% finish rate, proficient grappling, never been KO'd and good cardio? That spells doom for Daniel. Your under should be fine unless we get a repeat of the Altamirano fight though.

Yeah or the Vergara fight. Which is the risk, but even then...both those fights legit could've been stopped with Lacerda winning by TKO.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Periera sub2 +2900 and sub3 +5000.
An exhausted Petroski shots a sloppy takedown and Periera snatches up his 7th submission.

 

[Thesnake101]

Fat fuck Rodriguez missed weight again. 140lbs this time.

 

[rev0lver]

Yeah or the Vergara fight. Which is the risk, but even then...both those fights legit could've been stopped with Lacerda winning by TKO.

Yeah I wanna say that I was incredibly confident on Vergara there and went heavy. Had a heart attack through the whole first round. No one should doubt how live Lacerda is in rd 1, even on durable guys.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I wanna say that I was incredibly confident on Vergara there and went heavy. Had a heart attack through the whole first round. No one should doubt how live Lacerda is in rd 1, even on durable guys.

Haha yep.

And then if the opponent survives those 5 minutes, Lacerda immediately goes from utter savage to cannon fodder LOL.

 

[mkess101]

Fat fuck Rodriguez missed weight again. 140lbs this time.

Fight off? I fucking hope not, have his TD prop in 2 plays on PP at 0.5. I'm confident he gets at least one...

 

[Pappetta]

Fight off? I fucking hope not, have his TD prop in 2 plays on PP at 0.5. I'm confident he gets at least one...

Nah fights on

 

[mkess101]

Nah fights on

Nice. Those extra 5 lbs gonna help him bully Saimon to the mat one time.

After that I don't care what happens, Saimon can KO him stiff or whatever. I just need Rodriguez to get one takedown.

 

[sonhow]

Lacerda out