Alright just finished watching tape on Ottow and Li and here's my writeup:
Zak Ottow has been fighting professionally since 2012, but somehow looks older than his 30 years. Maybe it's the years spent playing college football, or the years spent juggling fighting in regionals while running his own gym and managing a fight promotion. Without a big win against a quality opponent, he didn't seem like a fighter that would make it to the UFC any time soon.
Still, Ottow got his opportunity to fight in the big show as a late notice replacement for Bobby Green over a year ago to face Josh Burkman. Although originally a LW bout for Burkman, the fight was held at WW. Even though it was 2 weeks notice for Ottow, he was already preparing for a fight for the next weekend in Legacy FC. Though Ottow came away with the win, it was a competitive fight where a takedown or combo landed could've swayed a round in either's favor. It was also a fight against a LW fighter in Burkman who would go on to lose his next two fights in the first round to bring his record over the last 7 fights to 1-6.
Always game, Ottow accepted a fight in Brazil against BJJ world champion Sergio Moraes. Despite being pretty close to a grappling specialist, Moraes chose to strike with Ottow in the last two rounds, and won the decision with really ugly looping counter punches that would come at odd angles and tag Ottow coming in. In the third round, Moraes landed maybe the most significant blow of the match, timing a naked leg kick and stumbling Ottow with a straight right. Earlier, a naked leg kick led to Ottow being taken down and laid upon for the whole first round.
In his 3rd fight, Ottow won a comfortable decision against Kuichi Kunimoto, landing some compact straight punches and kicks to control the standup exchanges. Ottow won the 2nd round with his grappling, but was put on his back in the beginning of the 3rd and didn't get up until a few seconds before the end of the match.
Though winning 2 out of 3 of his UFC fights, it seems as if Ottow has barely scraped by in the big leagues. He is a technically sound striker who doesn't get too wild, but lacks power to seriously threaten any of his opponents (he has 1 TKO victory in his last 15 fights and that was against an undersized opponent). His lack of head movement and inability to slip out of the pocket after throwing his single or at most doubled up shots means he is hittable and can be countered. He appears to be a competent grappler but doesn't appear to be very strong and can be controlled for long periods of time on his back.
All of the above weaknesses will play into the strengths of Li Jingliang. Li is 5-2 in the UFC, but has faced mostly weak UFC competition with the exception of Nordine Taleb (who most fans believe he beat), and a very game Frank Camacho (although Camacho's quality wasn't well known before the fight). Still, what we've seen from Li so far indicates that he'll be a tough matchup for Ottow.
In the grappling department, Li has shown good strength in the clinch, solid defensive wrestling, and powerful ground strikes. Though he earned his nickname "the Leech" by being a tenacious grinder, in his last few fights, he's turned into and powerful striker in his last few fights. Though he has shown good head movement, and even some flashes of brilliance with slip counters, he's still hittable at times, eating otherwise fight ending power shots from Bobby Nash and Frank Camacho. Luckily his chin is ironclad and has held up.
Offensively, Li has shown pretty nice timing and counters. Against a naked leg kick by Nash, he timed a strong right straight right down the pipe. This same right hand would later land flush on Nash's chin and eventually lead to a KO. In the Camacho fight, he would land it several times from distance. He can get a bit creative at times, stepping in with uppercuts to split the guard of his opponents.
It's really hard to see where Ottow has an advantage in this fight. Ottow doesn't have the power to scare Li off, nor does he put together enough strikes in combination (as Li's head movement is usually good enough to slip the first couple of strikes, but can be caught by a 3rd or 4th). If the looping wide punches of Moraes can land against a stationary Ottow, the much more powerful, straighter, and better-timed punches of Li should catch Ottow more often and with more of an impact. If Moraes can time Ottow's naked kicks for takedowns and counters, than Li can do the same as well.
Thinking about this matchup, Ottow seems like the perfect opponent for Li to show off his skills without really being threatened. Given that the fight will be in Shanghai, one might think that the favorable matchup is intentional given the large and untapped Chinese market. Li is the favorite sitting at -170 but given the matchup and the home soil advantage, I think there may still be some value there.
