UFN 122 - Silva vs Gastelum - China

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Wow this overconfidence on Gastelum is disrespectful. The guy is a fat welterweight and his frame is very small for middleweight, he's smaller than GSP. By far, Bisping's smallest opponent.

Bisping taking this fight on short notice but he won a world title on short notice. Bisping has also never lost back to back fights in his career.

If Bisping shows up in good form, Gastelum is going to be in a tough fight. Woudn't be confident in Gastelum finishing either. The height and reach could give Gastelum problems, again he's not a real middleweight.

Bisping is a high output striker and his good at winning rounds, no one dominates him on the feet.

Where the line is now, it's dog or pass. I could understand taking -200 on Gastelum but -300 FOH

 

[Stunna77]

Wow this overconfidence on Gastelum is disrespectful. The guy is a fat welterweight and his frame is very small for middleweight, he's smaller than GSP. By far, Bisping's smallest opponent.

Bisping taking this fight on short notice but he won a world title on short notice. Bisping has also never lost back to back fights in his career.

If Bisping shows up in good form, Gastelum is going to be in a tough fight. Woudn't be confident in Gastelum finishing either. The height and reach could give Gastelum problems, again he's not a real middleweight.

Bisping is a high output striker and his good at winning rounds, no one dominates him on the feet.

Where the line is now, it's dog or pass. I could understand taking -200 on Gastelum but -300 FOH

Kennedy, Vitor, and Weidman are all full sized MW's who Kelvin stopped or damn near stopped (Weidman probably saved by bell) and none of them had been previously dropped and choked unconcious three weeks prior (by a ww coming off a 4-year layoff and never known for punching power), spent the next week binge drinking and then hopped on a plane to China with no preperation. Tough to see a prime, in-form Bisping showing up here.

GSP is GOAT so not downplaying that, but point still stands that Bisping is clearly declining and frankly probably shouldn't even be cleared to fight.

 

[Oblivian]

I actually like the fight doesn't go to decision line. I think Gastelum finished most of the time here, and I think Bisping is going to go for it fighting on short notice.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Kennedy, Vitor, and Weidman are all full sized MW's who Kelvin stopped or damn near stopped (Weidman probably saved by bell) and none of them had been previously dropped and choked unconcious three weeks prior (by a ww coming off a 4-year layoff and never known for punching power), spent the next week binge drinking and then hopped on a plane to China with no preperation. Tough to see a prime, in-form Bisping showing up here.

GSP is GOAT so not downplaying that, but point still stands that Bisping is clearly declining and frankly probably shouldn't even be cleared to fight.

All of Gastelum's MW fights are against fighters that are shot or past their prime.

Bisping's circumstances are concerning but as long as he's not injured and he's in 5 round shape, then there is not a huge issue.

This really isn't a bad match up for Bisping, stylistically he matches up well with Gatelum and the size will be a factor.

I'm not saying play Bisping but the odds are wide

I was all about playing Gastelum at +130 against a shot Kennedy but -300 against a warrior like Bisping, No

 

[Stunna77]

I actually like the fight doesn't go to decision line. I think Gastelum finished most of the time here, and I think Bisping is going to go for it fighting on short notice.

For the small difference between the fight doesn't go distance (-190) and Gas ITD (-161) I would probably agree.

 

[Oblivian]

All of Gastelum's MW fights are against fighters that are shot or past their prime.

Bisping's circumstances are concerning but as long as he's not injured and he's in 5 round shape, then there is not a huge issue.

This really isn't a bad match up for Bisping, stylistically he matches up well with Gatelum and the size will be a factor.

I'm not saying play Bisping but the odds are wide

I was all about playing Gastelum at +130 against a shot Kennedy but -300 against a warrior like Bisping, No

I was one of the few on GSP over Bisping. I honestly think he's "shot or past his prime" to use your words. He was massively overvalued in his last two fights due to the KO over Rockhold. Gastelum without a doubt holds the power edge and I think Bisping is very hittable. Bisping's reactions standing just don't seem there anymore.

 

[MacPherson911]

Very much agree was coming in here to say that after watching a few fights. Wang is my cosmic value dog play of the card so far.

Same here...dude is legit

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

I was one of the few on GSP over Bisping. I honestly think he's "shot or past his prime" to use your words. He was massively overvalued in his last two fights due to the KO over Rockhold. Gastelum without a doubt holds the power edge and I think Bisping is very hittable. Bisping's reactions standing just don't seem there anymore.

Yeah you might be right but I still don't think it warrants -300

 

[MacPherson911]

You guys think ottow can grind out leech for another split dec?

No Li is gonna piece him up on the feet

 

[Stunna77]

All of Gastelum's MW fights are against fighters that are shot or past their prime.

Bisping's circumstances are concerning but as long as he's not injured and he's in 5 round shape, then there is not a huge issue.

This really isn't a bad match up for Bisping, stylistically he matches up well with Gatelum and the size will be a factor.

I'm not saying play Bisping but the odds are wide

I was all about playing Gastelum at +130 against a shot Kennedy but -300 against a warrior like Bisping, No

That isn't changing here...

Also Bisping clearly isn't 100% healthy after GSP Fight (plus he said he hurt himself towards the end of GSP camp where he couldn't move his torso) or in the best shape after admittingly drinking for 7 days straight after the loss.

Edit - O beat me to it....Was with you on GSP though O, have been looking to fade Bisping since the Rockhold fight.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Wow this overconfidence on Gastelum is disrespectful. The guy is a fat welterweight and his frame is very small for middleweight, he's smaller than GSP. By far, Bisping's smallest opponent.

Bisping taking this fight on short notice but he won a world title on short notice. Bisping has also never lost back to back fights in his career.

His lack of size at MW hasn't been that much of an issue, with the exception when he got out-grappled by Weidman, which isn't really Bisping m.o. and I don't think he will be able to consistently take KG down either.

And he beat an overconfident Rockhold who didn't respect his hands, who also happened to hold the belt. The short notice isn't going to give him an advantage here. He's typically a grinder and he needs cardio and preparation for that. And I don't understand the argument of 'he never lost two in a row so odds are it's not gonna happen now', neither did Ross Pearson until.... he lost 4 in a row. And if you want to get technical, most people thought he lost to Hamill at the time, so that would make back to back losses if you combine that with his loss to Rashad Evans. But again, whatever perceived win-loss pattern he has, it isn't going to have any effect on his upcoming fight with KG.

 

[t6p]

I think bisping has some advantages that are not quantifiable on paper so much these might sound 'lame' but experience i think could play a factor here. Kelvin is a ww who ate his way out of the division do we trust him to make the proper preparations fighting in china main event with jet lag etc with short notice different opponent...also lets not forget kelvin lost to a MW that almost everyone in the forum considers shot. And are still looking to fade him in the future..also bisping seems to thrive on the underdog role.. I think he can implement a stick n move strategy to a UD or maybe split dec and lastly his price hes almost +300
All in all i give bisping advantages in
- size
- experience
- toughness
- cardio
I simply cannot trust the overweight WW at -3××
I cap this around kelvin -160 ish

I agree with some of your points. Yes, Gastelum's work ethic/dedication can be questioned and Bisping is as tough as they come/doesn't fade in fights/other intangibles/etc. But to counter some of your other arguments, the MW that Gas lost to who people consider shot (Weidman) is a completely different stylistic matchup than Bisping. Chris is a massive MW and an elite wrestler with a good submission game.

Also, I'm not sure that Bisping has the cardio advantage. I've never seen Gas fade, he went 5 hard rounds with Magny and was coming on very strong at the end. Likewise in the third round of the Kennedy fight (a guy who was able to manhandle Bisping for 5 rounds btw).

I won't say that Gas is "tougher" than Bisping, but I certainly think he has the better chin at this stage. Gas ate some of Woodley's best shots (I think the Story fight was the only time I've even seen him stunned), while Bisping has recently been dropped by Silva, Hendo and GSP.

I guess the x-factor is if Bisping decides to wrestle like he has a handful of times, the Stann and Wanderlei fights come to mind. I think it's unlikely though, since it's not something he's done in a long time and I don't think he can keep Kelvin down for long stretches anyway.

Anyway, I get why people want to bet Bisping, he's come up big in these spots before. But I think current odds are accurate enough to where I'm not betting either side.

 

[MT6ix]

Just finished tape as well and agree with most of your points. I think the line should probably be a bit tighter tho, especially in China. On the feet this should be very competetive, cacaeres more varied in his attacks, wang with the power advantage and most likely forward pressure. His tdd leaves some to be desired but don't see that being a big issue here and his sub defense has looked pretty decent. To be fair he was fighting some decent wrestlers (magomedov - Dagestani beast and Sakerov - Russian tank) and was still able to push off the hips and explode up. I expect his tdd and overall game to show some improvements after spending camp at ATT. I see this mainly playing out on the feet where Wang will absolutely have opportunities as Bruce Leroy is hittable in exchanges. At +155 I think Wang is the right side.

You see it exactly the way I do. Watching those fights where he was taken down, he has heart and as I mentioned he will fight for your money. I also like the fact he is training at ATT because he knows he has to get better, he has to be at a better camp and spar/train with better fighters. I see it as a dog or pass or maybe even the over 2.5. I'm just advocating that I would keep it as a small bet on Wang because you never know which Bruce Leroy will show up too and first time in the Octagon for Wang.

As a comparison but definitely not an apples to apples comparison, when Conor McGregor first fought in the octagon against Marcus Brimage, he closed as a +140-150 underdog but watching tape between the two, the levels of striking was worlds apart between the two, favouring Conor when we knew that fight was going to be contested on the feet and Marcus Brimage had a tendency to get rocked in a lot of fights. This fight will be pretty competitive on the feet like you mentioned and if there is no knockout, whoever throws more volume will most likely win, not buying into winning by a robbery decision probability.

 

[wack3d]

You guys think ottow can grind out leech for another split dec?

yes for sure Leech's TDD is not very good.. but even though i thought Ottow won all his ufc fights pretty clearly his style is just not very judge friendly and with the fight being in Leech's backyard it makes it scary to bet Ottow

i will take a small stab on Ottow DEC +285 i think

 

[piglord]

yes for sure Leech's TDD is not very good.. but even though i thought Ottow won all his ufc fights pretty clearly his style is just not very judge friendly and with the fight being in Leech's backyard it makes it scary to bet Ottow

i will take a small stab on Ottow DEC +285 i think

man i was big on ottow against kunimoto and it was definitely too close for comfort.

i think if ottow is unable to take li down and hold him down for long periods, he's going to eat some huge shots from the faster, more fluid and powerful striker.

to me this fight looks setup to make li look good at home.

 

[Barkus]

Also, I'm not sure that Bisping has the cardio advantage. I've never seen Gas fade, he went 5 hard rounds with Magny and was coming on very strong at the end. Likewise in the third round of the Kennedy fight (a guy who was able to manhandle Bisping for 5 rounds btw).

I think Kelvin's cardio is superior. Kelvin took rounds 4 and 5 over Magny, who is a cardio machine. Bisping has elite cardio, but still slows down in wars. Usually it's to his advantage because the other guy was gassing harder. I don't think that will be the case here.

He also won't have been able train to peak cardio for this fight due to it being short notice, and is coming off a week of drinking, so it's likely his cardio won't be as good as it usually is.

 

[SBJJ]

This fight was over 4 years ago and early in his MMA career

Can you provide some tape of him stuffing some LEGIT takedowns since then?

LW Ivan Jorge is his best win

 

[Sadistics]

Xiaonan Yan
Trains at China Top Team, Sanda base

Vs Emi Fujino (21-10, #1 P4P female in Japan) - November 19, 2016



Vs So Hee Lim (1-1) - April 16th, 2016



Vs Ye Hyun Nam (0-2) - December 26, 2015



Vs Dolores Meek (0-3) - July 25, 2015



Couldn't find her fight with Munkhgerel Bayarmaa from Oct 30th 2015, everything else is from 2010 or earlier

 

[Papi]

I agree with some of your points. Yes, Gastelum's work ethic/dedication can be questioned and Bisping is as tough as they come/doesn't fade in fights/other intangibles/etc. But to counter some of your other arguments, the MW that Gas lost to who people consider shot (Weidman) is a completely different stylistic matchup than Bisping. Chris is a massive MW and an elite wrestler with a good submission game.

Also, I'm not sure that Bisping has the cardio advantage. I've never seen Gas fade, he went 5 hard rounds with Magny and was coming on very strong at the end. Likewise in the third round of the Kennedy fight (a guy who was able to manhandle Bisping for 5 rounds btw).

I won't say that Gas is "tougher" than Bisping, but I certainly think he has the better chin at this stage. Gas ate some of Woodley's best shots (I think the Story fight was the only time I've even seen him stunned), while Bisping has recently been dropped by Silva, Hendo and GSP.

I guess the x-factor is if Bisping decides to wrestle like he has a handful of times, the Stann and Wanderlei fights come to mind. I think it's unlikely though, since it's not something he's done in a long time and I don't think he can keep Kelvin down for long stretches anyway.

Anyway, I get why people want to bet Bisping, he's come up big in these spots before. But I think current odds are accurate enough to where I'm not betting either side.

Good points man..what do you think bisping would have to get to odds wise for you to consider him having value and making a bet on him?

 

[Papi]

Wow this overconfidence on Gastelum is disrespectful. The guy is a fat welterweight and his frame is very small for middleweight, he's smaller than GSP. By far, Bisping's smallest opponent.

Bisping taking this fight on short notice but he won a world title on short notice. Bisping has also never lost back to back fights in his career.

If Bisping shows up in good form, Gastelum is going to be in a tough fight. Woudn't be confident in Gastelum finishing either. The height and reach could give Gastelum problems, again he's not a real middleweight.

Bisping is a high output striker and his good at winning rounds, no one dominates him on the feet.

Where the line is now, it's dog or pass. I could understand taking -200 on Gastelum but -300 FOH

I agree clear dog or pass imo