UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Karmello, Jul 7, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,592
    Likes Received:
    8,504
    People regained their sanity? As soon as it was announced I thought "Mendes -200 makes sense." People bet him up to -315 or whatever and I was about to play Jury when the line started shifting the other way. So I got greedy and was waiting for Mendes to climb back near -300 to play Jury. But...odds dictate plays. Jury has been overbet now imo. At current odds Mendes is the play.
     
    Ham Socks likes this.
  2. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    2,718
    I pulled the trigger a bit early on Mendes at -165 and added at -145. Have 2u -161 and can't go above that given the layoff. Unless his chin is shot (which the layoff would actually help in theory) this is a tough matchup for Jury, who usually relies on his wrestling.
     
    edole likes this.
  3. Karmello

    Karmello Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2017
    Messages:
    1,620
    Likes Received:
    983
    Ok at -145 I take a shot at 3 year layoff Mini Mendes. He has a clear path to victory and psychically he's looking in great shape. Can't go to big though, who knows if the ringrust plays a factor or if he'll gas but at -145 I take a shot.
     
  4. BatBoyJG

    BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2010
    Messages:
    3,475
    Likes Received:
    1,215
    Location:
    NYC
    Jury fights too timid for me to want to bet him. At the same time I do see an avenue for him to be successful vs Mendes.

    Apart from McGregor Jury is the longest guy that Mendes has fought. Coupled with Jury being a very good grappler & being extremely well rounded I can see him being able to counter Mendes well both with his own attributes (Mendes is obviously the more athletic of the two) and his depth in skill.

    That Glenn fight though was so uninspiring that I just can’t play Jury, but this is no cake walk fight for Mendes imo. Very interested to see how this fight plays out, especially if these two start grappling.
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,592
    Likes Received:
    8,504
    Jury's striking is technically okay I guess, but he lacks speed and conviction when he throws. You're right in that he wants to force grappling exchanges, but when he faced another legit grappling threat in Cerrone, he got spanked. Yes that was at LW but I think that while Jury is a solid grappler, he's not elite by any stretch.

    This fight is so much more a referendum on what Mendes is coming off the layoff and now dealing with USADA than it is about Jury. Mendes that hasn't dropped off a ton should handle Jury. We just don't know for sure if he's close to what he was. But at -155 I'm willing to take that gamble on the clearly more talented guy.
     
    bet the house and Stunna77 like this.
  6. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    39,156
    Likes Received:
    7,895
    Location:
    Merica
    I'm curious what people would cap Mendes/Jury at if Mendes did not have a layoff/USADA issue.
     
  7. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    2,718
    Mendes -300 seems right. Guy went toe to toe with prime Aldo for 5 rounds, demolished Lamas, Guida, Elkins. Has only lost to the elite of the elite.
     
    t6p, Oblivian and mkess101 like this.
  8. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,592
    Likes Received:
    8,504
    Yep exactly what I'd cap it.
     
    Oblivian likes this.
  9. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2006
    Messages:
    39,156
    Likes Received:
    7,895
    Location:
    Merica
    That's similar to where I'd have it, if not a shade higher. I mentioned this earlier, but I think these unknowns should affect bet sizing more than anything. To me, it's hard to argue with the value on Mendes unless you put a lot of stock into an unknown.
     
    Stunna77 likes this.
  10. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    3,616
    Likes Received:
    1,992
    Wonder if mendes is having a bad weight cut

    First fight not being able to use ivs

    I’m wondering if there’s some insider info that caused his line to drop 150 points overnight
     
    edole likes this.
  11. edole

    edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    3,928
    Likes Received:
    691
    Location:
    TR
    Good point.

    I would probably put him around -200 if there were no lay off.

    I am a little concerned about his chin. Edgar flattened him in his last fight, and Edgar doesn't have that kind of power in his strikes.
     
  12. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    2,718
    Exactly my feelings which is why I stopped at 2u, Mendes -145 would be a max bet for me pre layoff/USADA concerns.
     
  13. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    2,718
    True, and the chin is a concern after Aldo/McGregor fights, but Frankie sat down on that hook and landed clean to the jaw. The three year layoff could be a positive in that regard.
     
    Naught2Sixty likes this.
  14. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,592
    Likes Received:
    8,504
    Also, I'm not sure I've ever seen Jury throw a punch as hard as the one Frankie hit Mendes with. Maybe he has, but I sure can't remember it.

    Frankie isn't known as a power puncher but that's more due to the style he's chosen after the 2 wars with Maynard. That was before Gray's chin was shot and Frankie put him away with hard shots. I think Frankie most likely has a lot more power than Jury, but chooses to be elusive and hard to hit over throwing with big power.
     
    Stunna77 and edole like this.
  15. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    2,418
    Likes Received:
    3,353
    Location:
    Wash
    I would stab a guy in front of his own mama to put a max bet on Mendes at anything less than -300 pre layoff.
     
    Ham Socks, 2bet and Stunna77 like this.
  16. edole

    edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    3,928
    Likes Received:
    691
    Location:
    TR
    100 pct.

    It's hard for me to be confident either way though.

    Some people see the lay off as a huge issue, but for someone as talented as Mendes, I think it's a positive if anything. Hes still only 33.
     
  17. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2017
    Messages:
    1,422
    Likes Received:
    1,914
    Location:
    Spain
    1 week away from the fight his weight was 155

    Edit: He is uploading daily vlogs on his youtube chanel, you can watch them if you want to know how he looks and how he is preparing for the fight.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2018
    TheOneTrueKing, ill800 and Sadistics like this.
  18. Larthus

    Larthus Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    163
    Likes Received:
    120
    I'm pretty certain Myles Jury is going to win decisively. He's back with Alliance isn't he? Yeah, after this fight people will be high on Jury because of his strong performance. Like, montage level performance where Joe Rogan says something along the lines of "he made easy work of chad mendes who went punch for punch with some of the best fighters of all-time"

    Post-USADA fighters are a huge question mark. For example, I would've max bet pre-usada renan barao against just about anyone but now I can't trust him against mid-tier competition. I don't trust chadworth
     
  19. edole

    edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    3,928
    Likes Received:
    691
    Location:
    TR
    Call me crazy, but .... for some reason, I actually believe that Mendes got popped as a result of his Psoriasis cream.

    In the limited recent pictures I've seen of him, hes still a tank.
     
    Stunna77 likes this.
  20. TheWobbler

    TheWobbler Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2015
    Messages:
    3,242
    Likes Received:
    4,715
    ATM I'm at:

    zingano 1/1
    said 5/8
    JDS 10/17
    Jury 7/5

    Parlay total is 11/1
     
    Kowboy Karl likes this.

Share This Page