UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa

[Kyle Stephens]

Maybe his vision wasnt damaged and thats why he didnt complain

He seemed fine, but still I don't get him. Li was using all kinds of illegal shit to get an advantage. Worse than Romero on his worst behaviour.

Guys, wasn't Mathews coached by his father form young age? I think this is the case of parent wanting to live his dreams through his child. It does not seem that Jake really wants to be an MMA fighter. He does not have "IT" in him. He does not have the fighting spirit if you will. Something is odd here. He really is too nice of a guy. I know a lot of nice guys fighting, but they are not nice in the octagon. They are competitive to the bone and ruthless. Jake is trying so hard to be somebody that he really in his core is not. I think his father pushed him into this career without Jake being really invested himself.
Purely speculating, but we've seen a number of examples in this and usually is not ending well.

Wonderboy Thompson is one of the few successful examples. He is another uber nice fella. You can see in the way he talks and even fights, that he is not feeling it. He much rather be in his karate school teaching young kids the way of the martial art, then be in the octagon. I can see it in his eyes. He is a competitor, he will do the job as well as he can do it, but he does not have "IT".

Just speculating, I don't know if this is in fact the case, just thinking.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

I am surprised at some of the comments here.
This Willis has good boxing and TDs?
I haven't seen that and he has fought nobodies.

Hunt might soon be wearing diapers, but he has faced top competition and one punch KOed a few much tougher guys. The power in his hands has not left his body. Yes he is totally unreliable but against a shit-tier fighter like Willis, I give him like 60-70% chances of winning.

Fair enough for the +100 I got. I would not have paid him as a favourite though, but seriously I think that this is decent value.

 

[Shoulder]

I am surprised at some of the comments here.
This Willis has good boxing and TDs?
I haven't seen that and he has fought nobodies.

Hunt might soon be wearing diapers, but he has faced top competition and one punch KOed a few much tougher guys. The power in his hands has not left his body. Yes he is totally unreliable but against a shit-tier fighter like Willis, I give him like 60-70% chances of winning.

Fair enough for the +100 I got. I would not have paid him as a favourite though, but seriously I think that this is decent value.

I agree, just put a unit on him. He looked bad last fight, but Willis is no world beater and if it’s Hunts last fight I’m sure he will be motivated.

 

[Gugabe]

He seemed fine, but still I don't get him. Li was using all kinds of illegal shit to get an advantage. Worse than Romero on his worst behaviour.

Guys, wasn't Mathews coached by his father form young age? I think this is the case of parent wanting to live his dreams through his child. It does not seem that Jake really wants to be an MMA fighter. He does not have "IT" in him. He does not have the fighting spirit if you will. Something is odd here. He really is too nice of a guy. I know a lot of nice guys fighting, but they are not nice in the octagon. They are competitive to the bone and ruthless. Jake is trying so hard to be somebody that he really in his core is not. I think his father pushed him into this career without Jake being really invested himself.
Purely speculating, but we've seen a number of examples in this and usually is not ending well.

Wonderboy Thompson is one of the few successful examples. He is another uber nice fella. You can see in the way he talks and even fights, that he is not feeling it. He much rather be in his karate school teaching young kids the way of the martial art, then be in the octagon. I can see it in his eyes. He is a competitor, he will do the job as well as he can do it, but he does not have "IT".

Just speculating, I don't know if this is in fact the case, just thinking.

Yeah. I was in the arena for Velickovic-Matthews and you could hear his dad going nuts on him. Youth sports flashbacks.

Also fairly sure that he... changed up his supplement routine sometime between the Velickovic and Li fights. In like 70 days he goes from being a normal sized WW to insanely fucking jacked. And that was as a dude who was pretty ripped the entire time and clearly was no stranger to a gym.

https://www.gannett-cdn.com/usatsimg/image/thumb/660-495nw/10419759.jpg Last November

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U-h...orus_image/image/58651459/916405774.jpg.0.jpg This Febuary

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Hunts last fight I’m sure he will be motivated.

This is pure speculating. You don't base this on real life evidence.

Hunt has a ton of losses. He does not give a shit what type of bad style match-up they offer him, as long as he gets paid (Diaz bro style), that is one of the reasons. Other is that he is slow, plodding fighter who fights in bursts and nowadays mainly on the counter because he does not have the reach or dynamism to close the distance quickly.

The only reason you saw Willis in kinda bad light in his last fight was that he face the rare heavyweight with cardio. Say what you want about Sherman, but he has a ton of cardio (for HW). Willis was confused what to do in the thai clinch, too. I think tired or not, this is a weak area for almost every HW because you don't get to spar everyday with HWs that can get you in good thai clinch, most of them know just how to box.

Hunt won't have the cardio like Sherman at all. Maybe as durable chin as him, maybe not. We'll see. Willis is a southpaw, which is going to emphasize his reach advantage even more, he has 5-6 inches more on Hunt. Just facing the opposing stance extends the distance between fighters. And Willis is actively trying to fight long. And he is doing well at it I think.

One last thing that I'll say is that Willis' sparing partners are legends like Cain and DC, and Hunt is with Tiger MT and guys like Tuivasa.

Guys, at the beginning of the week I was ready to argue the main fights of the both events, are not good for betting on either of the sides. You made me rethink my position. I agreed that the favourites in these fights are deserving favourites. Me, personally still won't get near either of these fights, but I see your side. RDA have to overcome hard match-up disadvantage to win, Tuivasa has 5 minutes to make his point. You are asking a lot from them in this fights.

But kind of unexpectedly, for another fight that I thought was 50/50, from additional tape watching I came to the conclusion Willis is gonna take a decision from Hunt. He is gonna outwork him from distance. You can go outside for a smoke during that fight, won't be too entertaining.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

This is pure speculating. You don't base this on real life evidence.

Hunt has a ton of losses. He does not give a shit what type of bad style match-up they offer him, as long as he gets paid (Diaz bro style), that is one of the reasons. Other is that he is slow, plodding fighter who fights in bursts and nowadays mainly on the counter because he does not have the reach or dynamism to close the distance quickly.

The only reason you saw Willis in kinda bad light in his last fight was that he face the rare heavyweight with cardio. Say what you want about Sherman, but he has a ton of cardio (for HW). Willis was confused what to do in the thai clinch, too. I think tired or not, this is a weak area for almost every HW because you don't get to spar everyday with HWs that can get you in good thai clinch, most of them know just how to box.

Hunt won't have the cardio like Sherman at all. Maybe as durable chin as him, maybe not. We'll see. Willis is a southpaw, which is going to emphasize his reach advantage even more, he has 5-6 inches more on Hunt. Just facing the opposing stance extends the distance between fighters. And Willis is actively trying to fight long. And he is doing well at it I think.

One last thing that I'll say is that Willis' sparing partners are legends like Cain and DC, and Hunt is with Tiger MT and guys like Tuivasa.

Guys, at the beginning of the week I was ready to argue the main fights of the both events, are not good for betting on either of the sides. You made me rethink my position. I agreed that the favourites in these fights are deserving favourites. Me, personally still won't get near either of these fights, but I see your side. RDA have to overcome hard match-up disadvantage to win, Tuivasa has 5 minutes to make his point. You are asking a lot from them in this fights.

But kind of unexpectedly, for another fight that I thought was 50/50, from additional tape watching I came to the conclusion Willis is gonna take a decision from Hunt. He is gonna outwork him from distance. You can go outside for a smoke during that fight, won't be too entertaining.

The other thing I think that Justin lost abit power trying to finish the fight in r1 after knocking down Sherman.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

This is pure speculating. You don't base this on real life evidence.

Hunt has a ton of losses. He does not give a shit what type of bad style match-up they offer him, as long as he gets paid (Diaz bro style), that is one of the reasons. Other is that he is slow, plodding fighter who fights in bursts and nowadays mainly on the counter because he does not have the reach or dynamism to close the distance quickly.

The only reason you saw Willis in kinda bad light in his last fight was that he face the rare heavyweight with cardio. Say what you want about Sherman, but he has a ton of cardio (for HW). Willis was confused what to do in the thai clinch, too. I think tired or not, this is a weak area for almost every HW because you don't get to spar everyday with HWs that can get you in good thai clinch, most of them know just how to box.

Hunt won't have the cardio like Sherman at all. Maybe as durable chin as him, maybe not. We'll see. Willis is a southpaw, which is going to emphasize his reach advantage even more, he has 5-6 inches more on Hunt. Just facing the opposing stance extends the distance between fighters. And Willis is actively trying to fight long. And he is doing well at it I think.

One last thing that I'll say is that Willis' sparing partners are legends like Cain and DC, and Hunt is with Tiger MT and guys like Tuivasa.

Guys, at the beginning of the week I was ready to argue the main fights of the both events, are not good for betting on either of the sides. You made me rethink my position. I agreed that the favourites in these fights are deserving favourites. Me, personally still won't get near either of these fights, but I see your side. RDA have to overcome hard match-up disadvantage to win, Tuivasa has 5 minutes to make his point. You are asking a lot from them in this fights.

But kind of unexpectedly, for another fight that I thought was 50/50, from additional tape watching I came to the conclusion Willis is gonna take a decision from Hunt. He is gonna outwork him from distance. You can go outside for a smoke during that fight, won't be too entertaining.

I respecfully believe that you give WIllis way too much credit. He really is shit-tier.

 

[Gugabe]

Ha Izzy still hasn't grown on you!

He's fine as a kickboxer, but he's still relatively low-power outside of landing a flush headkick or knees. I'll take him to beat Whittaker no sweat.

 

[MMAOracle]

This is pure speculating. You don't base this on real life evidence.

Hunt has a ton of losses. He does not give a shit what type of bad style match-up they offer him, as long as he gets paid (Diaz bro style), that is one of the reasons. Other is that he is slow, plodding fighter who fights in bursts and nowadays mainly on the counter because he does not have the reach or dynamism to close the distance quickly.

The only reason you saw Willis in kinda bad light in his last fight was that he face the rare heavyweight with cardio. Say what you want about Sherman, but he has a ton of cardio (for HW). Willis was confused what to do in the thai clinch, too. I think tired or not, this is a weak area for almost every HW because you don't get to spar everyday with HWs that can get you in good thai clinch, most of them know just how to box.

Hunt won't have the cardio like Sherman at all. Maybe as durable chin as him, maybe not. We'll see. Willis is a southpaw, which is going to emphasize his reach advantage even more, he has 5-6 inches more on Hunt. Just facing the opposing stance extends the distance between fighters. And Willis is actively trying to fight long. And he is doing well at it I think.

One last thing that I'll say is that Willis' sparing partners are legends like Cain and DC, and Hunt is with Tiger MT and guys like Tuivasa.

Guys, at the beginning of the week I was ready to argue the main fights of the both events, are not good for betting on either of the sides. You made me rethink my position. I agreed that the favourites in these fights are deserving favourites. Me, personally still won't get near either of these fights, but I see your side. RDA have to overcome hard match-up disadvantage to win, Tuivasa has 5 minutes to make his point. You are asking a lot from them in this fights.

But kind of unexpectedly, for another fight that I thought was 50/50, from additional tape watching I came to the conclusion Willis is gonna take a decision from Hunt. He is gonna outwork him from distance. You can go outside for a smoke during that fight, won't be too entertaining.

I know Willis is training at AKA but how long has he been training there?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I know Willis is training at AKA but how long has he been training there?

I think 2 years+

 

[theTKDguy]

Wonderboy Thompson is one of the few successful examples. He is another uber nice fella. You can see in the way he talks and even fights, that he is not feeling it. He much rather be in his karate school teaching young kids the way of the martial art, then be in the octagon. I can see it in his eyes. He is a competitor, he will do the job as well as he can do it, but he does not have "IT".

Just speculating, I don't know if this is in fact the case, just thinking.

Spot on. I like wonderboy a lot because of that reason, he is a martial artist rather than a cage fighter. but this is the same reason why he can't become champ, sadly. He's lacking killer instinct

having said that, he's done pretty good. very talented fighter. you need to pull the trigger more often wb!! front leg side kicks/hook kicks are hard to catch/read, if he mixed them up more often he would've won vs woodley

 

[theTKDguy]

IMO Israel just distance-strikes him at a sedate pace for 3 rounds, then it goes to a coinflip split decision for no good reason.

this is the most likely scenario. anderson even at 40 is a tricky fucker, moreso considering there won't be no td threat here. adesanya is legit but he isn't really as creative as some say. long and technical but he isn't throwing a rabona leg kick anytime soon. doesn't really have one punch ko power either. he is definitely good enough to beat old anderson by decision tho. he's very confident and has very good composure, great tdd.he'll likely be champ by next year.

prime anderson would've beaten him imo. he really was as fluid as they come. knees, kicks , punches you name it.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Let's talk about Anthony Martin. Price is going up. I bet him @+100.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Guys, I didn't notice that there are TWO events next to each other. I would be all over this thread, because I have what to say about couple of fights, and for the TUF 28 Finale - not so much.
Fuck easy win, man, no way. You saw JDS vs that slob Ivanov? Come on, prime JDS was a killer, Ivanov would not see a second round. I'll be honest with you, guys - I'm fading Cigano's ass since he lost to Reem. I bet huge agains him vs Miocic and again to Rothwell. I was blidned by greed and despide I saw that Rothwell is big slow dumb guy on tape that eats straight shots, I thought he just have to touch him once. Money in the trash there. I was more prepared and didn't fade him against Ivanov, I know Ivanov just don't have the tools in the stand-up and he is plain slow. He couldn't do much but be there for 25 mins because he has good chin and JDS won't risk being knocked out by some no name guy making his debut.

This here is totally different. Tai is MUCH MUCH faster than Ivanov, he is just as tough if not more, and has more cardio. The guy is young, you saw his uninspiring performance vs Andrei, but he could be a lot better in this fight, the time is on his side. JDS trains @ ATT, but he just use their guys to spar, mainly he is coached by his trainer. So ATT advantage and some new layers to his game is out of the question here. We'll see the SAME EXACT JDS that we saw vs Ivanov, and he could be even worse.

JDS relies heavily on backpedaling when on the defence. This leads him directly near or on the fence where Tai makes his hay. Junior does not use clinches or other methods to buy some time until he resets in the center of the octagon, he is just faster a lot of the times than the opponent, or scares them with power (in the past when he was younger, now people don't fear him so much) and this is largely what keeps him from getting knocked out every time he fights in my humble opinion. JDS doesn't kick, doesn't fight in the clinch or wrestle or nothing other than box. In the disntant past, his fast feet and hands helped him avoid counters and getting pushed to the fence, his sturdy chin absorbed with no problem what slipped through this defence. He is not any of these things now.

Don't bet Junior, people of sherdog (on - moneyline). Be smart, avoid this fight. Cigano is getting KTFO here.


Getting clipped and visibly little hurt by Oleynik in the same fight IS! Be warned. Hunto legendary chin is no more there. Don't bet old Hunt. I get that Overeem won last week vs some newcommer and your trust in the old HW dogs is back, but Big Pretty is not new to UFC first, and second, he trains at AKA. I don't want to bet against their guys unless I for sure know it's an easy match-up. 20u - you are crazy, you are crazy! Hunt has one way to win this, he has to knock him out, or he is losing it. He is not a consistent winner on the scorecards, he does not have the cardio to do it and he does not wrestle or fight in the clinch, he is almost pure counter puncher now, so scoring a lot of points striking is tough to do for him. He can get outworked.


Shogun is gonna get knocked the fuck out, agree.
It will be something like a 1 in a 100 if Rua wins this. Rua does not have ANY paths to victory here. He is slow, plodding, out of shape, doesn't have chin, doesn't have grappling edge, wrestling edge, he got dick here. Pedro could win every way he chooses to. Even if he want to give the victory it's gonna be difficult. He was that close to beat knock OSP out, and a lot faster than the new exciting prospect in Dom Reyes was able to do it eventuallyu. OSP fought a lot better vs Reyes, but still, Pedro was dropping him out of the gate.


He loves to grapple, even when he does not have clear edge there, he is going for it. I don't know why. His stand-up game is improving but can it be because he got a lot thicker and muscle blound all of a sudden? Guy is a fucking gorilla now. I remember how Kevin Lee said he is the strongest fighter he fought, just by pure strength. But his new found comfort in striking could be easily shaken by one good punch I think, and Tony Martin is really doing well with his striking. 50-50 in my mind I give slight advantage to Martin because I think his fight mentality is stronger and he makes good decisions infight. Tough to take a side with confidence. Somebody else that has more knowledge here could be very confident in a pick, I am not.

Fantastic write ups, good information. Thank you.

Think a parlay of Tai ITD/Pedro ITD might cash?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@LiquidNuke, thanks. My english is crappy, tho. And I tend to write a little too much, but I'll fix it with time.
Not a fan of parlays personally. But a lot of people do them and are successful. My history with parlays is that I have one or two super confident picks per card and almost every time I want to add 2nd or 3rd leg I get screwed. Maybe extremely bad luck, maybe not.
I would say Tyson ITD almost for sure. He is all offence usually. Grappling, striking - he is attacking and looking to finish the fight. Tai, I don't know about him. If he made really big steps in his conditioning and pressure footwork he is winning this almost for sure. But I can't bet on something that I did not saw, yet. So pass on Tai. I hope he wins because I want to see some turnover in this division tired to watch same guys from a decade ago

 

[piglord]

can someone confirm the start time for this event?

 

[Card]

MMAJunkie and UFC.com say 7 PM EST.

 

[Card]

 

[buckwheatloaf]

i put 3u on tai and 5u on willis and the long post saying why they're a good idea makes me feel good

 

[ill800]

Let's talk about Anthony Martin. Price is going up. I bet him @+100.

Martin is a killer

I bet Mathews early . It was really due to the massive jump he made in his last fight against leech, who is no slouch.

In retrospect I think martin at plus odds is the play.

I still like Mathews ability to score points both standing and grappling. I’ll probacly let the bet ride

I’ve been in Aruba all week so obviously no time to cap fights

Been struggling to break even at the casino on video poker and roulette.

Casino games are just a waste of time. Much better odds betting mma