UFN 157 on ESPN+ 15 Andrade vs Zhang

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I woke up in time to see the co-main and main events go horribly. Can't make any excuses, I bet Soukhamthath and Andrade far too big. I liked the sides, no issues in making a bet if you see it that way. Even liked the under 4½ in the main event. Just got reckless going far too big considering the risk.

Eh, don't beat yourself up about the main event. That really was a shocking outcome that wasn't indicated from any of the tape.

Admittedly, I was a little surprised at how much people liked Souk, even if I was in for 1.1u on him myself at -140. I expressed a lot of skepticism about the fight over PM, in part because Sumu looked pretty good on his pre-UFC tape.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Eh, don't beat yourself up about the main event. That really was a shocking outcome that wasn't indicated from any of the tape.

Admittedly, I was a little surprised at how much people liked Souk, even if I was in for 1.1u on him myself at -140. I expressed a lot of skepticism about the fight over PM, in part because Sumu looked pretty good on his pre-UFC tape.

The amount of people saying sumu is a can crusher swayed me, and first round where souk pressed him up the cage and trying to wrestle, as well as the hope of him staying in boxing range or closer is why I picked Souk as he switched to ATT gym and I hoped he would do that for 3 rounds. Imo he mentally checked out after breaking his hand 1st round, and his opponent was clearly a lot better than a can crusher so yeah that was a blow up lol.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

The amount of people saying sumu is a can crusher swayed me, and first round where souk pressed him up the cage and trying to wrestle, as well as the hope of him staying in boxing range or closer is why I picked Souk as he switched to ATT gym and I hoped he would do that for 3 rounds. Imo he mentally checked out after breaking his hand 1st round, and his opponent was clearly a lot better than a can crusher so yeah that was a blow up lol.

I had no illusions of Souk out-wrestling Sumu. Sumu's takedown defense actually looked okay on the tape, and he was doing all the right things, but he was obviously growing into bantamweight when he faced Smolka, as he had competed his entire career at flyweight before then, including a month prior to the fight.

He looked a lot bigger against Souk at the weigh-ins versus 9 months ago. Not to mention that Souk isn't nearly the grappler Smolka is.

However, I though Souk's proven power, chin, and size advantage was enough to cap him at around -200, despite how much I hated Souk's tendency to passively stay on the outside and wait for the perfect punch. Obviously the possibility of Sumu improving a lot (which did indeed happen) was a concern, too.

One thing I've definitely learned is that we have a tendency to slightly overrate "strength of competition" as opposed to the skills on display, and this becomes even worse when we get swayed by name recognition.

 

[ill800]

I have a gambling confession

I’ve been guilty of chasing and it’s been going on for about 5 months

If I’m slightly up, at evens or losing I’ve been adding bets during the card. It has worked out positive for me very few times

I’m not against adding plays during a card, but it would have to be for a line that I’ve been waiting for or a substantially better line than I originally bet.

And I know better

Units played on each fight, prefightnight, have been fine but during the card I’ve been getting in 7-8 unit range on fights that I don’t even like that much

I was on a six month hot streak and I guess I got into an expectation that I was going to continue to win 20 units an event.

It’s been rough since baseball started. Ive had some big weeks but far too many crappy ones

It’s not even a capping problem, it’s a self discipline problem

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I have a gambling confession

I’ve been guilty of chasing and it’s been going on for about 5 months

If I’m slightly up, at evens or losing I’ve been adding bets during the card. It has worked out positive for me very few times

I’m not against adding plays during a card, but it would have to be for a line that I’ve been waiting for or a substantially better line than I originally bet.

And I know better

Units played on each fight, prefightnight, have been fine but during the card I’ve been getting in 7-8 unit range on fights that I don’t even like that much

I was on a six month hot streak and I guess I got into an expectation that I was going to continue to win 20 units an event.

It’s been rough since baseball started. Ive had some big weeks but far too many crappy ones

It’s not even a capping problem, it’s a self discipline problem

Thought you were gonna abandon MLB all together?

 

[ApplesVild]

I have a gambling confession

I’ve been guilty of chasing and it’s been going on for about 5 months

If I’m slightly up, at evens or losing I’ve been adding bets during the card. It has worked out positive for me very few times

I’m not against adding plays during a card, but it would have to be for a line that I’ve been waiting for or a substantially better line than I originally bet.

And I know better

Units played on each fight, prefightnight, have been fine but during the card I’ve been getting in 7-8 unit range on fights that I don’t even like that much

I was on a six month hot streak and I guess I got into an expectation that I was going to continue to win 20 units an event.

It’s been rough since baseball started. Ive had some big weeks but far too many crappy ones

It’s not even a capping problem, it’s a self discipline problem

I know the feeling, I do it almost every card.. And then I wasn't happy with being slightly up from the UFC so I started betting the boxing...

 

[ill800]

Thought you were gonna abandon MLB all together?

I did but that’s what got this ball of crap rolling

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I did but that’s what got this ball of crap rolling

Greed taking you over homie. Glad you recognize it. Would hate to see a good capper fall.

 

[Kyojiro Kagenuma]

All aboard the Zhang Train. Choo fuckin' Choo

 

[ill800]

Greed taking you over homie. Glad you recognize it. Would hate to see a good capper fall.

Oh it fully is.

I booked this crazy big baller man trip to Maui for 2 weeks and I’ve been stressed about cash lately

Doing a lot of dumb stuff betting

 

[Sadistics]

I have a gambling confession

I’ve been guilty of chasing and it’s been going on for about 5 months

If I’m slightly up, at evens or losing I’ve been adding bets during the card. It has worked out positive for me very few times

I’m not against adding plays during a card, but it would have to be for a line that I’ve been waiting for or a substantially better line than I originally bet.

And I know better

Units played on each fight, prefightnight, have been fine but during the card I’ve been getting in 7-8 unit range on fights that I don’t even like that much

I was on a six month hot streak and I guess I got into an expectation that I was going to continue to win 20 units an event.

It’s been rough since baseball started. Ive had some big weeks but far too many crappy ones

It’s not even a capping problem, it’s a self discipline problem

I don't have a full grasp of the situation, but it sounds like you're trying to force recovery of what you've lost on these giant ill advised bets by placing more giant ill advised bets, a loop that can lead to bankruptcy. Forcing growth often backfires too. A good mental reset and a reminder that it's not a sprint could help.

Regular 10u+ wins per card is not feasible with decent sized units. Consistency is the goal, not giant nights spread between losing events. With about 44 UFC cards per year, all you need is an average of 2.3u per card to reach a 100u year. Minimize risk while maximizing profits

 

[Sono07]

I have a gambling confession

I’ve been guilty of chasing and it’s been going on for about 5 months

If I’m slightly up, at evens or losing I’ve been adding bets during the card. It has worked out positive for me very few times

I’m not against adding plays during a card, but it would have to be for a line that I’ve been waiting for or a substantially better line than I originally bet.

And I know better

Units played on each fight, prefightnight, have been fine but during the card I’ve been getting in 7-8 unit range on fights that I don’t even like that much

I was on a six month hot streak and I guess I got into an expectation that I was going to continue to win 20 units an event.

It’s been rough since baseball started. Ive had some big weeks but far too many crappy ones

It’s not even a capping problem, it’s a self discipline problem

Yeah that's a habit I'm breaking atm. Burned a small bankroll twice already making dumb plays during events, once on the contender series..... Anyway working on my prefight reads only at the moment.

 

[Gugabe]

Eh, don't beat yourself up about the main event. That really was a shocking outcome that wasn't indicated from any of the tape.

Admittedly, I was a little surprised at how much people liked Souk, even if I was in for 1.1u on him myself at -140. I expressed a lot of skepticism about the fight over PM, in part because Sumu looked pretty good on his pre-UFC tape.

Andrade's always been a bit chinny. I was playing Andrade ML, but made sure to hedge after the way she got hurt a bit by Torres, Rose and a few others.

 

[Yotsuya]

Yeah that's a habit I'm breaking atm. Burned a small bankroll twice already making dumb plays during events, once on the contender series..... Anyway working on my prefight reads only at the moment.

I quit lb after few months of betting. Now slowly getting back to it after two years.

 

[SwoleRichie]

Hit some good profit on Jung - this was the money maker of the entire card.

Placed the first bet of $20 (was meant to put $200 but didn't click hit the last 0) @ $5.50 odds after the second flurry from Ibragimov. Placed another $300 @ $5.50 odds after the third flurry. At this point Ibragimov looked like he had nothing left and had emptied his gas tank with time left in the first round while Jung was hitting him with the left jab at will.

First round ends, Jung was still paying $3.20 (not sure what the bookies were thinking). Into the second round after Ibragimov tries another Flurry I knew he was done so put down another $250 @ $3.20 odds.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Hit some good profit on Jung - this was the money maker of the entire card.

Placed the first bet of $20 (was meant to put $200 but didn't click hit the last 0) @ $5.50 odds after the second flurry from Ibragimov. Placed another $300 @ $5.50 odds after the third flurry. At this point Ibragimov looked like he had nothing left and had emptied his gas tank with time left in the first round while Jung was hitting him with the left jab at will.

First round ends, Jung was still paying $3.20 (not sure what the bookies were thinking). Into the second round after Ibragimov tries another Flurry I knew he was done so put down another $250 @ $3.20 odds.

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