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- Dec 16, 2015
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lolBy what metric? Give me something objective, like SAT score, IQ etc.
lolBy what metric? Give me something objective, like SAT score, IQ etc.
"Mutually Agreeable". You're the biggest angle shooter I've ever seen on here.If you ever find the balls to challenge me to a mutually agreeable bet, you will discover my true place in the hierarchy.
Meaning: if he and I ever go head-to-head, he will lose. Only then will he have an opportunity to reach the nexus @senri."Mutually Agreeable". You're the biggest angle shooter I've ever seen on here.
I've got a sig bet on the Russia investigation, and I'm willing to give you my sig on the same bet for 3 months after the other guy get sit for the first month. But, I won't lose. I hope you don't puss out like usual.Meaning: if he and I ever go head-to-head, he will lose. Only then will he have an opportunity to reach the nexus @senri.
By the way, I'm quite sure I would have beaten him regardless. I facepalm when I see people talk Silver up. His election work is little more than poll aggregation + weighting.
Maybe he was some kind of brilliant baseball analyst, but he's nothing special when it comes to politics.
Removed via impeachment proceedings and a Senate vote?Trump will be removed from office on or before December 31st, 2019. I'm taking the affirmative position.
Tribalistic and arrogantIf you ever find the balls to challenge me to a mutually agreeable bet, you will discover my true place in the hierarchy.
I totally agree. The point is that I facepalm when people tout Silver as a political genius. His work in politics is unremarkable. My bet with @m52nickerson was meant to demonstrate that, but it seems not to have convinced him. I can reliably beat Silver. It was not a one-off.What do you think would be a better basis for predictions? The point isn't to impress with fancy approaches as much as to get stuff right, I think, and I'm not aware of better approaches.
What specific works of his on media/politics have you found pathbreaking?Silver was solid as a baseball analyst (and made a living playing poker for a while), but his real success came from applying the kind of thinking that (a hardcore base of) baseball fans expect from baseball analysts to the media and politics. Seems backwards, but that's how it is. The state of the two fields are really far apart.
your mom longs for meTribalistic and arrogant
I like the cut of your jib, duder
You've tried to bait me before, but there's kind of a problem with that. Both the bets I've made on here since Lead started tracking them have given pretty generous odds against my view. My win condition with Homer was for only 1 indictment, he had the over and neither of us had zero. I offered a freeroll bet to somebody for the 2016 election. I think you'll notice that I don't tie much personal rope to forum bets. No offense to those who do- it's good sport- it's just not something I'm going to get riled up about.Meaning: if he and I ever go head-to-head, he will lose. Only then will he have an opportunity to reach the nexus @senri.
Just removed. Impeachment, indictment if Mueller's got the balls, or removal by the 25th amendment. It's before 2020, so I'm obviously not talking about the election.Removed via impeachment proceedings and a Senate vote?
fair response, respect gained.You've tried to bait me before, but there's kind of a problem with that. Both the bets I've made on here since Lead started tracking them have given pretty generous odds against my view. My win condition with Homer was for only 1 indictment, he had the over and neither of us had zero. I offered a freeroll bet to somebody for the 2016 election. I think you'll notice that I don't tie much personal rope to forum bets. No offense to those who do- it's good sport- it's just not something I'm going to get riled up about.
your mom longs for me
If I beat him again in 2020, will you say the same thing? How many times do I have to beat him before you acknowledge I'm just better than him?
Arrogance, thy name is InternetYou want to prove your are better then him? You can do that by make a better statistical model. Not just get, what was it 5 states, right.
How many states do I have to beat/tie him in before it becomes clear to you that my model is better than his?You want to prove your are better then him? You can do that by make a better statistical model. Not just get, what was it 5 states, right.
How many states do I have to beat/tie him in before it becomes clear to you that my model is better than his?
I totally agree. The point is that I facepalm when people tout Silver as a political genius. His work in politics is unremarkable. My bet with @m52nickerson was meant to demonstrate that, but it seems not to have convinced him. I can reliably beat Silver. It was not a one-off.
What specific works of his on media/politics have you found pathbreaking?
How many states do I have to beat/tie him in before it becomes clear to you that my model is better than his?