Why JAILTON ALMEIDA is the slight favourite against curtis?

[achoo42]

That's why you THINK the odds are that way; there are a lot of reasons people make the bets they do. That isn't a reliable as an identified 'most common' betting strategy; the odds don't consistently reflect that.

So please explain why Almeida is the betting favorite over Blaydes when it is (and I agree with this) a bad matchup for him.

My best answer was that people are using that flawed logic to pick their winner.

That is obviously an atrocious way to pick fights (or any sport) because it ignores the specific matchups as well as overall context, which are the most important thing. This is a bad matchup for Almeida. In ANY sport, fighter/team A may be able to beat fighter/team B, and fighter/team B may be able to beat fighter/team C, but that DOES NOT follow that team A can necessarily beat team C.

Way to miss the point.

I say that Almeida is the favorite because he beat Lewis when Blaydes didn't.

You say that doesn't make sense because MMath doesn't work.

I agree with you. However I'm saying that's why other people are betting that way.

You say that's not how people bet because it's not a logical way to bet, and yet you also say that the odds aren't logical because this is a bad matchup for Almeida.

So what's your point? Are people betting logically or are they not? If they're betting logically then why aren't the odds reflecting that?

 

[Trabaho]

Hard to predict, I´m going with the young gun. Blaydes never getting a title shot. You guys wish he wins cause american.

 

[IvanDrago2.0]

How is no one talking about Almeida going from 227 to 261 for this fight .. That’s going to be the mystery

 

[IvanDrago2.0]

Blaydes will win this easily.

And if he doesn't I'll just claim I picked Almeida all along.

Almeida went from 227 lbs to 261 lbs for this fight… Almeida is prepared for a wrestling match

 

[Levi_]

So please explain why Almeida is the betting favorite over Blaydes when it is (and I agree with this) a bad matchup for him.

My best answer was that people are using that flawed logic to pick their winner.



Way to miss the point.

I say that Almeida is the favorite because he beat Lewis when Blaydes didn't.

You say that doesn't make sense because MMath doesn't work.

I agree with you. However I'm saying that's why other people are betting that way.

You say that's not how people bet because it's not a logical way to bet, and yet you also say that the odds aren't logical because this is a bad matchup for Almeida.

So what's your point? Are people betting logically or are they not? If they're betting logically then why aren't the odds reflecting that?

Expain why people are making the bets they are? I don't know, and neither do you. What is true is that betting (again) does not always reflect this same flawed logic that you point out here, and often doesn't. Therefore, it isn't a reliable way to understand why people make the best they do. It is merely an assumption.

 

[Levi_]

well Francis became champ while having about the opposite but till as limited skill set as Almeida. But i admit i am completely unsure and cant WSIT to see this fight whole crd is stacked

No, Francis had much improved his grappling hugely and had great strikes when he won the title. Watch the fight.

 

[achoo42]

Expain why people are making the bets they are? I don't know, and neither do you. What is true is that betting (again) does not always reflect this same flawed logic that you point out here, and often doesn't. Therefore, it isn't a reliable way to understand why people make the best they do. It is merely an assumption.

Yeah, it's an assumption. If you weren't aware, almost all discussion on the Internet revolves around assumptions, opinions, and people's best guesses on why or how something will happen. People don't have to write "JUST MY OPINION" as a disclaimer after every post. It's simply a given.

I gave out my best guess for why Almeida is the betting favorite, and you responded by totally missing the point. Just admit it.

 

[El Fernas]

Recency bias imo, and him controlling Lewis for 5 rounds while Blaydes got put to sleep, but i'd give it to hype, like if he is some improved version, i think he is good, just not full on HW sized.

 

[NoSmilez]

Jailton might be technically better than Blaydes in wrestling. Jailton isn't really a HW though. I am assuming Blaydes will be the first person to contest the takedown.

 

[Tweak896]

People act like Blaydes is the greatest wrestler because he's the best of the division right now. But he's not perfect at all. We haven't seen many try and take him down.

 

[colorles]

Am I the only one that doesn't think Almeida is undersized for the heavyweight division? sure, not a big heavyweight. but he is weighing at 240 pounds with some muscle no doubt but not over muscled. And he's mobile. He should do fine

 

[Captain Herb]

On paper Blaydes neutralizes Almeida's grappling and maybe clocks him in the process. He should be the favorite. If the oddsmakers see it differently, then they know something I don't and I wouldn't bet against them.

 

[BonesWinckleJones]

it is what it is i guess XD

 

[WillyWill]

exactly as i predicted so far in rd 1. Keep it up Jailton, curtis is starting to get that confused look on his face

 

[WillyWill]

how can i delete a previous post?



damn bro. god damnit.

 

[BonyAcaiNogueiraBrothers]

exactly as i predicted so far in rd 1. Keep it up Jailton, curtis is starting to get that confused look on his face

 

[AndrewGolota48]

Almeida was just shamelessly trying to literally ankle-bite Blaydes before the TKO....but I have to admit, even the grappling advantage Almeida had in round one impressed and surosied me. No damage at all or anything and he couldn't keep that up, but still was way beyond my expectation.

 

[Human Bass]

Jailton is the better wrestler, but Blaydes knew how to counter.

 

[AndrewGolota48]

Am I the only one that doesn't think Almeida is undersized for the heavyweight division? sure, not a big heavyweight. but he is weighing at 240 pounds with some muscle no doubt but not over muscled. And he's mobile. He should do fine

He's not any smaller than Cain, aside from cranium size.

 

[BonesWinckleJones]

Jailton is the better wrestler, but Blaydes knew how to counter.

better wrestler how? did 0 damage with his takedowns and wasted all his energy in round 1,shoot for desperate takedown in round 2 and got hammer fisted to death