I mean, I can try to elaborate, but it's gonna be the same step forward, step backward conclusion.
Woodley had a busted shoulder he tried to fix with surgery. Among many things, bad shoulders get in the way of keeping hands up, that was the main issue for Rockhold, for example - he had a shit shoulder that lead to all of his recent problems. On top of that, T-Wood's got hand arthritis that's, apparently, serious. So both defensively and offensively, he's compromised. Add to it, even if he got in his most realistic peak condition - it's gonna be a peak for a 40 year old. And then his mind's just wandering, he's been gun shy for however many fights now.
So that's Paul's big hope, that Woodley's degraded enough to be beatable. But there is no way Paul knows more about boxing than Woodley, that he's more skilled than Woodley. It's just not possible when Paul himself is so young and hasn't been doing this for so long himself. And there's no way he can eat even an arthritis riddled T-Bomb.
So I think Woodley should steamroll him, but if he doesn't - it's gonna come down to those factors I mentioned earlier.