Your Official UFC 212 Bets

1u Assuncao +160
1.05u Yancy -105
1.66u Oluwale Bamgbose +255
2u Holloway/Aldo o4.5 -155
0.66u Marquardt ITD +166
0.4u Marquardt KO +280
0.33u Marquardt R1 +300 (Hate this bet. Got antsy when props came out and didn't check the KO line which is significantly better)
0.33u Bamgbose TKO/KO +450
0.2u Bamgbose Fastest KO +1000
0.2u Marquardt KO +1050
0.33u Lopez DEC +365

RR'd in 3s: Gadelha/KK o2.5 + Moyle/Pereira o2.5 + Assuncao/Moraes o2.5 + Beltran/Fig o1.5. Risk: 4u to win 7u

And the usual dumb lotto, RR'd 2-5
Oluwale KO + Marquardt R2 + Yancy R3 + Wallhead R3 + Gadelha SUB. $13 to win about 75k.

TOTAL RISK: Around 12u

Smaller card than normal for me. To avoid being super small I broke away from staying disciplined and went back to my usual degen ways with Round Robins, lots of dogs, and forced plays. Expecting a rough night but hoping for the best. Let's go Bamgbose and Marquardt
 
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7 dollar parlay for 419

Moraes
Marquart
Silva
Karolina
Holloway

25 on aldo by ko/too for 125
10 on marquart by Dec for 64
2.50 on karolina ko for 25
2.50 on karolina Dec for 15
 
Not so much action on this weekend due to exams, but a lot on Aldo and Gadelha. Also looking forward to try freerolling during the event, last weekend worked great.

2u Aldo @ 1.77

2u Eduardo @ 2.85

2u o1.5 Beltran + o2.5 Assuncao @ 2.43

2u Aldo dec + Gadelha dec + o2.5 Pereira @ 6.33

1u Gadelha unanimous dec + Aldo unanimous dec @ 7.70

0.4u Aldo + Gadelha dec + o2.5 Pereira + o1.5 Beltran + o2.5 Assuncao + Eduardo + Belfort + Chagas + Iuri Alcantara + Antonio Carlos @ 124

0.4u Aldo unanimous dec + Gadelha unanimous dec + Borra KO + Iuri Alcantara ITD + Belfort KO + Moraes DEC @ 137.5

0.6u Borra KO + Belfort KO + Moraes unanimous dec + Iuri Alcantara ITD + Antonio Carlos @ 34.3

0.1u Holloway R4 KO @ 41

0.1u Holloway R5 KO @ 81

Best of luck to everybody!
 
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Holloway NSC 1.66u +106, o4.5 2.1u -155 FOTN .5u +260
Gadelha dec 2.3u -130
Borrachinha sub .1u +973
Yancy 1.4u -120
Moraes 1u -160
ACJ 4.5u -210
Beltran dec .66u +385

RR in 3s and 4s 4.66u to win like 7u -- Holloway/Aldo starts rd3, o2.5 Claudia/KK, Oluwale/Borra doesn't start round 3, Moraes/Assuncao starts round 2, ACJ, o2.5 Moyle/Viviane, Beltran/Deiveson starts rd2

RR in 3s 1u to win a fuck ton of units (like 22-ish) -- Holloway dec, Claudia dec, Nate, Oluwale, Yuri/Kelleher o2.5, Moraes dec, Wallhead/Luan o2.5, Lopez/Eduardo o2.5, Moyle dec, Beltran dec

Fucking atrocious card for betting. Prob add money to that round robin but with ACJ excluded due to high risk already. Prob degen stab Wallhead dec and the over for Eduardo/Lopez. Prob bet Marquardt if the night is going well. But man, fuck this card for betting smfh. Give me good livebet please.
 
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chemmy said:
Nothing sticks out to me as amazing value yet for this card, so I’m pretty much keeping everything down to single unit plays to not over-expose myself.


Marco Beltran… 1 unit to win 1.38 units

Johnny Eduardo… 1 unit to win 1.68 units

Viviane Periera… 1 unit to win 0.91 units

Holloway/Aldo Over 4.5… 1.51 units to win 1 unit

Moyle/Perreira O2.5 + Moraes/Assuncao O2.5… 1 unit to win 1.22 units

Jose Aldo… 1 unit to win 0.91 units
Click to expand...


Added:

Moraes... 1.52 units to win 1 unit
Shoeface... 2.12 units to win 1 unit
Erick SIlva... 1 unit to win 1.2 units
 
My bets
#1
- sapato Carlos junior + gadelha

#2
Aldo + erick silva
 
4 Units Jose Aldo -140
4 Units Antonio Carlos Jr. -210
2 Units Gadelha (-330) / Belfort/Marquardt does not start Rd 3 (-382) parlay
 
1 units = $120. Thinking of adding to Moyle...

2 Team - Parlay 1 unit
Antonio Carlos Junior ML (-270)
Marco Beltran ML (+120)

2 Team - Parlay 2 units - Meh
Claudia Gadelha ML (-360)
Yancy Medeiros ML (-150)

2 Team - Parlay 3 units
Claudia Gadelha ML (-280)
Antonio Carlos Junior ML (-210)

2 Team - Parlay 3 units
Jose Aldo ML (-115)
Claudia Gadelha ML (-280)

Oluwale Bamgbose ML (+250) 2 units

2 Team - Parlay 2 units
Antonio Carlos Junior ML (-230)
Johnny Eduardo ML (+190)

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2 Team - Parlay 2 units
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Antonio Carlos Junior ML (-230)
plus.gif
Jamie Moyle ML (+110)

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2 Team - Parlay 2 units
plus.gif
Claudia Gadelha ML (-280)
plus.gif
Valentina Shevchenko ML (+105)
 
UFC 212 Risk: 1,721
holloway +130: 100 for 130 - 25 parlays / holloway DEC: 33 for 99 / holloway ITD: 22 parlays / holloway RD4: 10 for 220 / holloway RD5: 10 for 280 - 5 parlays / holloway NSC: 150 for 163 / O4.5: 75 for 50 / aldo
KK DEC: 50 for 236 - 12 parlays / gadelha NSC: 145 for 100
marquardt +123: 100 for 123 - 25 parlays / marq ITD: 12 parlays / marq RD2: 15 for 131.25 / marq RD3: 10 for 170 / marq NSC: 10 parlays / belfort
bamgbose +275: 50 for 137.50 / RD1: 92.50 for 50 / costa SUB: 10 for 97.30
silva +115: 100 for 115 - 25 parlays / silva DEC: 25 for 120 - 12 parlays / medeiros
moraes DEC: 25 parlays / DEC: 87.50 for 50 / assuncao DEC: 10 parlays
spicely SUB: 25 for 121.25 / spicely RD3: 10 for 245 / spicely NSC: 40 for 111.60 - 10 parlays / RD1: 12 parlays / junior KO: 25 for 164.50
lopez -150: 75 for 50 / lopez SUB: 10 parlays / lopez RD3: 5 parlays / eduardo
alcantara RD3: 5 parlays / RD1: 12 parlays / kelleher
moyle +130: 150 for 195 - 25 parlays / moyle sub: 10 for 95 / moyle RD3: 5 parlays / moyle NSC: 150 for 322.50 / pereira
wallhead RD3: 10 for 217.50 - 5 parlays / wallhead NSC: 40 for 110 - 22 parlays / chagas
beltran: 25 parlays RD3: 5 parlays / alcantra
props
FOTN: silva-medeiros: 10 for 57.50
parlays
50 RR for 590.78: holloway/ marq/ silva/ moraesDEC/ moyle/ beltran
28 RR for 1,824.78: hollowayITD/ KKDEC/ marqITD/ silvaDEC/ JRspicelyRD1/ iurikelleherRD1/ wallheadNSC
20 RR for 930.16: hollowayITD/ marqNSC/ assuncaoDEC/ spicelyNSC/ lopezSUB/ wallheadNSC
15 RR for 3,889.97: hollowayRD5/ lopezRD3/ alcantaraRD3/ moyleRD3/ wallheadRD3/ beltranRD3
---

i'll finalize stuff at some point tomorrow, but i might be about set. holloway & moyle are my biggest stakes...

i am against soooo many people on so many fights... probably means i'm gonna lose this week. we'll see...
 
3u Aldo - 1.77
2u Carlos Junior - 1.45
1.5u Gadelha + Carlos Junior - 1.82
1u Medeiros - 1.75
1u Belfort/Marquardt fight ends by KO + Borra/Bamgbose fight ends R1-R2 + Aldo/Holloway o2.5 - 2.22
0.5u Borrachinha R1 - 1.83
0.5u Belfort R1 - 2.50
0.5u Wallhead - 3.16
0.25u Carlos Junior KO - 6.00
 
Erick Silva 2,22 1u
Gadelha by dec 2,27 1u
Beltran 2,26 1u
 
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1.2U Yancy @-110 - $115
.30U Yancy ITD @ +244 - $73
.25U Yancy ITD @ +160 - $52
.20U Yancy Round 2 - $107
.20U Yancy Round 3 - $177
.20U Medeiros wins by 3 round decision +325 - $65
(Reliazed I went too much on Yancy ITD and round bets,and if that doesn't cash but he wins I don't get much profit off the ML, so did a little Yancy DEC in case, a mistake on my part. But if Yancy wins ITD and in round 2 or 3, then ching ching!! $) If he loses, sour grapes.

.20U Kelleher wins by 3 round decision +470 - $94

.20u Marquardt / Belfort goes 3 rd distance +450 - $90

.10U Holloway wins in round 4 +2050 - $205
.10U Holloway wins in round 5 +2350 - $235
.50u Holloway wins by 5 round decision* +255 - $127.50

.15 U -Bamgbose / Costa starts round 3 +308 - $46
.15U Bamgbose / Costa starts round 2 +158* - $23
.10U Bamgbose wins by 3 round decision +1115 - $111

.10 Wallhead wins in round 3 +1800* - $180
.10 Wallhead wins by 3 round decision +385 - $39

.25U Spicely / Junior goes 3 round distance +100 - $25

.10U Pereira wins by submission +735 - $73.50
.10U Moyle wins by submission +800* - $80
(did this as a hedge in my parlays in case this fight doesn't go the dec, it will mostly be by sub)
Parlays

- $50 to win $384 - 5 Teamer
Max Holloway/Jose Aldo Over 4½ -165*
Antonio Carlos Junior -225* vs Eric Spicely
Derek Brunson -300* vs Daniel Kelly
Marcin Tybura -250* vs Andrei Arlovski
Mike Chiesa +100* vs Kevin Lee

4 Teamer $50 to win $261
Max Holloway/Jose Aldo Over 4½ -145*
Claudia Gadelha -300* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Yancy Medeiros -105* vs Erick Silva
Antonio Carlos Junior -240* vs Eric Spicely


$30 to win $192
Max Holloway/Jose Aldo Over 4½ -165*
Claudia Gadelha -300* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Yancy Medeiros -140* vs Erick Silva
Antonio Carlos Junior -225* vs Eric Spicely
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -260*

$16 to win $253
Yancy Medeiros -145* vs Erick Silva
Holloway / Aldo goes 5 round distance -170*
Kowalkiewicz / Gadelha goes 3 rd dist -360*
Moraes / Assuncao goes 3 round distance
Lopez / Eduardo starts round 2 -317*
Kelleher / Alcantara starts round 2 -305*
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -275*
Beltran / Alcantara starts round 2 -286*

$35- $149

Antonio Carlos Junior -245* vs Eric Spicely
Moraes / Assuncao goes 3 round distance -215*
Lopez / Eduardo starts round 2 -325*
Pereira / Moyle goes 3 round distance -275*
Wallhead / Chagas starts round 2 -257*



Think I may add a few more parlays but this is it for the most part.

 
Here we go boys!!!!

Marquardt ITD
Beltran/Fig doesn't go distance
Johnny Ed by DEC
0.5u = 10.3u


Viviane/Moyle o2.5
Claud/Karol o2.5
Carlos Jr
Marquardt r2
Assuncao DEC
Aldo ITD
0.25u = 62u


Wallhead DEC
Figuiredo
Alcantara r2
Silva ITD
0.25u = 38u


Figuiredo ITD
Silva
Paulo/Bamgbose o1.5
Claudia
0.4u = 9u

Viviane DEC
Assuncao/Moraes doesn't go distance
Jose Aldo
Alcantara ITD
1u = 21u

Johnny Ed DEC
Aldo/Holloway doesn't go distance
Bamgbose ITD
Carlos Jr DEC
Vitor/Mar o1.5
0.1u = 33u

Good Luck guys!!! Praying a parlay hits tonight!!
 
Guys can you suggest me 3 over for this event other than Aldo/Holloway?
 
moraes, paulo £205 returns £410.

that's about it, i don't like this card from a gambling pespective. if money continues to come in on aldo i am going to play max though.
 
[Aldo (-110) risk: 2.2u
>Max (+135) risk: 3u]
Updated stake: Max (+185) risk: 1u to win 1.85u

Gadelha -3.5 (+135) risk: 1u

Marquardt (+150) risk: 1u
Marquardt DEC (+800) risk: 0.1u

Bamgbose by TKO (+370) risk: 0.2u

Silva (+125) risk: 1u

Moraes by DEC (+140) risk: 1u

Wallhead (+225) risk: 1u
 
Staying small on this card:

Aldo dec +176 / Claudia -140 dec parlay. 70 to win 265.

+ some DK
 
1.52u Aldo-Holloway o4.5 -122
1u Holloway NSC +110
0.05u Holloway RD4 +2050
0.05u Holloway RD5 +2350

0.5u Kowalkiewicz DEC +468
0.05u Kowalkiewicz RD3 +2800

0.5u Bamgbose +275
0.1u Borrachinha SUB +900

0.5u Silva +130

1.79u Moraes NSC -179
0.5u Assuncao DEC +349

0.5u Kelleher +295
0.2u Kelleher NSC +504

0.5u Moyle +145
0.5u Moyle NSC +180

0.1u Shoeface/Moraes-Assuncao o2.5/Silva/Bamgbose-Costa u1.5/Marquardt-Belfort u1.5/KK-Gadelha o2.5/Holloway +2283
0.1u Shoeface SUB/Holloway KO +2620
0.1u Moyle NSC/Moraes NSC/KK NSC/Holloway NSC +1740

Really tough card for betting IMO. Keeping it pretty small to hopefully avoid a disaster. Might add a few more plays before fight time.
 
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