UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

[BatBoyJG]

Zingano, Wineland & Brown(+130) are my plays so far

Added Scoggins and Barcelos love the odds I got in with them (+140 and +165)

Nurmagomedov is super flat footed in the footage I have seen. Scoggins is a head case, but I really believe that he has world class talent. If he does not get caught in another god damn choke I feel he makes Nurmagomedov look down right silly in space and lands with good frequency.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Stylistically, prime Mendes would absolutely demolish any version of Jury. That's not because Jury is terrible (like you said, when at his best he's a solid fighter for sure). It's just that prime Mendes was so damn explosive, had good power, and suffocating top control. Jury just wouldn't have any answers.

But how can anyone know if we will see anything even resembling what Mendes used to be? This is just a plain and simple dog or pass situation based on the monstrous uncertainty surrounding the favorite. If Mendes was -150, okay. I could see rolling the dice that he'd resemble the top contender we saw over the years. But at current odds? It's just insanity to bet him imo. Jury at +170 (where you got him) or now even better is a very nice gamble to take.

Exactly why I was lol I'm not putting -300 or worse on an unknown and you just cant know what Mendes will look like. Bermudez price is a joke too, dude been on a steady decline. Both Bermudez and Mendes should win, both good matchups but it's hard to trust either at these prices.

 

[Gugabe]

Rugby player wrestling doesn't easily beat D1?

Well. Elkins never actually wrestled D1, but he out-wrestled Bermudez who did. Elkins wrestled D2. I just don't see any strong reason to assume that Volkanovski can put his wrestling game on Elkins, and Volkanovski's entire pressure style kinda leans on having wrestling dominance.

Zingano as a dog seems a bit silly. Reneau hasn't beaten anybody semi-good lately, and her triangle over McMann was prettymuch a miracle after got rolled in the first round. Zingano's bigger and is gonna throw her around (and then fall into a random-ass triangle)

 

[burge13]

Elkins is 3.34 at sportsbet so I'm having a stab at it.

 

[P4p Islam]

People really want to pay crazy juice on Mendes who hasn't fought in THREE YEARS? Yeah, if he's the same guy (or close to it) he'll smoke Jury but how can anyone have any confidence in a guy coming off such a long layoff? And then paying -300 or more on top of it? No thanks.

Mendes has only ever lost to aldo conor and frankie.


He is tailor made to beat someone like jury.

Edit: Hes also had 3 years to rehab too. He will be the much fresher fighter. I like Mendes ITD.

 

[P4p Islam]

Darren Elkins at +220? Yes please. I wouldnt say volk is a good striker, but hes serviceable.


Elkins is a lot better than he gets credit for, and I think hes the better striker. Elkins is a smart fighter and has a very good chance to win IMO. I think the wrestling will likely cancel out, and the fight will go the distance.


Elkins via close decision.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

People have to be crazy to bet Mendes after this suspension. Who knows how will he look like under usada and Myles is no joke.
For this card I think I will bet
Volkanovski- Elinks luck runs out for this fight like I said earlier.
Randy Brown- Niko Price looked awful against this bum in his last fight, I dont see improvments in his game.. Randy should fuck him up in stand up, Im abit concerned about his tdd though.
Alejandro Perez- this guy is a weasel, finds ways to win
Myles Jury- Cant trust Mendes after this suspension under usada, Myles has the skills to win this fight.
Said Nurmagomedov- He is a Nurmagomedov
Blagoy Ivanov- I know this is a good matchup for JDS but damn he was in so many wars, cant trust his chin anymore.
Ivanov makes this fight camp in AKA that should give him a advantage.

 

[mkess101]

Mendes has only ever lost to aldo conor and frankie.


He is tailor made to beat someone like jury.

Edit: Hes also had 3 years to rehab too. He will be the much fresher fighter. I like Mendes ITD.

"Fresher"? Jury has fought twice in the last 2.5 years, the last one being 6 months ago. It's not like he's been fighting a Cowboy Cerrone like schedule. But there's a difference between being "fresh" (which should actually apply to Jury) and having some potential serious Cage Rust (which would be when you haven't fought in 3 years).

Again, IF we see vintage Mendes then I totally agree he'll probably make it look easy vs Jury. But that is a huge, MONSTROUS "if". Usada wasn't even in place the last time he fought was it? Either way, it's a giant question mark what we see from Mendes here.

 

[Gugabe]

"Fresher"? Jury has fought twice in the last 2.5 years, the last one being 6 months ago. It's not like he's been fighting a Cowboy Cerrone like schedule. But there's a difference between being "fresh" (which should actually apply to Jury) and having some potential serious Cage Rust (which would be when you haven't fought in 3 years).

Again, IF we see vintage Mendes then I totally agree he'll probably make it look easy vs Jury. But that is a huge, MONSTROUS "if". Usada wasn't even in place the last time he fought was it? Either way, it's a giant question mark what we see from Mendes here.

Probably gonna wait till I see a price on Jury KO before I try going for the upset, here. Mendes was looking a bit chinny towards the end, and the vast majority of his losses are by brutal KO. Also I think a shit-looking Mendes gets KO'd mooreso than outworked too a decision.

Scoggins probably worth a play, but Russian money and the last name'll push him out to +200 no sweat.

 

[Larthus]

Took a parlay between Elkins Price & Ivanov for absurd return. If it manages to hit until the JDS fight i'm just going to hedge.

Niko Price at Evens right now is great & Darren Elkins at +235? Yeah that won't stay there long

 

[Gugabe]

Took a parlay between Elkins Price & Ivanov for absurd return. If it manages to hit until the JDS fight i'm just going to hedge.

Niko Price at Evens right now is great & Darren Elkins at +235? Yeah that won't stay there long

Why not just hedge the first 2 if you're confident those prices won't move. I'm on Elkins, but I think he'll get oout to +300 since he's not a sexy pick and the Aussie market likes blowing out their favorites.

 

[Larthus]

Why not just hedge the first 2 if you're confident those prices won't move. I'm on Elkins, but I think he'll get oout to +300 since he's not a sexy pick and the Aussie market likes blowing out their favorites.

I gassed my account spamming the price ML after I typed that

 

[Karmello]

Took Elkins @+250 and Wineland @+215, both for 1 unit. Also liking Cat and Barcelos as dogs

 

[Stunna77]

Maxed Volk +115, -120, and -160, kicking myself for not maxing again -190 to have more room for arbing. Probably let my 3.8u ride at -121.

 

[edole]

Reaaallllyyyy hoping to get Randy Brown a little closer to events, or even + money

 

[Larthus]

Reaaallllyyyy hoping to get Randy Brown a little closer to events, or even + money

Who has the better trajectory - the fighter training out of a small gym in NY or the fighter training at ATT?

 

[P4p Islam]

Probably gonna wait till I see a price on Jury KO before I try going for the upset, here. Mendes was looking a bit chinny towards the end, and the vast majority of his losses are by brutal KO. Also I think a shit-looking Mendes gets KO'd mooreso than outworked too a decision.

Scoggins probably worth a play, but Russian money and the last name'll push him out to +200 no sweat.

Mendes has 4 losses. Aldo 2x, Frankie, and Conor on like 2 weeks notice.


Frankie blasted him flush and KO'd him, Aldo blasted him flush with a knee and KO'd him, and Conor won by TKO after he was gassed. Let's not start saying Mendes is chinny. The shots that KO'd him would have KO'd anybody.





This is what I'm talking about. People start trying to convince themselves that betting money on Myles Jury to beat Chad Mendes is a good idea. This is how the circle jerks get started, and it's always glorious when they burst into flames. There are a handful of people in this thread alone that bet on Chad Laprise to beat Vicente Luque.

 

[Stunna77]

Who has the better trajectory - the fighter training out of a small gym in NY or the fighter training at ATT?

Well from looking at actual fights and not which gyms they train at I would say Brown is clearly improving at a faster clip.

 

[mkess101]

Mendes has 4 losses. Aldo 2x, Frankie, and Conor on like 2 weeks notice.


Frankie blasted him flush and KO'd him, Aldo blasted him flush with a knee and KO'd him, and Conor won by TKO after he was gassed. Let's not start saying Mendes is chinny. The shots that KO'd him would have KO'd anybody.





This is what I'm talking about. People start trying to convince themselves that betting money on Myles Jury to beat Chad Mendes is a good idea. This is how the circle jerks get started, and it's always glorious when they burst into flames.

I'm not strongly advocating a play on Jury necessarily. I'm strongly advocating NOT paying huge juice on a guy coming off a freaking THREE YEAR layoff and who may or may not be affected by USADA.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Mendes has 4 losses. Aldo 2x, Frankie, and Conor on like 2 weeks notice.


Frankie blasted him flush and KO'd him, Aldo blasted him flush with a knee and KO'd him, and Conor won by TKO after he was gassed. Let's not start saying Mendes is chinny. The shots that KO'd him would have KO'd anybody.





This is what I'm talking about. People start trying to convince themselves that betting money on Myles Jury to beat Chad Mendes is a good idea. This is how the circle jerks get started, and it's always glorious when they burst into flames.

So you obv bet Mendes only real questions are -300 or better? And at what odds would you not bet Mendes? I know you say you play "winners" so I imagine odds mean shit to you unless you see a dog that you feel should or could be the fav.