UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

[Larthus]

Well from looking at actual fights and not which gyms they train at I would say Brown is clearly improving at a faster clip.

Disagree because of level of competition but agree to disagree I suppose

 

[P4p Islam]

I'm not strongly advocating a play on Jury necessarily. I'm strongly advocating NOT paying huge juice on a guy coming off a freaking THREE YEAR layoff and who may or may not be affected by USADA.

Right, and I'm not saying you are either. I'm just saying that these are the directions things go where everyone jumps on board together and hype themselves into making a bad play, and then everybody else starts sperging out because someone has a + next to their name.


To stay on topic, the play for me is Mendes or pass. I will not put any amount of money on Myles Jury.

 

[P4p Islam]

So you obv bet Mendes only real questions are -300 or better? And at what odds would you not bet Mendes? I know you say you play "winners" so I imagine odds mean shit to you unless you see a dog that you feel should or could be the fav.

I wouldn't play mendes at anything higher than -400 under the current circumstances. I won't play him alone either, but rather parlay him with someone else like Niko Price for example.

 

[Oblivian]

Right, and I'm not saying you are either. I'm just saying that these are the directions things go where everyone jumps on board together and hype themselves into making a bad play, and then everybody else starts sperging out because someone has a + next to their name.


To stay on topic, the play for me is Mendes or pass. I will not put any amount of money on Myles Jury.

There have been some big circle jerks on the favs too though.

 

[BatBoyJG]

I rather circle jerk an underdog than a favorite personally. Either way I am playing neither, I would have played Jury at +230 when he was there though.

 

[mkess101]

Right, and I'm not saying you are either. I'm just saying that these are the directions things go where everyone jumps on board together and hype themselves into making a bad play, and then everybody else starts sperging out because someone has a + next to their name.


To stay on topic, the play for me is Mendes or pass. I will not put any amount of money on Myles Jury.

I hear you. But I also think the sheer # of fights now (ppv, fox cards, fs1 fight nights, DWCS, Bellator, PFL, etc) means that there are just going to be fights here and there where there is like minded thinking in the thread.

I agree sometimes they probably get a bit more steam than they deserve. But I think some of it is just a numbers game. A zillion fights to bet, odds are that a few are gonna have everyone (or almost everyone) with the same lean.

 

[Oblivian]

Honestly, I think the sides that have the majority on this forum are now probably break even or just slight above at best.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

We're all subject to confirmation bias as well. Cant get away from it and sometimes people on the other side wont argue because theyll either be met with attitude or animosity.

 

[Stunna77]

I wouldn't play mendes at anything higher than -400 under the current circumstances. I won't play him alone either, but rather parlay him with someone else like Niko Price for example.

Interested to hear why you like Niko here.

 

[Stunna77]

Hit Jodie +185 on Dimes for line movement then hit Aguilar +125 on BOL. Win 1u with a Ag win and .25u with a Jodie win, no risk. May hit Ag dec for .25u as that is the outcome I actually favor and will then have a straight freeroll on her.

 

[eataface]

Right, and I'm not saying you are either. I'm just saying that these are the directions things go where everyone jumps on board together and hype themselves into making a bad play, and then everybody else starts sperging out because someone has a + next to their name.


To stay on topic, the play for me is Mendes or pass. I will not put any amount of money on Myles Jury.

Could get something decent on the over as well

 

[Stunna77]

Hit Wineland for 1u at +210 at BOL, think that line is way wide. Played it after Perez tape and then it dropped to +155 after I finished Wineland tape. May add if price on Dimes improves, think this is a pick em.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Mendes at -215 now. I'm also thinking about a play on Wineland but havent bet yet

 

[edole]

Who has the better trajectory - the fighter training out of a small gym in NY or the fighter training at ATT?

ATT fighters lose all the time.

People were trying to tell me that Moyle was a strong play for 226 because she made a permanent move to TAM.

Let me ask you a question, what does Niko Price do well?

 

[ill800]

Wineland is a dangerous opponent for perez. Perez gets hit and, in the souk fight specifically, gets dropped. Wineland finishes guys. If he loses it’s by decision

I think I’d rather play wineland itd or perez dec than either ml. Maybe small on wineland ml and larger on the itd prop.

Still watching tape but as soon as I started with perez I remembered him from the souk fight. We all know souks legendary terrible fight iq. He should’ve won that fight if he wasn’t such a dunce

 

[ill800]

Hit Wineland for 1u at +210 at BOL, think that line is way wide. Played it after Perez tape and then it dropped to +155 after I finished Wineland tape. May add if price on Dimes improves, think this is a pick em.

I would slightly favor perez. With Recent trends and ages I would favor perez at around 150-160

Perez is a high volume aggressive guy. He throws a lot of effective leg kicks. I think it will be tough for wineland to win a decision unless he hurts him frequently, which is very possible.

I still have to look at wineland. He hasn’t fought since April 2017

I’m trying to find a good stats site to check their strike numbers per fight. Fight metrics is always down

 

[t6p]

I would slightly favor perez. With Recent trends and ages I would favor perez at around 150-160

Perez is a high volume aggressive guy. He throws a lot of effective leg kicks. I think it will be tough for wineland to win a decision unless he hurts him frequently, which is very possible.

I still have to look at wineland. He hasn’t fought since April 2017

I’m trying to find a good stats site to check their strike numbers per fight. Fight metrics is always down

If you're trying to use Fightmetric on mobile you need to "request desktop site" (at least that's what it's called on iOS, Android may be different), after you get the page not available message. Their mobile site doesn't seem to work for whatever reason.

 

[raketmannen]

Hit Jodie +185 on Dimes for line movement then hit Aguilar +125 on BOL. Win 1u with a Ag win and .25u with a Jodie win, no risk. May hit Ag dec for .25u as that is the outcome I actually favor and will then have a straight freeroll on her.

Jodie opened at +185? She closed as a favorite less than 2 months ago, why would they open her as a close to 2-1 underdog now lol

 

[P4p Islam]

Interested to hear why you like Niko here.

I think he has more potential and more heart. I hate to sound cliche'd but he finds ways to win. Ive faded him in every one of his ufc fights except for his most recent.

 

[Stunna77]

I would slightly favor perez. With Recent trends and ages I would favor perez at around 150-160

Perez is a high volume aggressive guy. He throws a lot of effective leg kicks. I think it will be tough for wineland to win a decision unless he hurts him frequently, which is very possible.

I still have to look at wineland. He hasn’t fought since April 2017

I’m trying to find a good stats site to check their strike numbers per fight. Fight metrics is always down

If wineland was more active and had a recent similar style matchup to guage I woudl be a lot more confident, but losing to Albert Morales and arguably losing to Souk is not a good look when facing a talented boxer in Wineland.