UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

[Dianabol]

IMO it's a hard fight to find an edge in. I suspect that the winner will look insanely dominant, whethe rit's a quick sub 1 by Yahya or Sanders beating the brakes off him, but it's hard to decide which is going to happen pre-fight.

Yeah I agree but I gotta lean towards Yahya because of his consistency and because of preparation. We've seen the potential Sanders has to offer in the way he beasted Alcantara but we've also seen that he's a unreliable flake.

I think the odds are pretty much spot on.

Although I feel like if Yahya looked as physically imposing as Sanders, he'd be a bigger favorite.

 

[Gugabe]

Yeah I agree but I gotta lean towards Yahya because of his consistency and because of preparation. We've seen the potential Sanders has to offer in the way he beasted Alcantara but we've also seen that he's a unreliable flake.

I think the odds are pretty much spot on.

Although I feel like if Yahya looked as physically imposing as Sanders, he'd be a bigger favorite.

I don't really rate the Iuri beasting that highly. I suspect that it's partly down to Iuri being done as a UFC-caliber BW, as his only wins in the last while are a miracle kneebar on Sanders and beating the ghost of the ghost of Joe Soto (Who somehow lost to Johns in less than a minute). I'm a little tempted by Rani, who rarely gets deserved respect from the books. But reluctant due to the nature of the matchup.

 

[rev0lver]

He gave up on that kneebar way too easy, he didn't even really grimace before the tap, it was so anti climactic the way he tapped, after the way he had dominated the fight. I know leglocks are scary af but it's live competition and you gotta at least try, he didn't, he just quit. And against Souk, he was knocked down, he could have reacted better than he did but instead he let the ref come in and stop it. That shit really doesn't impress me and it makes me question a fighters heart and will to win.

If you feel a kneebar like that locked in the right way, in the right position, you know it's over. You learn this with certain subs in BJJ. Your best chance at getting out is to punch him in the nuts. Optically yes it looks like he didn't try but realistically there wasn't anything wrong with his decision. And like I said, I think he was actually knocked out against Souk. But a flash knockout where he immediately came to, not fully aware of what's going on. Again though too, I wouldn't be really worried about that against Yahya either way.

I do hear you about the camp switch. I just don't put a ton of stock in camp tiers if I think he already has the right skillset to win

 

[Dianabol]

If you feel a kneebar like that locked in the right way, in the right position, you know it's over. You learn this with certain subs in BJJ. Your best chance at getting out is to punch him in the nuts. Optically yes it looks like he didn't try but realistically there wasn't anything wrong with his decision. And like I said, I think he was actually knocked out against Souk. But a flash knockout where he immediately came to, not fully aware of what's going on. Again though too, I wouldn't be really worried about that against Yahya either way.

I do hear you about the camp switch. I just don't put a ton of stock in camp tiers if I think he already has the right skillset to win

Yeah I know how dangerous kneebars are but this is professional MMA this isn't an advanced BJJ class with some rolling, the way he tapped was like he was at tuesday night BJJ class.

Sanders just tapped and gave up way too easy, like I said he didn't even really grimace, it was a quick tap and a quit job. I think you're being a little biased towards him, he's clearly a mentally flawed fighter.

 

[Dianabol]

I don't really rate the Iuri beasting that highly. I suspect that it's partly down to Iuri being done as a UFC-caliber BW, as his only wins in the last while are a miracle kneebar on Sanders and beating the ghost of the ghost of Joe Soto (Who somehow lost to Johns in less than a minute). I'm a little tempted by Rani, who rarely gets deserved respect from the books. But reluctant due to the nature of the matchup.

Yeah even though Alcantara is past his prime and the oldest BW on the roster, no one had really done what Sanders did to him, I thought it was impressive what Sanders did but whats more impressive is that Alcantara still found a way to win in what seemed like a done deal.

I've been going back and fourth on this fight, initially I was leaning Sanders but then I saw he got dumped and now he's doing his camp at Nashville MMA. And I gotta be real about Yahya too, the guy looks like Yoda but he's a winner and he's consistent. Yahya been in the game since 2002 but he's still looking good, I like that he's at ATT with a good group of training partners.

All that being said I want nothing to do with this fight but Yahya should be slightly favored

 

[rev0lver]

And I gotta be real about Yahya too, the guy looks like Yoda but he's a winner and he's consistent.

I think you're putting a little too much stock in his recent wins. Soto might have been his highest-level opponent in this winning period, and that fight became a mauling. It's important to look at where he's struggled even in these fights that he won. On skill comparisons (which yes I'll admit may be biased) a win on Sanders might be his highest-level win this decade.

 

[Dianabol]

I think you're putting a little too much stock in his recent wins. Soto might have been his highest-level opponent in this winning period, and that fight became a mauling. It's important to look at where he's struggled even in these fights that he won. On skill comparisons (which yes I'll admit may be biased) a win on Sanders might be his highest-level win this decade.

I'll be real about Soto too, he's a bum, gassing out and losing to him is embarrassing.

I know Yahya's wins are not over impressive competition but he does mostly dominate his opponents. Not only does Yahya have a lot more UFC wins than Sanders but I'd also argue that his wins are much more impressive than Sanders two UFC wins over Williams and Blanco. And Sanders win over Williams was not impressive, that was a quite a competitive fight. Most guys finish Williams.

And losing to Souk is just as bad as losing to Soto

Hard to say if Sanders would be Yahya's most impressive win, I don't really know how to rate Sanders TBH

 

[Sunwater]

I think people are not understanding I am 100% ok with losing the money on the bet. I do not expect to win.

I already forgot about it.

I just want to go to my account in 2 weeks and see $ there.

I’m no a sports bettor... I’m a gambler.
I play poker to earn $ on the side. This is just fun to me.

Ok, good luck man. I know your type cus I was just like you, hell, I probably still am. Used to make plenty of 3+leg parleys for disposable bits of money a while back for the fun of it. Biggest one was when I parlayed the whole UFN 88 card and my last leg was Thomas Almeida vs Garbrandt who was being hyped so hot back then. I didn't even know Cody very well back then, didn't do any homework and thought he was some wrestler (him being from TAM) so I hedged with Cody DEC and well.... You know how that went.

Only reason I'm telling you to use some discretion is because you seem to be on some kind of tilt during this downswing of yours, which we all know is when you need to use the best bankroll-management. I play a lot of poker as well and a few of my good friends are top Euro poker players who would all advise the same thing. $200 losses will stack up quick.

Anyways, have fun.

 

[Gugabe]

I'll be real about Soto too, he's a bum, gassing out and losing to him is embarrassing.

I know Yahya's wins are not over impressive competition but he does mostly dominate his opponents. Not only does Yahya have a lot more UFC wins than Sanders but I'd also argue that his wins are much more impressive than Sanders two UFC wins over Williams and Blanco. And Sanders win over Williams was not impressive, that was a quite a competitive fight. Most guys finish Williams.

And losing to Souk is just as bad as losing to Soto

Hard to say if Sanders would be Yahya's most impressive win, I don't really know how to rate Sanders TBH

Getting done with Souk's win condition isn't that bad a loss, IMO. I was huge on the u2.5 in Souk-Sanders and small on Souk KO since I figured Sanders'd either annihilate Souk or give him plenty of shots at the walk-off KO he'd need. Souk has serious finishing instinct lapses, but he had quite a few knockdowns across his first UFC bouts.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I think I will play this threesome parlay

Luke Sanders-I believe his tdd will work and he will piece up Rani in stand up
Angela Hill - She is better than Cortney in stand up, Cortney has better ground game and cardio but her wrestling sucks.
Markus Perez- Sanchez sucks imo and he lost his 2 last fights by tko/ko Perez should win this fight.

Oh btw there is a rumor that Glover is out from ufc fight night 137

 

[Jamah]

I think I will play this threesome parlay

Luke Sanders-I believe his tdd will work and he will piece up Rani in stand up
Angela Hill - She is better than Cortney in stand up, Cortney has better ground game and cardio but her wrestling sucks.
Markus Perez- Sanchez sucks imo and he lost his 2 last fights by tko/ko Perez should win this fight.

Oh btw there is a rumor that Glover is out from ufc fight night 137

It's not a rumor, Glover is injured.

 

[Larthus]

I've been betting MMA for only 2 years but have made a large chunk of money off of 2 - 3 fighter parlays. Might just be beginners luck. I appreciate the perspective from the anti-parlayers here, will incorporate more straight bets into my game moving forward

 

[Itsnotthatseriousmydude]

Yeah I know how dangerous kneebars are but this is professional MMA this isn't an advanced BJJ class with some rolling, the way he tapped was like he was at tuesday night BJJ class.

Sanders just tapped and gave up way too easy, like I said he didn't even really grimace, it was a quick tap and a quit job. I think you're being a little biased towards him, he's clearly a mentally flawed fighter.

That sub to me had absolutely nothing to do with “pure skill” and more to do with Sanders having a total bonehead moment, which might be even more worrying. Dude im a black belt at Renzos, I roll with guys who eat breathe and sleep leg locks and I can’t imagine getting caught in a knee bar like that. I didn’t believe he was in trouble until he was tapping, he had so many opportunities to defend it and just didn’t do anything.

 

[rev0lver]

Markus Perez- Sanchez sucks imo and he lost his 2 last fights by tko/ko Perez should win this fight.

Did you actually watch those fights or are you just looking at his record lol. Sanchez was beating Anthony Smith pretty cleanly before gassing a little bit and Smith taking advantage. Same with his last fight where the ref could've stopped it in the 1st in his favor. Sanchez is an excellent wrestler who matches up well here.

 

[mkess101]

That sub to me had absolutely nothing to do with “pure skill” and more to do with Sanders having a total bonehead moment, which might be even more worrying. Dude im a black belt at Renzos, I roll with guys who eat breathe and sleep leg locks and I can’t imagine getting caught in a knee bar like that. I didn’t believe he was in trouble until he was tapping, he had so many opportunities to defend it and just didn’t do anything.

Kneebars can obviously damage the leg, but (and if you are a black belt you already know this obviously) straight leglocks like that are more about pain than the worry of severe damage to your knee.

I'm just saying that as someone who was allowed to use straight leglocks like that very early on in my training but had to wait a long time before being allowed to do heel hooks (or even work on defending heel hooks). Those are where the real danger is in ruining the ligaments and tendons because by the time you feel the pain and tap it's often too late and your knee is screwed.

In a UFC level MMA fight, a very quick tap to any straight leglock at the very least should raise some eyebrows. I get quick taps when (for example) you had a beast like Palhares latching on to heel hooks and shredding all sorts of dudes knees.

 

[rev0lver]

That sub to me had absolutely nothing to do with “pure skill” and more to do with Sanders having a total bonehead moment, which might be even more worrying. Dude im a black belt at Renzos, I roll with guys who eat breathe and sleep leg locks and I can’t imagine getting caught in a knee bar like that. I didn’t believe he was in trouble until he was tapping, he had so many opportunities to defend it and just didn’t do anything.

He did poorly defend the setup, but once Iuri had it in the way he did (full body weight on the leg, legs triangled on his) I don't think he had any realistic escapes.

 

[MT6ix]

I think the Dariush fight is a good example of watching MJ against a strong but not Khabib-level grappler. Johnson should have won the fight (all media outlets scored in his favor). The Elkins loss was unfortunate, but it shows that he hasn't given up on anything. He's still very game.

I don't think Fili can outbox him, and I don't think his grappling is strong enough to win on that alone. Fili has a tendency to score takedowns but not do enough with it. His top control game isn't that strong and I can't see him holding MJ down for entire rounds. The fight should be on the feet long enough for MJ to score enough points or a KO

I just finished watching tape on Andre Fili and Michael Johnson.

I'm more or less in 100% agree with you. Fili landed some really good single and double takedowns against Bermudez off leg kicks, his timing was really good. I do think he lands some takedowns against Johnson but the problem is he doesn't do anything with his takedowns, he doesn't have good top control or look to take their backs or use takedowns to set up submissions, he only does it to score points, so as a result his opponents get up quick. I think Fili is a blue belt in ji jitsu and he doesn't have any submission wins in the UFC and it shows in his ground game. I think he has one or two submissions pre UFC.

On the feet, Johnson has a clear advantage, cleaner striker with quicker hand speed and Johnson is a southpaw, so Fili won't be able to use his switch stance to southpaw to land his one two followed by the bodykick in the southpaw stance. They both have essentially the same reach (Johnson 73.5' inch reach and Fili 74' inch reach). The thing that would concern me as a Fili bettor is Bermudez who was at a 8' inch reach disadvantage in the Fili fight was landing a lot on the feet and Johnson has a lot quicker hand speed and same reach and way better striker than Bermudez. If Fili didn't land the takedowns against Bermudez, he loses that fight. In the Calvin Kattar fight, Fili was only having success in the southpaw stance, once he went orthodox, he was getting outstruck, same thing will happen in the Johnson fight.

The only way Johnson loses is if he gets taken down and submitted but Fili doesn't have good top control like you mentioned and Johnson should be able to get up and Fili doesn't have the submission skills to get a submission.

It's just hard laying juice on Johnson, but it's a favourable fight for him that he should win.

 

[Dianabol]

I just finished watching tape on Andre Fili and Michael Johnson.

I'm more or less in 100% agree with you. Fili landed some really good single and double takedowns against Bermudez off leg kicks, his timing was really good. I do think he lands some takedowns against Johnson but the problem is he doesn't do anything with his takedowns, he doesn't have good top control or look to take their backs or use takedowns to set up submissions, he only does it to score points, so as a result his opponents get up quick. I think Fili is a blue belt in ji jitsu and he doesn't have any submission wins in the UFC and it shows in his ground game. I think he has one or two submissions pre UFC.

On the feet, Johnson has a clear advantage, cleaner striker with quicker hand speed and Johnson is a southpaw, so Fili won't be able to use his switch stance to southpaw to land his one two followed by the bodykick in the southpaw stance. They both have essentially the same reach (Johnson 73.5' inch reach and Fili 74' inch reach). The thing that would concern me as a Fili bettor is Bermudez who was at a 8' inch reach disadvantage in the Fili fight was landing a lot on the feet and Johnson has a lot quicker hand speed and same reach and way better striker than Bermudez. If Fili didn't land the takedowns against Bermudez, he loses that fight. In the Calvin Kattar fight, Fili was only having success in the southpaw stance, once he went orthodox, he was getting outstruck, same thing will happen in the Johnson fight.

The only way Johnson loses is if he gets taken down and submitted but Fili doesn't have good top control like you mentioned and Johnson should be able to get up and Fili doesn't have the submission skills to get a submission.

It's just hard laying juice on Johnson, but it's a favourable fight for him that he should win.

What more does MJ have to do to prove to you he's a bum?

Going on a 1-5 losing streak not good enough?
Being the most unreliable favorite in the UFC not good enough? (3-7 as a favorite)
Taking Career changing beatings in recent fights
Dropping a weight class out of career desperation
500 UFC record 9-9
Clearly on a decline, should be the last guy you wanna bet as a favorite

Fili on the other hand is looking the best he's ever looked and he's going to take MJ down in this fight, if he can take down Bermudez 4 times he'll damn sure take MJ down and MJ isn't good at getting up

MJ will look good in the 1st round like he usually does but then he's gonna fade and flake out mentally as he usually does, he's a massive front runner with massive holes in his game.

It's a real mystery to me as to why people still wanna bet MJ as a favorite, you're all just banging your heads against the wall at this point. I'm sure a lot of you bet him as a favorite in his last two fight as well, how'd that go?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Oracle bet Fili

 

[rev0lver]

It's a real mystery to me as to why people still wanna bet MJ as a favorite, you're all just banging your heads against the wall at this point. I'm sure a lot of you bet him as a favorite in his last two fight as well, how'd that go?

It's not really about betting him as a favorite or not. That doesn't affect our personal analyses of the matchup itself. I was against him in most of his losses. I bet Gaethje but not Elkins. Elkins seems to try for subs more than Fili does, and he's shown us a lot more toughness. This matchup I see in MJ's favor, and I like that his recent record looks pretty poor because it pushes the odds more in my favor. 3-7 as a favorite means nothing to me compared to having an opponent who struggles against strong strikers and doesn't demonstrate a strong enough factor against MJ's main weaknesses.

Should be also worth mentioning that in two of those recent fights where he was a favorite, 1 he had his opponent nearly finished in the first, and 1 he probably got robbed in. I wouldn't want to bet on that again. And none of the others seem to compare to Fili at all.