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I'm a political news junkie, and a procrastinator, so naturally I spend at least an hour every day (or more) perusing polls and political forecasts regarding the impending "blue wave" election. I was looking at the RealClearPolitics election maps today and I noticed something funny: there are almost NO RECENT POLLS of races in which Democrats are defending against Republican pickups. In particular, there is a notable absence of polls conducted after October, and the post-Kavanaugh fallout.
Here are some examples:
Consider the recent example of Minnesota's 8th Congressional district, which started out rated as a "safe/likely" Democratic seat, then changed to a "toss up," and then to a "leans GOP" after polling was conducted there. The most recent poll (10/14) shows Republican Pete Stauber beating Someone Radinovich by a whopping +15 point margin! The only other poll (9/6), showed Stauber +1, which was in itself a shock to Democrats. If no polling were conducted on MN-8, Democrats would be able to fall back on its "presumptive" Democratic leanings. Now that they know the truth, they are worried.
BOTTOM LINE: The Democrats' habit of ignoring or failing to inquire about inconvenient numbers will probably bite them in the ass (again). Pollsters and media outlets, which need to regain public confidence after losing it in 2016, will once again be in a position of explaining how they missed the obvious.
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For further reference: I did early analyses of possible outcomes for House and Senate races several months ago. I expect the final midterm outcomes will closely mirror my analyses.
Here are some examples:
- The Montana Senate race between Senator Jon Tester (D) and Matt Rosendale (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +3 in Tester's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 9/22.
- The Indiana Senate race between Senator Joe Donnelly (D) and Mike Braun (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +2.5 in Donnelly's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 10/2.
- The Missouri Senate race between Senator Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +.5 in Hawley's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 10/2.
- In the race for Minnesota's 7th Congressional district, where Trump won by about +30 in 2016, there is NO POLLING whatsoever. The long-time Democrat incumbent, Collin Peterson, won by a surprisingly tight 5-point margin in 2016.
- Almost all House races rated "likely" or "leans" Democrat have been the subject of NO POLLING whatsoever, or no recent polls. By contrast, just about every "likely" or "leans" Republican district has been subject to polling, many of them recent.
Consider the recent example of Minnesota's 8th Congressional district, which started out rated as a "safe/likely" Democratic seat, then changed to a "toss up," and then to a "leans GOP" after polling was conducted there. The most recent poll (10/14) shows Republican Pete Stauber beating Someone Radinovich by a whopping +15 point margin! The only other poll (9/6), showed Stauber +1, which was in itself a shock to Democrats. If no polling were conducted on MN-8, Democrats would be able to fall back on its "presumptive" Democratic leanings. Now that they know the truth, they are worried.
BOTTOM LINE: The Democrats' habit of ignoring or failing to inquire about inconvenient numbers will probably bite them in the ass (again). Pollsters and media outlets, which need to regain public confidence after losing it in 2016, will once again be in a position of explaining how they missed the obvious.
__________________
For further reference: I did early analyses of possible outcomes for House and Senate races several months ago. I expect the final midterm outcomes will closely mirror my analyses.
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