Democratic Strategy for Generating "Blue Wave" Hype: DO NOT POLL inconvenient races?

[JamesRussler]

I'm a political news junkie, and a procrastinator, so naturally I spend at least an hour every day (or more) perusing polls and political forecasts regarding the impending "blue wave" election. I was looking at the RealClearPolitics election maps today and I noticed something funny: there are almost NO RECENT POLLS of races in which Democrats are defending against Republican pickups. In particular, there is a notable absence of polls conducted after October, and the post-Kavanaugh fallout.

Here are some examples:

• The Montana Senate race between Senator Jon Tester (D) and Matt Rosendale (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +3 in Tester's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 9/22.
• The Indiana Senate race between Senator Joe Donnelly (D) and Mike Braun (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +2.5 in Donnelly's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 10/2.
  
• The Missouri Senate race between Senator Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +.5 in Hawley's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 10/2.
  
• In the race for Minnesota's 7th Congressional district, where Trump won by about +30 in 2016, there is NO POLLING whatsoever. The long-time Democrat incumbent, Collin Peterson, won by a surprisingly tight 5-point margin in 2016.
• Almost all House races rated "likely" or "leans" Democrat have been the subject of NO POLLING whatsoever, or no recent polls. By contrast, just about every "likely" or "leans" Republican district has been subject to polling, many of them recent.

Why don't pollsters and media outlets poll Congressional races which are rated "likely" or "leans" Democrat? The answer is rather straightforward—because the MSM / DEMOCRATS DO NOT WANT TO KNOW. Once the media sees a poll which shows MT, IN, MO, MN-7, etc., breaking for Republicans, they will be forced to report on the state of those races, thus destroying the narrative of a "Blue Wave," and harming Democratic morale. On the other hand, by polling only races with Republican-held seats, the MSM / Democrats can justify calling those races "toss-ups," even if they are not actually terribly competitive for Dems. As a result, Democrats / MSM are lulled into a having a false sense of confidence, and races in which Democrats are losing badly fall under the radar. Dems / MSM never see it coming, because they never ask.

Consider the recent example of Minnesota's 8th Congressional district, which started out rated as a "safe/likely" Democratic seat, then changed to a "toss up," and then to a "leans GOP" after polling was conducted there. The most recent poll (10/14) shows Republican Pete Stauber beating Someone Radinovich by a whopping +15 point margin! The only other poll (9/6), showed Stauber +1, which was in itself a shock to Democrats. If no polling were conducted on MN-8, Democrats would be able to fall back on its "presumptive" Democratic leanings. Now that they know the truth, they are worried.

BOTTOM LINE: The Democrats' habit of ignoring or failing to inquire about inconvenient numbers will probably bite them in the ass (again). Pollsters and media outlets, which need to regain public confidence after losing it in 2016, will once again be in a position of explaining how they missed the obvious.
__________________

For further reference: I did early analyses of possible outcomes for House and Senate races several months ago. I expect the final midterm outcomes will closely mirror my analyses.

 

[Rational Poster]

Or maybe the media has a conservative bias?

 

[JamesRussler]

Or maybe the media has a conservative bias?

How does anything I posted show a Conservative bias?

 

[58miles]

I'm a political news junkie, and a procrastinator, so naturally I spend at least an hour every day (or more) perusing polls and political forecasts regarding the impending "blue wave" election. I was looking at the RealClearPolitics election maps today and I noticed something funny: there are almost NO RECENT POLLS of races in which Democrats are defending against Republican pickups. In particular, there is a notable absence of polls conducted after October, and the post-Kavanaugh fallout.

Here are some examples:

• The Montana Senate race between Senator Jon Tester (D) and Matt Rosendale (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +3 in Tester's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 9/22.
• The Indiana Senate race between Senator Joe Donnelly (D) and Mike Braun (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +2.5 in Donnelly's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 10/2.
  
• The Missouri Senate race between Senator Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R) is extremely close, with an average margin of +.5 in Hawley's favor. However, the most recent poll was on 10/2.
  
• In the race for Minnesota's 7th Congressional district, where Trump won by about +30 in 2016, there is NO POLLING whatsoever. The long-time Democrat incumbent, Collin Peterson, won by a surprisingly tight 5-point margin in 2016.
• Almost all House races rated "likely" or "leans" Democrat have been the subject to NO POLLING whatsoever, or no recent polls. By contrast, just about every "likely" or "leans" Republican district has been subject to polling, many of them recent.

Why don't pollsters and media outlets poll Congressional races which are rated "likely" or "leans" Democrat? The answer is rather straightforward—because the MSM / DEMOCRATS DO NOT WANT TO KNOW. Once the media sees a poll which shows MT, IN, MO, MN-7, etc., breaking for Republicans, they will be forced to report on the state of those races, thus destroying the narrative of a "Blue Wave," and harming Democratic morale. On the other hand, by polling only races with Republican-held seats, the MSM / Democrats can justify calling those races "toss-ups," even if they are not actually terribly competitive for Dems. As a result, Democrats / MSM are lulled into a having a false sense of confidence, and races in which Democrats are losing badly fall under the radar. Dems / MSM never see it coming, because they never ask.

Consider the recent example of Minnesota's 8th Congressional district, which started out rated as a "safe/likely" Democratic seat, then changed to a "toss up," and then to a "leans GOP" after polling was conducted there. The most recent poll (10/14) shows Republican Pete Stauber beating Someone Radinovich by a whopping +15 point margin! The only other poll (9/6), showed Stauber +1, which was in itself a shock to Democrats. If no polling were conducted on MN-8, Democrats would be able to fall back on its "presumptive" Democratic leanings. Now that they know the truth, they are worried.

BOTTOM LINE: The Democrats' habit of ignoring or failing to inquire about inconvenient numbers will probably bite them in the ass (again). Pollsters and media outlets, which need to regain public confidence after losing it in 2016, will once again be in a position of explaining how they missed the obvious.
__________________

For further reference: I did early analyses of possible outcomes for House and Senate races several months ago. I expect the final midterm outcomes will closely mirror my analyses.

The huge majority of these public polls are conducted by independent outfits and not the Democratic party. Pollsters only have finite resources to spend on individual races and races that are not competitive for some reason or races in places that don't attract much public attention don't get polled as often. That's why you don't see polls very often for the races you cited so you can now come up with another lamebrain conspiracy theory.

 

[Rational Poster]

How does anything I posted show a Conservative bias?

The Conservative dominated media is helping ferment a level of confidence among Democrat voters based on misinformation, like they did in 2016, because Republicans can't win if all the Democrats actually turn up to vote.

 

[all caps]

I'm a political news junkie, and a procrastinator, so naturally I spend at least an hour every day (or more) perusing polls and political forecasts regarding the impending "blue wave" election

I wanted to make fun of you for this...

But the amount of time I spend here leaves me in a not so good position to be able to do that

 

[JamesRussler]

The huge majority of these public polls are conducted by independent outfits and not the Democratic party. Pollsters only have finite resources to spend on individual races and races that are not competitive for some reason or races in places that don't attract much public attention don't get polled as often. That's why you don't see polls very often for the races you cited so you can now come up with another lamebrain conspiracy theory.

It's not a conspiracy theory. It's more of an idiocy theory or a complacency theory. I genuinely wanted to know the states of these races, and I noticed a conspicuous absence of data on particular subset of races. My theory is simply that the Democrats, and their allies in the media, aren't inquiring about the state of inconvenient races. For some reason, they believe it's better to ignore their problems rather than confront them.

 

[JamesRussler]

The Conservative dominated media is helping ferment a level of confidence among Democrat voters based on misinformation, like they did in 2016, because Republicans can't win if all the Democrats actually turn up to vote.

Okay, now that's a new one.

 

[58miles]

It's not a conspiracy theory. It's more of an idiocy theory or a complacency theory. I genuinely wanted to know the states of these races, and I noticed a conspicuous absence of data on particular subset of races. My theory is simply that the Democrats, and their allies in the media, aren't inquiring about the state of inconvenient races. For some reason, they believe it's better to ignore their problems rather than confront them.

You would know the state of the races if you actually had any desire to find out, besides some races for the reasons I just stated don't get polled very often. It's not a giant conspiracy so you can now go back to obsessing about the Deep State.

 

[JamesRussler]

You would know the state of the races if you actually had any desire to find out, besides some races for the reasons I just stated don't get polled very often. It's not a giant conspiracy so you can now go back to obsessing about the Deep State.

Please enlighten me with your inside information, @58miles . How is Jon Tester doing at the moment?

 

[EradiatedHaggis]

Okay, now that's a new one.

Did you forget where you are posting? Expect incredible amounts of stupidity, to appear from someone.

 

[Philtard]

Or maybe the media has a conservative bias?

I remember watching foxes war on journalism once.

 

[Rational Poster]

Okay, now that's a new one.

I just thought we were flinging bullshit theories that sound plausible yet are actually based on nothing in this thread.

 

[A Very Serious Cat]

The Conservative dominated media is helping ferment a level of confidence among Democrat voters based on misinformation, like they did in 2016, because Republicans can't win if all the Democrats actually turn up to vote.

Your username is so ironic. It's brilliant.

 

[Lead]

Montana- There are four polls total. 6/11-6/13, 7/8-7/10, 9/10-9/14, 9/19-9/22. The past three were all about 3+ Dem.
Indiana- Three polls. 8/26-8/29 D+3, 9/8-9/11 R+2, 9/29-10/2 D+2
Missouri- There are a bunch of polls with this race since April and it looks like it's gone back and forth multiple times. Polling didn't stop when either person took control.

None of those examples make me come even close to thinking of the premise of your conspiracy here. Even before you factor in these all are different polling groups so a complete blackout orchestrated by a party just seems impossible. I really can't see how you believe this.

 

[58miles]

Please enlighten me with your inside information, @58miles . How is Jon Tester doing at the moment?

Tester leads according to the latest poll 49-45. You may now return to your regularly scheduled conspiracy theory.

 

[bobgeese]

Polls?

 

[SONNEN]

The huge majority of these public polls are conducted by independent outfits and not the Democratic party. Pollsters only have finite resources to spend on individual races and races that are not competitive for some reason or races in places that don't attract much public attention don't get polled as often. That's why you don't see polls very often for the races you cited so you can now come up with another lamebrain conspiracy theory.

same with the voting hours, unless you believe in some lamebrain conspiracy theory.

 

[SONNEN]

The Conservative dominated media is helping ferment a level of confidence among Democrat voters based on misinformation, like they did in 2016, because Republicans can't win if all the Democrats actually turn up to vote.

Someone would have to bus them all in to vote, bribe people and pass a law requiring no id! Democratic Domination!

 

[JamesRussler]

Montana- There are four polls total. 6/11-6/13, 7/8-7/10, 9/10-9/14, 9/19-9/22. The past three were all about 3+ Dem.
Indiana- Three polls. 8/26-8/29 D+3, 9/8-9/11 R+2, 9/29-10/2 D+2
Missouri- There are a bunch of polls with this race since April and it looks like it's gone back and forth multiple times. Polling didn't stop when either person took control.

None of those examples make me come even close to thinking of the premise of your conspiracy here. Even before you factor in these all are different polling groups so a complete blackout orchestrated by a party just seems impossible. I really can't see how you believe this.

My "conspiracy" is actually proven by your post. None of the races you mentioned have a poll after 10/2. Why? You would think Democrats would want to know the states of these races, especially since we're coming down to the wire. On the other hand, there has been a veritable avalanche of polls on districts held by Republicans incumbents, even where there is no indication that the races would be competitive. Don't you think that's a little... incongruous?

Anyway, I don't think it's conspiracy. I think it's just a byproduct of Dems' complacency and wishful thinking. The headlines on November 7th will be "Republicans mount surprise electoral victory, again."